THIS WEEK: October Lurks

Just when we thought we might enjoy a few weeks of post-Fed folly, the media has to go and remind us of all things scary in October. Whether it be government shutdown or Obamacare, or even that old September favorite, Iran and its dark nuclear program, they are trying to spook us again. It’s working though, because people know very well that malevolent ghosts do walk the Congressional halls in D.C. town and that skeletons can be found around the U.N. this time of year.

This Week

Index ETF	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+19.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+17.7%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+21.1%

Stocks may have a tough time ahead, as the media is already focusing investors on the next fear factor at hand, government shutdown. October is a tough month to begin with historically speaking, but this year it brings with it the ominous threat of a Washington stalemate driving government shutdown. And did I mention that October also offers the start of many new healthcare processes that threaten to shake things up? Fines will start to be issued for noncompliant businesses and doctors, at least as far as I hear from my local political punks on the Upper East Side. What’s a political punk look like on the Upper East Side? Just like a man anywhere else, but a fuming one in a cheap suit, speaking passionately on the street corner with a supermarket delivery boy about Obamacare. It’s that guy!

Economic Events

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected
MONDAY
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	-0.43 (R)	+0.14 (A)
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash	53.9	54.0
Dennis Lockhart Speech
William Dudley Speech
Richard Fisher Speech
TUESDAY
Case Shiller Home Price Index 20-City	+0.9%	+0.8%
FHFA House Price Index	+0.7%	+0.7%
ICSC Weekly Store Sales	-1.6%
-Year-to-Year Pace	+3.2%
Redbook Store Sales	+3.4%
Consumer Confidence	81.5	80.0
Investor Confidence Index	105.1
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	14.0	10.5
Sandra Pianalto Speech
Esther George Speech
WEDNESDAY
Durable Goods Orders	-7.3%	-0.5%
-Orders Ex-Transportation	-0.6%	+1.0%
New Home Sales	394K	425K
Mortgage Activity	+11.2%
EIA Petroleum Status
-Crude Oil Inventory	-4.4 M
-Gasoline Inventory	-1.6 M
THURSDAY
GDP Report	+2.5%	+2.7%
Pending Home Sales	-1.3%	-1.0%
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	-29.4 (+2.7)
Weekly Jobless Claims	309K	330K
EIA Natural Gas Report	46 Bcf
Kansas City Manufacturing Index	8.0	9.0
Jeremy Stein Speech
Narayana Kocherlakota Speech
Esther George Speech
FRIDAY
Personal Income & Outlays
-Income	+0.1%	+0.4%
-Spending	+0.1%	+0.3%
-Core PCE Price Index	+0.1%	+0.1%
Consumer Sentiment	76.8	78.0
Farm Prices
Eric Rosengren Speech
William Dudley Speech
Charles Evans Speech

The economic schedule is like most others, colored with updates on all fronts: from the consumer mood, with two such reports due this week along with an investor sentiment measure and personal spending data; housing reports, with several index updates this week on the state of real estate; manufacturing data, with news arriving on durable goods orders, along with a slew of PMI and regional measures; and a mix of some irregulars, including another revision of GDP data. You’ll also note that the Fed is on tour again, with regional bank presidents and governors speaking about the latest Fed policy issued last week.

Corporate Events

Approaching third quarter earnings season, the schedule is light here except for a good number of homebuilders coming to the fore. Otherwise, the market is talking Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) and the rest of the usual suspects.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
MONDAY
Ennis	NYSE: EBF
S&W Seed	Nasdaq: SANW
Park City Group	NYSE: PCYG
Red Hat	NYSE: RHT
TUESDAY
Carnival	NYSE: CCL
Neogen	Nasdaq: NEOG
Lennar	NYSE: LEN
K.B. Home	NYSE: KBH
Ascena Retail Group	Nasdaq: ASNA
Copart	Nasdaq: CPRT
Landec	Nasdaq: LNDC
Misonix	Nasdaq: MSON
AAR Corp.	NYSE: AIR
WEDNESDAY
Autozone	NYSE: AZO
H.B. Fuller	NYSE: FUL
Pro-Dex	Nasdaq: PDEX
SYNNEX	NYSE: SNX
Progress Software	Nasdaq: PRGS
THURSDAY
McCormick & Co.	NYSE: MKC
Cantel Medical	NYSE: CMN
Worthington Industries	NYSE: WOR
Nike	NYSE: NKE
Authentidate	Nasdaq: ADAT
AEHR Test Systems	Nasdaq: AEHR
JTH Holding	Nasdaq: TAX
FRIDAY
AZZ Inc.	NYSE: AZZ
USA Technologies	Nasdaq: USAT
Finish Line	Nasdaq: FINL
Vail Resorts	NYSE: MTN
Cubic Energy	NYSE: QBC

Recent reports you might find interesting:

LinkedIn (Nasdaq: LNKD) Valuation Threatened by Facebook (NYSE: FB) and Twitter
McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) Innovation is Key for Shareholder Return
Taperless Fed Favors American Capital (Nasdaq: AGNC)
With Annaly (NYSE: NLY) Settled, Why the Next Leg is Higher

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