Wall Street Greek: Stocks Today Reminiscent of a Recurring Bad Dream

Authored at Start of July

Shortly after the 4th of July holiday in 2007, the 5-year bull market that began in 2002 started to show real signs of weakness. In the face of vehement denials from the likes of Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and even Jim Cramer, a few market analysts started to raise concerns over sub-prime loans and housing in general. Bond prices began falling rapidly in overnight trading, putting much pressure on what were historically low yield spreads. On a personal note, I remember Ken Fisher, et al mocking me when I suggested that the rash of mergers and acquisitions were about to come to an end as bond yields started rising and stocks started to crash.

Of course, the market weakened for a few months only to rise to an eventual all-time high in October 2007 before again heading cataclysmically downward to 2009 lows. Hard to believe that we’ve rebounded to even higher prices these past 5 years despite a faux economy propped up by mountains of debt. And yet bond prices of all maturities and grades remain near historic lows as the Fed continues to print money to prop up everything from bonds to stocks to commodities to real estate.

For some time, market commentators have suggested that the DOW (NYSE: DIA) would hit 17,000 before the market would reach an eventual top. Likewise, the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is remarkably poised just under 2000, which could also present a round milestone for the very near future. But with the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E ratio at 26, current valuations are higher than at almost any point in history, most notably except 1929, 2000 and 2007. So it would seem the end to the bull-market may be fast approaching.

The question is: how long can this apparent Ponzi scheme possibly last?

Seems there is no end in sight, as the perpetually-fresh new money must go somewhere. And since it generally chases the highest returns, stocks could continue to rise. Maybe this time will somehow be different. More likely, it will not.

What will be the final grain of sand that topples the unstable mountain built upon nothing? What will provide the catalyst? Is there a geo-political crisis looming; a natural or manmade disaster? Is there any catastrophe that cannot be covered up by piles of money from Central Bankers across the world?

The recent, downward revision in Q1 GDP portends trouble. Look for misses and poor forward guidance as earnings reports begin to unfold. Energy stocks, which constitute a large sector of the S&P, may well lead the way down. July of 2014 looks as if it could provide a replay of 2007 with the market turning bearish by year end. Let us just hope it doesn’t begin with significant trouble in the bond market!

Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

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