Have a Holly Jolly Christmas Week

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Mentioned Tickers: (NYSE: CAG, JBL, OMN, WAG, AM, VOL, FNM, FRE, ESV, CMC, PKE, RHT, LNN, MU, (Nasdaq: CVGW, CTAS, PRGS, FINL)

This holiday shortened week will still produce several key economic data points, so we suggest laying off the eggnog until Thursday's close of trading. Even so, we wish you have a holly jolly Christmas week this year!

Have a Holly Jolly Christmas

Monday

Monday's economic report slate includes only manufacturing data from the Chicago Fed. Last week offered up the monthly manufacturing surveys for the New York and Philadelphia markets. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed activity slowed in the New York region, as the index dropped to 2.55, from the 23.51 reading in November. However, the Philly Fed Index improved to 20.4 in December, illustrating significant month-over-month growth. Monday's reading of the Midwestern region could offer information that tips the balance and perhaps allows directional vision.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) comes up against a deadline to propose position limits and exemptions for energy derivatives. Dubai World's western creditors will vote on how to handle its freezing of $26 billion of debt.

Monday's corporate earnings schedule includes ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG), Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), OMNOVA Solutions (NYSE: OMN), Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), Calavo Growers (Nasdaq: CVGW) and Volt Information Sciences (NYSE: VOL).

Tuesday

The final revision of third quarter GDP might grab media attention Tuesday, but little new information should come from the actual data release. Economists forecast the recession ending quarter growth originally posted will be revised slightly lower, to 2.7%, from 2.8% at last check. Corporate Profits are reported along with the GDP data. At last check, Q3 profits grew 14.5% over Q2 but still stood 7.2% short of the prior year period.

The regular ICSC Weekly Same-Store Sales Report will be released in the pre-market. Last week's data covering the period ending December 12 showed a week-over-week gain of 0.4% (Prior Week -1.3%) and year-to-year change of +2.4% (+2.6%).

Existing Home Sales will be reported for the month of November at 10:00 a.m. November's sales may have been impacted by the timing of the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit expected expiration and later renewal, but economists are generally looking for a slight increase nonetheless for November. The consensus of experts sees the annual pace of home sales improving to 6.25 million, versus the 6.10 million reported in October. Existing home inventory improved to 7.0 months in October, down from 8.0 months in September.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will post its House Price Index for October at 10:00 a.m. FHFA's take on September produced no change from August price levels.The index is based on the pricing of single-family housing, with data provided by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). This data produces an imperfect result, since it is limited by the ceiling amount for conforming loans purchased by these government-sponsored enterprises (GSE).

OPEC is scheduled to meet Tuesday in Angola to discuss quota levels. Oil ministers are expected to keep production steady this time around.

Ensco (NYSE: ESV) is scheduled to hold a special shareholders' meeting. Tuesday's EPS schedule includes reports from Cintas Corp. (Nasdaq: CTAS), Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC), Park Electrochemical (NYSE: PKE), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), Lindsay (NYSE: LNN), Progress Software (Nasdaq: PRGS), Micron Technology (NYSE: MU), IMMOEAST IMMOBILIEN (OTC: IMOIF.PK), Hornbach Holdings VZ (Frankfurt: HBH3.F) and Hornbach - Baumarkt AG (Frankfurt: HBM.F).

Wednesday

Wednesday brings five key economic reports. First thing in the AM, look for the Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Activity Report. Last week's data for the week ending December 11, showed a slight 0.3% improvement in the Market Composite Index. The Purchase Index of mortgage volume decreased 0.1%, as activity comes to a standstill over the holidays. The Refinance Index improved 0.9%, on relatively flat mortgage rates. The average contracted fixed rate mortgage rate on 30-year mortgages rose to 4.92% from 4.88% in the prior week. The 15-year rate stuck at 4.33%.

Personal Income & Outlays will be reported for the month of November at 8:30 AM. Economists see Personal Income rising 0.5% in November, versus the 0.2% gain seen in October. Personal Spending is forecast to increase by 0.6%, versus the 0.7% gain in October. Core PCE Price Inflation is expected to increase 0.1%, versus the 0.2% jump in October.

New Home Sales will be reported for the month of November at 10:00 AM. The annual pace of home sales is seen rising to 440K, versus the 430K pace set in October. New Home inventory dropped to its lowest mark since 1971 in October, sitting at 6.7 months.

Consumer Sentiment, as measured by Reuters and the University of Michigan, is set for 9:55 AM release. The economists' consensus sees the confidence measure inching to 73.5, from the 73.4 mark seen mid-month. Recall, that mid-December measurement represented significant gain from the start of the period.

For the week ending December 11, the EIA's Petroleum Status Report showed crude oil inventory decreased by 3.7 million barrels, though stores still stood above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline stocks increased by 0.9 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels, as the weather turned blustery in the Northeast. Expect more of the same when this week's data is reported.

Japan's markets will be closed Wednesday, but the day's earnings per share slate includes news from Finish Line (Nasdaq: FINL) and American Greetings (NYSE: AM).

Thursday

Durable Goods Orders will be reported for the month of November at 8:30 AM. In October, orders fell 0.6%, and dropped 1.3% when excluding transportation. However, October's decline matched against a spike in September, so this volatile measure's trend line is likely somewhere in between the two months activity. Economists are forecasting a 0.5% gain for November.

Initial Jobless Claims will also be reported at their usual 8:30 time slot. In the week ending December 12, new benefits claims filers inched higher to 480K, from 473K. However, the four-week moving average still moved 5,250 lower to 467,500, as recent weeks have shown marked improvement. Economists are looking for a reading of 470K this week.

The EIA's Natural Gas Report showed natural gas stocks decreased by 207 Bcf in the week ended December 11. Natural gas stores were still 433 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

The Fed will report on the state of its balance sheet at 4:30 p.m. Money Supply will also be reported the same day.

Due to Christmas Eve, US equity markets will close at 1 p.m. and the bond market at 2 p.m. Many markets across the world will be closed the full day for the holiday.

Friday

Merry Christmas! Markets around the world will be closed for the holiday. Please do have a holly jolly Christmas this year.


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