Thursday – The Day After the Fed’s Big Bluff

The day after the Fed’s big bluff, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are indicating a lower open. In case you missed it, yesterday, the Federal Reserve produced a magical economic forecast that seemed to deceive those with eyes to see and a memory of the Fed’s discussion of a 1.5% economic hit to GDP growth in 2013 on fiscal measures. Voila, 1.5% became 0.2% when the forecasts found the wire. I’m doing my best to make sure there is some reconciliation regarding where the difference was made up in just one month’s time, because otherwise, I can do nothing but assume the Fed’s forecasts are relatively baseless.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due for release at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. Last week’s data covering the period ending March 9 showed claims fell by 10K to a level of 332K. The four-week moving average declined to a historically significant point last week, exciting the market a bit. On the news last week, I asked the question whether 7.1 million Americans mattered or not, because they remain unaccounted for in labor statistics.

The Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index (Flash) is due around 9:00 AM EDT Thursday. The index drifted lower at the close of February to a reading of 54.3. Economists see the measure up to 55.0 this time around.

At 9:00 AM, catch the FHFA House Price Index. This reading for January is seen showing a 0.7% increase, versus last month’s noted 0.6% gain.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index is up for its weekly release at 9:45 AM. Last week’s data showed a 0.8 point increase in confidence to -31.6. It was the highest level since last April, and the sixth straight week of improvement.

Existing Home Sales will be reported for February at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see sales rising to an annual pace of 5.01 million, up from 4.92 million in January. The housing market is critical to the market’s confidence, so each of this week’s data points will be scrutinized by us and should be noted by you.

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be reported at 10:00 AM for the month of February. The LEI is seen by economists increasing by 0.4% in February, versus the 0.2% gain in January.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank issues its survey on manufacturing conditions at 10:00 AM. The Philly Fed’s General Business Activity Index is seen improving to a still negative -1.5 mark in March, better than its -12.5 level the month before.

The EIA presents its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending March 8 showed natural gas stores decreased by 145 Bcf, to a level 440 Bcf below last year and 198 Bcf above the five-year average.

The new Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Vladimir Putin in Moscow, an interesting early travel plan that should be noted by metals investors and commodity interests.

In corporate news, an FDA advisory panel reviews a drug application for opioid dependence by Titan Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: TTNP). Reader’s Digest Association is asking for approval from a bankruptcy court for a $105 million loan for reorganization purposes. Look for analyst and investor meetings at AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), Palo Alto Networks (Nasdaq: PANW) and Susser Petroleum (Nasdaq: SUSP). Honeywell (NYSE: HON) and 3M (NYSE: MMM) present at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Industrials & EU Autos Conference. Fluor (NYSE: FLR) presents at the BB&T Commercial & Industrial Conference. PetSmart (Nasdaq: PETM) presents at the ISI Retail Summit. Unum (NYSE: UNM) presents at the J.P. Morgan Insurance Conference. The earnings schedule includes news from Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST), Nike (NYSE: NKE), China Zenix Auto (NYSE: ZX), IHS (NYSE: IHS), Micron Technology (NYSE: MU), Adecoagro (Nasdaq: AGRO), Alimera Sciences (Nasdaq: ALIM), Cato (Nasdaq: CATO), CTI Industries (Nasdaq: CTIB), Dialogic (Nasdaq: DLGC), Highpower Int’l (NYSE: HPJ), K.B. Home (NYSE: KBH), Magal Security Systems (Nasdaq: MAGS), Met-Pro (NYSE: MPR), Movado (NYSE: MOV), New York & Company (NYSE: NWY), Perry Ellis Int’l (Nasdaq: PERY), Response Genetics (Nasdaq: RGDX), rue21 (NYSE: RUE), Scholastic (Nasdaq: SCHL), SuperMedia (Nasdaq: SPMD), The Marcus Corp. (NYSE: MCS), TIBCO Software (Nasdaq: TIBX), Vertex (Nasdaq: VTNR), Vringo (Nasdaq: VRNG), Wet Seal (Nasdaq: WTSL) and Worthington Industries (NYSE: WOR).

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