Stocks Should Recover Now - Buy the SPY ETF

When I authored my warnings about market correction in early to mid-August, I also indicated what the cure for stocks would eventually be. One of those factors appears to be about ready to help out, and that is clarification from the Fed. No matter what happens Thursday afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will provide some clarity to investors. Stocks should benefit from the removal of some uncertainty, and I see immediate upside of 2.5% to 5.0% probable for the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) post the Fed meeting. But any gains and the length of duration of upward direction will depend on the specifics of what the Fed does and says. The longer term for stocks and the SPY will continue to depend on the U.S. economy, energy sector issues, emerging market implications, seasonal capital flow factors and the Fed path and accuracy moving forward. See the full report on the stock market and the SPY ETF here. This article may also interest SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM), Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI).

Kaminis is Long SPY. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Sell Stocks Now – There's Trouble Ahead on this Fed Path

That market rally I was enthused about last month was short-lived. I would take long bets off the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) now, as volatility is back and a market correction is possible. Investors are now troubled about a rougher road ahead being laid by Fed steps toward tighter monetary policy. The adjusting market perspective is due to the shocking monthly jobs report just released last Friday. It surprised economists with frosty memories of winters past and expectations for slower economic activity. The all too good news has investors today focused on a perceived higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes sooner rather than later. This is a concern that makes for a rocky road ahead. Stocks should be volatile through the rest of the year and should experience a correction or two. The likelihood of a clear trend-line higher this year is limited by the Fed’s plans. See the full report on the SPY market ETF here. This article will also interest SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA), PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM), Vanguard Total Market (NYSE: VTI) and SPDR S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX) investors.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market – Why it’s Rally Time

The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) faced some volatility to start the year, but it would appear the way ahead is all clear for a rally. Issues that had presented challenges to higher stock prices have been cleared away and capital kept on the sidelines could be put to use now. Evidence is there that this is already underway. See my full report on the stock market rally here.

Market Sector	February 2015	YTD	TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+6.2%	+3.1%	+16.8%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+6.4%	+2.6%	+15.1%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+7.4%	+5.5%	+22.1%
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM)	+6.0%	+3.1%	+6.5%
Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSE: VTI)	+6.2%	+3.4%	+15.5%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

How to Play Stocks Around the Fed Today

Last week I published an article entitled Buy this Trough as the Latest Fed Scare is Unfounded. I continue to expect the Federal Reserve’s FOMC monetary policy decision and press conference to reflect the mild message conveyed by Janet Yellen in her Jackson Hole speech and for stocks to move higher. However, the Fed Forecasts, which will be published today, have sunk stocks in the past and continue to threaten, though perhaps to a lesser extent now that they are better understood. Passive investors in the broader market ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) might want to hedge bets a bit. This article discusses tools for hedging event risk. Rather than placing a long or short bet on the SPY today, I suggest investors hold both call and put options to bet on volatility in the security, whether it move higher or lower. Your risk comes with the lack of a move in the SPY, but if the ETF rises or falls significantly, you should overcome option costs for profit today in my view. Of course, this trade offers lower upside than a naked long or short position. See the full report here.