The Greek’s Week Ahead – Of Russia, Retailers & Fishing Reels

Predicting Russia takes East of Dnipro River

It’s an enigma, this week’s stock market warm-up! How can Russia, retailers and fishing reels all matter to investors this week? The Russia part at least should be simple for you to figure out, given Friday’s showdown between Ukrainian forces and a Russian military convoy that only partially exists today. Retailers matter because a bunch of them are reporting earnings this week, and when the onslaught is over we’ll have a much better view of how the consumer is handling his wallet. Finally, ‘fishing reels’ alludes to that iconic economic event that occurs around this time every year. It’s the Jackson Hole Symposium, which draws the Federal Reserve Chairperson and the attention of every econo-watcher and investor. All of these events will weigh on stocks this week, so keep reading and be ready.

Also see our report: Why Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is a Flight to Safety Destination Today.

5-Day Chart S&P 500 at Yahoo

Stocks, while shaky, wanted to rise into the close of the week on Friday. Economic data was mostly supportive of U.S. shares, despite Tuesday’s dive on a soft German economic indicator. Friday’s shocker, as evidenced by the volatility seen in the chart that day, came on geopolitical catalyst. It’s a driver that should still weigh on the market this week as well, but it might not.

Russia Rustling
A Russian aid convoy of some 280 trucks was headed to the Russian separatist held region of Donetsk, Ukraine, and was in the process of inspection by Ukrainian officials. And then, some reporters tweeted about witnessing a Russian military column breaching the border with Ukraine. About 12 hours later, Ukraine reported that it destroyed a good portion of what was probably that same military convoy.

Russia’s response, though, was curious. Russia denied any presence of its military within Ukrainian territory, and said the story was a fabrication of Kiev. The fact that Russia did not respond militarily speaking right away will probably give greedy traders confidence Monday morning, but this is KGB man Putin we’re talking about. Do you honestly think he’ll invade Ukraine when the world expects it?

I expect Russia is going to take all of Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnipro River, which runs right along Kiev (unless it uses the Psel River as a Northwestern delineator), and that the timing of this event did not coincide with its own plans. When the true invasion happens, and it will, stocks will be shocked, because too many investors are tuning out the geopolitical for as long as they can. It’s an unfortunate reality, the result of capital inflows from pension funds and also human nature and greed. We ignore new risks until they become clear and present dangers to our lives, or in this case, livelihood.

Security	YTD	TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+6.0%	+18.0%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.5%	+10.5%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+10.7%	+29.0%
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Ft (NYSE: VXX)	-32.1%	-51.8%
PIMCO Total Return (NYSE: BOND)	+4.5%	+4.7%
PowerShares DB US $ Bull (NYSE: UUP)	+0.8%	-1.3%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	+8.1%	-5.4%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	+0.3%	-8.7%

Week Ahead

Your Economic Data Prep
The week ahead is light as far as economic data goes. We’ve got a taste of housing data coming, some pricing information to spice the meal, and a main course of leading economic indicators with manufacturing tidbits on the side. For dessert, Janet Yellen and all the queen’s men will join us in Jackson Hole for the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium. Actually, I would love to attend someday, but this will not be the year.

The week’s housing data is distinctly focused on the new home market. We will hear from the homebuilders, when the sentiment measure covering them is published Monday. Then on Tuesday, we’ll get news on housing starts. From there forward, we’ll shift to the existing real estate market, with mortgage applications on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday.

Last week’s reported price measures stirred up no inflation/Fed action fear, thank the Lord. This week, though, we receive a more important measure. On Tuesday, keep your eyes focused on the Consumer Price Index, this time measuring the month of July. The signs are good, so you can rest easy and enjoy the beach a little longer. Economists see the headline inflation figure rising just 0.1% in July, which is less than the 0.3% pace set in June. Because this figure includes energy prices, which dipped in July, it’s not a reliable measure for a clear view of inflation. Rather, look to the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, for a better view. Economists expect the Core CPI to rise by 0.2%, which is actually up from June’s pace of 0.1%. However, it’s still digestible, and so stocks should hold ground if the news matches the expectations.

Otherwise, the economic data has a headliner in the Leading Economic Indicators, to be reported this time for the month of July. Economists are looking for a nice pickup for the LEI in July of 0.6%. After June’s 0.3% gain, such a result would have economists happy. However, investors may not be so happy if the economy heats up too quickly, due to concerns again for faster Fed action on interest rates.

We’ll get a good idea on just that topic when Janet Yellen gives the keynote address at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday. In my opinion, the outlook is bright for Friday, so bring your fishing gear along and get ready to scoot out early after Yellen’s address. She’ll probably repeat the Fed position that asset purchases will end in October and rates will start rising sometime in 2014. I expect her to also note the difficulties in Europe due to the Russia/Ukraine issue, and how that might delay the Fed’s hawkishness. That’s the best news the market will have had in quite a while, and so stocks should take off on Friday. That’s qualified, though, for as long as Russian rockets and fighter jets do not take off.

