Apocalypse Now or Later?

Greek Readers will note from our initial 2012 forecast:

"Any further upside rally in early 2012 should be contained in both price and duration. If prices fall below 1242 without reaching fresh highs, wave 3 down has already begun. Instead, a definitive break above resistance at 1292 would suggest an alternate wave count and could ultimately lead prices as high as 1350 before wave 3 down begins."

Prices for the S&P Index touched nearly 1345 intraday. The target for alternative Elliot Wave count is now nearly satisfied for an ending diagonal pattern. Prices should turn down from here.

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Apocalypse Now - Updated Technical View

Since our 2012 technical forecast was issued earlier this year, S&P prices have closed right at key resistance of 1292. Apart from the further maturation of the current rally, not much else has changed.

Figure 1 below divides intermediate Elliot Waves into sub-waves in order to illustrate further the maturity of the current rally:

• Intermediate Wave 1 down, shown with black dotted line, consisted of five sub-waves (i) through (v), each of which is depicted with a red dotted line


• Note that sub-wave (iii) down was the largest in magnitude


• Countertrend rallies consist of three-wave movements, in this case shown
  as A through C, and depicted with blue dotted lines


• Sub-wave C can be further subdivided into 5 smaller waves (not shown)

It would appear that the S&P is completing the fifth of five sub-waves within wave C of intermediate Wave 2. Note that daily stochastics are overbought at 94% and that S&P prices closed right at key resistance of 1292.

Once this move is complete, Intermediate Wave 3 down should begin. According to Elliot Wave theory, the magnitude of this wave will exceed that of Wave 1 down, which featured a 300 point drop.

I believe investors should consider taking trading profits from this recent rally to avoid the coming “stock-apocalypse.”

This article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), PowerShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (NYSE: QLD), ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Coming Stock Apocalypse

Doomsday, Dec 21st 2012, may be almost a year away according to the Mayan calendar, but catastrophic downside for stock market indices is likely more imminent. Even in this Presidential election year, a return to March 2009 Bear Market lows is a definite possibility. Perhaps the only question is... when?

A Technical View

Against a backdrop of slowing growth and looming debt crises, both in the U.S. and abroad, stock valuations appear to be suspect:

• Based on current forecasts, U.S. debt will likely eclipse GDP in 2012 even as economic growth slows in the United States. Monetary and fiscal policies are unlikely to be supportive in the current environment;


• Bloomberg reports that over $200B in European debt will come due in the first quarter of 2012 and that the Euro Zone will likely enter recession;


• Morgan Stanley has recently revised growth forecasts in emerging markets downward from 6.1% to 5.7%. Even that growth prediction is contingent upon supportive policy decisions from the U.S. and Europe.

Technical analysis also suggests that downside will resume early in 2012. Elliot Wave Theory identifies the current S&P 500 price pattern as the onset of intermediate Wave 3 down (see Figure 1 below). By definition, Wave 3 down includes the largest price move in a five-wave pattern. This would imply a downside target of roughly 950 or less for this wave movement alone.



From the chart in Figure 1, constructed at author's submission of article on January 1st, we can also observe the following:

• Key resistance for the S&P is at the October high of 1292 with key support at the December 20th low of 1242;


• The 50 day moving average remains below the 200 day moving average; note that this is the so-called “death-cross,” which some treat as the defining indicator for bear market conditions;


• Index closing prices are still hovering near the benchmark 200-day moving average;


• Daily Stochastics show that the S&P 500 is currently overbought as a result of the recent but muted “Santa Clause” rally;


• Current price formation is that of a rising bearish wedge.

Any further upside rally in early 2012 should be contained in both price and duration. If prices fall below 1242 without reaching fresh highs, wave 3 down has already begun. Instead, a definitive break above resistance at 1292 would suggest an alternate wave count and could ultimately lead prices as high as 1350 before wave 3 down begins.

Should the rally continue, this final upward move may also foster conditions for a second, confirming “Hindenburg Omen.” The first instance of the indicator was observed on December 19th 2011. A second observation within a month would provide very reliable foreboding.

In any case, Greek readers should consider taking trading profits from this recent rally to avoid the coming "stock-apocalypse."

Disclosure: I have no position currently, however, I intend to sell (short) S&P futures at 1275.50 or higher.

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.