Wake Up You Jobless Fools!
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Outside of all the year-end retrospective news reviews, and year-ahead idealistic and conscientious considerations, the market still has one day of data to digest before it can call it a decade. A regular economic report highlights the wire today, one which offers surface dwellers reason to freeze to death. The cautious hermit types might do well, because below the surface of today's jobless claims report is something important to consider. It might just save you a foolish dive into equity euphoria at perhaps precisely the wrong time.
Wake Up You Jobless Fools!
Weekly Jobless Claims
Thursday's regular Unemployment Claims Report offered the quick-actors/little-thinkers some good news today. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at 432,000 for the week ending December 26, down from the revised prior week count of 454K. Economists were looking for a meganormous 460K new benefits filers! And get this: the four-week moving average on this mortifying data point also improved 5,500, to 460,250. The insured unemployment rate now even stands at just 3.8%, and to imagine, it was as high as 3.9% just a few weeks ago! So pop the champagne corks early right? It's time to celebrate no? Nada!
"Remember... when you were swimming in good times full of fat stocks, easy money, free homes and cars, and enjoying a generally drunken state?"
Sorry for pooping on your party again… Remember we did that years ago when you were swimming in good times full of fat stocks, easy money, free homes and cars, and enjoying a generally drunken state? Remember, you did not want to hear about it then; the insane idea that many of your banks would go under and that times would change. Still, we faced the lynch mob and told you the truth. And while labeled an "Armageddon Analyst" (we liked it) by some of those folks who wanted to make a few more pence off ya, we accepted our role as the party pooper you might someday listen to. Some of you are still reading, and we have had our off-days since, so we thank you. Don't get me wrong though, we have hardly ever lost our prescient touch. However, we have scribbled a bland paragraph from time to time, and have shared a few less-than-intriguing ideas. (Cue theme from Rocky I here)
BUT WE'RE BACK! AND WITH A VENGEANCE!
We are determined to remind you why you started reading "The Greek" in the first place. If you have been following us over recent weeks, we are guessing you have already sensed it. You caught a whiff didn't you? That's not a dead mouse you're sniffing; it is rather the return of truth and insight! AND PASSION!
So were you excited this morning along with all the foolish never-did-their-homework types? Were you sure of swift improvement in the employment picture? After all, ONLY 400K plus folks filed for first time unemployment benefits, meaning they just lost their job. That's great news right?!? No it's not! Wake up!!!
"It's the week before Christmas, and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even the turk."
It's the week before Christmas, and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even the turk. Now, be careful, because by "turk" we do not mean our sometimes roughhousing neighbors to the East of my Greek ancestral realm (shout out to Tolga the "Happy Helmet"). Nada! We are using American football slang, be-ist the season of sizzling pigskin. The turk is the guy who tells you you've been cut from the team. Nobody really likes him, and he's generally to be avoided.
Who fires anyone a few days before the holidays!? Well maybe Scrooge, but he was fictional! Sometimes you have to remind Americans under 40 of that, given how pervasive Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Marvel (NYSE: MVL) have become, and to think, they're now combining their mind-swelling powers… If they add Scholastic's (Nasdaq: SCHL) Harry Potter, we will truly be facing the Legion of Doom in the next decade!
Anywho, nobody fires anybody before Christmas! No, they wait until you are about to go on vacation, because then, they are certain you will just decide to go, rather than returning to your cubicle the next day with a machine gun. Usually they are right too… and you might even decide not to sue them for wrongful (your expletive here).
Anyway, everyone and anybody in their right mind waits at least until January 2nd to break your heart and the collective legs of your Little Tim Tim and Sally Sue. So let's just wait and see until mid-to-late January before we form an opinion on how well the labor market is holding up. Now, don't get me wrong; we expect employment to improve. After all, somebody has to pick up the trash, and the government can keep printing worthless dollars to pay people to make windmills out of paper cartons at least until next term.
Oh, and Happy New Year if I don’t scribble ya sooner…By the way, have you heard about Apophis?
Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in: Robert Half Int'l (NYSE: RHI), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn Ferry Int'l (NYSE: KFY) and anybody cynical about losing their job, or drinking eggnog.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Labels: Labor Market