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected
MONDAY
Housing Market Index	53	53
TUESDAY
ICSC Weekly Store Sales	-1.4%
-Year-to-Year Pace	+3.2%
Redbook Store Sales	+4.8%
Housing Starts	0.893 M	0.963 M
-Permits	0.963 M
Consumer Price Index	0.3%	0.1%
-Core CPI	0.1%	0.2%
WEDNESDAY
Mortgage Activity	-2.7%
EIA Petroleum Status
-Crude Oil Inventory	+1.4 MB
-Gasoline Inventory	-1.2 MB
FOMC Meeting Minutes
THURSDAY
Leading Economic Indicators	+0.3%	+0.6%
PMI Manufacturing Index (Flash)
Weekly Jobless Claims	311K	300K
EIA Natural Gas Report	+78 bcf
Existing Home Sales	5.04 M	5.00 M
Philly Fed Index	23.9	20.0
NABE Studies Crisis in Ukraine Impact
FRIDAY
Jackson Hole Symposium – Yellen Keynote

The light week of earnings is still heavy on the EPS of retailers. Retailers report later than the rest on Wall Street’s board because of their delayed fiscal year, which runs a month off due to the effect of the holiday shopping season on their earnings flow. They’re reporting their July ended quarter now, where most other companies have just reported their June ended quarters.

EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
MONDAY
Urban Outfitters	Nasdaq: URBN
MICROS Systems	Nasdaq: MCRS
Aeroflex	NYSE: ARX
Airmedia	Nasdaq: AMCN
Arsenal Holdings	NYSE: AFC
Avid Technology	Nasdaq: AVID
China Ceramics	Nasdaq: CCCL
Dendreon	Nasdaq: DNDN
DHT Holdings	NYSE: DHT
Equity Commonwealth	NYSE: EQC
Fabrinet	NYSE: FN
Fuel Systems Solutions	Nasdaq: FSYS
Globe Specialty Metals	NYSE: GSM
HC2 Holdings	Nasdaq: HCHC
Iao Kun Group	Nasdaq: IKGH
JinkoSolar	NYSE: JKS
MRV Communications	Nasdaq: MRVC
Net 1 UEPS Technologies	Nasdaq: UEPS
Orthofix	Nasdaq: OFIX
Prospect Capital	Nasdaq: PSEC
RadioShack	NYSE: RSH
TUESDAY
TJX Co.	NYSE: TJX
Home Depot	NYSE: HD
Dick’s Sporting Goods	NYSE: DKS
American Woodmark	Nasdaq: AMWD
Cheetah Mobile	Nasdaq: CMCM
Elizabeth Arden	Nasdaq: RDEN
John B Sanfilippo & Son	Nasdaq: JBSS
La-Z-Boy	NYSE: LZB
Medtronic	NYSE: MDT
Navios Maritime Acquisition	NYSE: NNA
Photronics	Nasdaq: PLAB
Urologix	Nasdaq: ULGX
Youku Tudou	Nasdaq: YOKU
WEDNESDAY
America’s Car-Mart	Nasdaq: CRMT
American Eagle Outfitters	NYSE: AEO
Astro-Med	Nasdaq: ALOT
CACI Int’l	Nasdaq: CACI
Citi Trends	Nasdaq: CTRN
Eaton Vance	NYSE: EV
Eaton Vance Senior Income Trust	NYSE: EVF
GasLog	Nasdaq: GLOG
Hain Celestial	Nasdaq: HAIN
Hewlett-Packard	NYSE: HPQ
International Rectifier	NYSE: IRF
J.M. Smucker	NYSE: SJM
L Brands	NYSE: LB
Lowe’s Cos.	NYSE: LOW
Madison Square Garden	NYSE: MSG
PetSmart	Nasdaq: PETM
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Nasdaq: PLKI
Raven Industries	Nasdaq: RAVN
Semtech	Nasdaq: SMTC
Staples	Nasdaq: SPLS
Synopsys	Nasdaq: SNPS
Target	NYSE: TGT
ValueVision Media	Nasdaq: VVTV
THURSDAY
58.com	Nasdaq: WUBA
Accuray	Nasdaq: ARAY
Aeropostale	NYSE: ARO
Aviat Networks	Nasdaq: AVNW
Bon-Ton Stores	Nasdaq: BONT
Brocade Communications	Nasdaq: BRCD
Buckle	NYSE: BKE
Cato Corp.	Nasdaq: CATO
Children’s Place	Nasdaq: PLCE
Cyberonics	Nasdaq: CYBX
Dollar Tree	Nasdaq: DLTR
Doral Financial	NYSE: DRL
Eros International	Nasdaq: EROS
Fresh Market	NYSE: TFM
GameStop	NYSE: GME
Gap	NYSE: GPS
Hormel Foods	NYSE: HRL
Intuit	Nasdaq: INTU
Kirkland’s	Nasdaq: KIRK
Lancaster Colony	Nasdaq: LANC
Lantronix	Nasdaq: LTRX
LSI Industries	Nasdaq: LYTS
Marvell Technology	Nasdaq: MRVL
Mentor Graphics	Nasdaq: MENT
Navios Maritime	NYSE: NM
New York & Co.	NYSE: NWY
Nordson	Nasdaq: NDSN
Patterson Cos.	Nasdaq: PDCO
Perry Ellis	Nasdaq: PERY
Ross Stores	Nasdaq: ROSS
Salesforce.com	NYSE: CRM
ScanSource	Nasdaq: SCSC
Sears	Nasdaq: SHLD
Stage Stores	NYSE: SSI
Stein Mart	Nasdaq: SMRT
Toro	NYSE: TTC
Trans World Entertainment	Nasdaq: TWMC
Tuesday Morning	Nasdaq: TUES
FRIDAY
ANN Inc.	NYSE: ANN
Foot Locker	NYSE: FL
Hibbett Sports	Nasdaq: HIBB

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.