Week Ahead – What’s Good is Good Again

This pre-Labor Day period offers a quiet earnings front, but plenty of economic data to keep us busy as we prepare the car for the beach. Much depends on Vladimir Putin this week, since Janet Yellen quelled all concern regarding the Fed’s interest rate plan. Economic data may continue to astound the market this week, but good news will be good news, at least until the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is reported on Friday. That could undermine all confidence in the Fed if it shows things getting pricey. Vladimir Putin deserves his own column here, as he is influencing markets more than most other macro factors of late. Recent scares in Ukraine have set capital running into treasuries and affected the price of commodities. It’ll be interesting to see what more he may do for Ukraine if the Kiev government clamps down hard on separatists, who are now better armed thanks to Vlad.

See also: Gold – The Week Ahead

5-Day Chart at Yahoo Finance

Last week’s market hinged on overwhelmingly strong economic data matched against the dovish speech of Fed Chair Yellen and the advances of Russia in Ukraine on Friday. Basically, interest rate fear stoked by the FOMC meeting minutes release and the strong economic data flow was quelled by Yellen’s focus on labor market slack in the economy and the flight to safety fueled by Putin’s Russia. The flight to safety helps, believe it or not, because it pushes interest rates lower. However, it’s only helpful for as long as Putin doesn’t threaten the U.S. economy or dollar.

Security	Last Wk	YTD	TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+1.8%	+7.9%	+19.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+2.1%	+2.7%	+13.4%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+1.7%	+12.6%	+29.2%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	-1.8%	+6.1%	-8.7%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-1.5%	-1.2%	-8.9%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)	-0.2%	+4.3%	+4.7%
PowerShares US $ Bull (NYSE: UUP)	+1.1%	+2.0%	-0.2%

The Week Ahead

The impending holiday is of no matter, as the week ahead brings a heavy load of economic data to mull through. The market will continue to note robust economic growth, but after Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole, data may not impact stocks negatively for a while. In other words, good news is good news again.

New home sales results could continue last week’s fueling of housing stocks, as Monday leads off with the important measure of both the economy and the housing market. Then, as the week progresses, real estate enthusiasts will want to check in on home price measures and pending home sales of existing homes.

On the manufacturing front, we get the important durable goods orders data; a big increase is expected, but you’ll want to look to the figure ex-transportation for a true read. The top line figure is too volatile month to month due to the high ticket prices of durable goods in the transportation space (planes, trains and automobiles). Several regional and other national reports will add color to manufacturing this week as well.

Two consumer confidence measures and one investor sentiment figure will be released this week, so it’ll be interesting to see how the consumer feels as we exit the slow summer season into back-to-school and the holiday shopping. Personal spending data on Friday will offer further insight into actual consumer activity. But this report will get extra scrutiny because it carries with it the Fed’s most favored inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index; fear not though, as not much price increase is expected by economists. We’ll need to see that, or else new found market confidence in the Fed may be immediately lost. GDP gets a revision this week as well, and it’s got a lot of room to be reduced from the initial reporting of 4.0% growth in Q2; economists are looking for the same though this time around.

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected
MONDAY
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	0.12	0.20
PMI Services Flash Index	61.0	62.0
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey	12.7	13.5
New Home Sales	406K	430K
TUESDAY
Putin Meets w/ Poroshenko
FHFA House Price Index	0.4%	0.3%
S&P Case Shiller 20-City Index	-0.3%	+0.1%
ICSC Weekly Store Sales	-1.3%
-Year-to-Year Pace	+3.8%
Redbook Store Sales	+3.7%
Consumer Confidence	90.9	89.5
Investor Confidence	114.7
Richmond Fed Index	7.0	8.0
Durable Goods Orders	0.7%	5.1%
-Ex-Transportation	0.8%	0.4%
WEDNESDAY
Mortgage Activity	+1.4%
EIA Petroleum Status
-Crude Oil Inventory	-4.5 MB
-Gasoline Inventory	+0.6 MB
THURSDAY
GDP Report	+4.0%	+4.0%
Pending Home Sales	-1.1%	+0.5%
Kansas City Fed Mgf. Index	9	9
Weekly Jobless Claims	298K	300K
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	36.6
EIA Natural Gas Report	+88 bcf
Farm Prices
FRIDAY
Personal Income	+0.4%	+0.3%
-Outlays	+0.4%	+0.2%
-Core PCE Price Index	+0.1%	+0.1%
Chicago PMI	52.6	56.4
Consumer Sentiment	79.2	80.5

In this week heading into the Labor Day holiday weekend, we should not expect much from corporate earnings, especially as we approach Friday. Still, important news will come from Renren, The Gap and Best Buy.

EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
MONDAY
Adept Technology	Nasdaq: ADEP
Aeroflex Holding	NYSE: ARX
Avid Technology	Nasdaq: AVID
CNinsure	Nasdaq: CISG
Collectors Universe	Nasdaq: CLCT
Corinthian Colleges	Nasdaq: COCO
dELiA*s	Nasdaq: DLIA
Dendreon	Nasdaq: DNDN
DHT Holding	NYSE: DHT
Fabrinet	NYSE: FN
Global Geophysical Services	Nasdaq: GEGSQ
Golar LNG	Nasdaq: GMLP
Iao Kun Group	Nasdaq: IKGH
ITT Educational Services	NYSE: ESI
OSI Systems	Nasdaq: OSIS
Premier	Nasdaq: PINC
Prospect Capital	Nasdaq: PSEC
Qihoo 360 Technology	Nasdaq: QIHU
Renren	Nasdaq: RENN
Xueda Education	NYSE: XUE
TUESDAY
Analog Devices	NYSE: ADI
Aruba Networks	Nasdaq: ARUN
Best Buy	NYSE: BBY
Bob Evans Farms	Nasdaq: BOBE
Culp	NYSE: CFI
Daktronics	Nasdaq: DAKT
Doral Financial	NYSE: DRL
DSW Inc.	NYSE: DSW
Dycom Industries	NYSE: DY
Golar LNG	Nasdaq: GLNG
Heico	NYSE: HEI
Movado Group	NYSE: MOV
Nimble Storage	Nasdaq: NMBL
Regis	NYSE: RGS
Sanderson Farms	Nasdaq: SAFM
Smith & Wesson	Nasdaq: SWHC
Solera	NYSE: SLH
Taomee	Nasdaq: TAOM
Tech Data	Nasdaq: TECD
TiVo	Nasdaq: TIVO
Trina Solar	NYSE: TSL
TubeMogul	Nasdaq: TUBE
WEDNESDAY
21Vianet	Nasdaq: VNET
Bally Technologies	NYSE: BYI
Bio-Reference Laboratories	Nasdaq: BRLI
Brown Shoe Co.	NYSE: BWS
CareDx	Nasdaq: CDNA
Casella Waste Systems	Nasdaq: CWST
Chico’s FAS	NYSE: CHS
Concurrent Computer	Nasdaq: CCUR
Donaldson Co.	NYSE: DCI
Eltek	Nasdaq: ELTK
Exa Corp.	NYSE: EXA
Express	Nasdaq: EXPR
Globe Specialty Metals	NYSE: GSM
Gordmans Stores	Nasdaq: GMAN
Greif	NYSE: GEF
GUESS?	NYSE: GES
Isle of Capri Casinos	Nasdaq: ISLE
KongZhong	NYSE: KZ
Lannett Co.	NYSE: LCI
North Atlantic Drilling	Nasdaq: NADL
Seadrill Partners	Nasdaq: SDLP
Standex Int’l	NYSE: SXI
Tiffany & Co.	NYSE: TIF
Tilly’s	Nasdaq: TLYS
Violin Memory	Nasdaq: VMEM
Williams-Sonoma	NYSE: WSM
Workday	Nasdaq: WDAY
THURSDAY
Abercrombie & Fitch	NYSE: ANF
Amira Nature Foods	Nasdaq: ANFI
Avago Technologies	Nasdaq: AVGO
Bona Film Group	Nasdaq: BONA
China Cord Blood	NYSE: CO
Constellium	Nasdaq: CSTM
Coty	Nasdaq: COTY
Destination XL Group	Nasdaq: DXLG
Dollar General	NYSE: DG
Edap Tms SA	Nasdaq: EDAP
Fred’s	Nasdaq: FRED
Genesco	NYSE: GCO
Jiayuan.com Int’l	Nasdaq: DATE
Liberty Tax	NYSE: TAX
Net 1 UEPS Technologies	Nasdaq: UEPS
OmniVision Technologies	Nasdaq: OVTI
Pacific Sunwear of California	Nasdaq: PSUN
Pall Corp.	NYSE: PLL
Paul Mueller	Nasdaq: MUEL
Rally Software Development	Nasdaq: RALY
Sears Hometown & Outlet	Nasdaq: SHOS
Ship Finance Int’l	NYSE: SFL
Signet Jewelers	NYSE: SIG
Splunk	Nasdaq: SPLK
StealthGas	Nasdaq: GASS
Veeva Systems	Nasdaq: VEEV
FRIDAY
Big Lots	NYSE: BIG

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.