WEDNESDAY'S MARKET: Premature Celebration & Why Smart Money Will Sell It
It seems investors are prematurely celebrating today, and it calls for the selling of stocks ahead of what I expect will be another bad jobs data point. Meanwhile, Russian troops persist on Ukrainian territory and tensions are rising between proud armed forces and peoples. Russia is pushing the issue, and I expect will find push back from the Ukraine. A surprise or two is surely in store for investors, because Vladimir Putin does not follow western rules. This will serve as a wake-up call to the so-called civilized world, that you can’t have global civilization when you live with wild animals.
U.S. Markets
Stocks are up Thursday as we head into the critical Employment Report set for Friday morning release. I think it’s a mistake, and would take bets off here. If markets rise on the report tomorrow, I would likewise take off risk after that news. The Ukrainian crisis is not going away, and a pending and dirty election in Crimea that will demand secession from the Ukraine will bring with it more trouble. The prideful Russians will accept nothing less than domination here, and I’m not sure they’ll get it without the shedding of blood, considering Ukrainian righteousness and western pride. That said, the employment report could be negatively impacted by the sample period, which fell on a cold snowy period. So, forget about holding stock into the weekend; why hold stock heading into Friday even?
International Markets
Global shares seem to be following the same macro-drivers across Asia and Europe this week. If you track the five-day charts of the VGK and the AAXJ you see it. The Ukrainian crisis is clearly playing a critical role in global share trading, with Monday producing a global selloff and Tuesday bringing recovery as events transpired in Eastern Europe. Yesterday we received information about economic growth in China that met with approval and today the ECB held rates steady while German factory orders offered a positive tone. I expect those who bought into today will regret it come Monday morning.
Economic Data
Economic data offered a mixed tone today, but stocks are likely higher thanks to employment data. Challenger’s Job-Cuts Report showed a lower level of announced corporate layoffs than the prior month. Weekly Jobless Claims fell significantly to a lower level, and was also under economists’ expectations. The fact that this data comes just ahead of the critical monthly Employment Situation Report gives it more weight, though I do not expect it to carry through and true to tomorrow’s data.
On the short side of the table, nonfarm productivity rose at a slower pace than last month and also missed economists’ expectations. Factory Orders slipped again in the latest period, keeping with the prior month’s trend of the same. Ending with an important positive note, Consumer Comfort improved slightly this week, after last week’s sharp gain.
Commodity Markets (10:35 ET)
Natural gas gained sharply on the latest inventory data, which showed a revival of the big draw. It has been cold again, so this should have been predictable, especially for regulars in this space. Otherwise, energy is not sure what to do on the bizarre day-to-day twists around the Crimean situation. Gold and silver are higher today, though, which is a position I continue to support this year.
Stock Activity
We have important reports from Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Joy Global (NYSE: JOY) and Kroger (NYSE: KR) today mixed in with an interesting list.
Other Reports of Interest:
How a War-Driven Flight to Quality Could Lift Annaly Shares (NYSE: NLY)
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
U.S. Markets
Market ETF
|
March 6
|
YTD
|
Last 12
|
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
|
+0.4%
|
+2.0%
|
+22.0%
|
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
|
+0.5%
|
-0.8%
|
+14.9%
|
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)
|
+0.2%
|
+3.7%
|
+33.1%
|
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
|
+0.6%
|
+11.7%
|
-15.4%
|
iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)
|
-0.5%
|
+9.1%
|
-0.3%
|
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)
|
+0.3%
|
+2.7%
|
+11.5%
|
PowerShares DB US$ Bullish
(NYSE: UUP)
|
-0.5%
|
-0.7%
|
-5.0%
|
PIMCO Total Return ETF (NYSE: BOND)
|
-0.1%
|
+1.6%
|
-2.8%
|
Stocks are up Thursday as we head into the critical Employment Report set for Friday morning release. I think it’s a mistake, and would take bets off here. If markets rise on the report tomorrow, I would likewise take off risk after that news. The Ukrainian crisis is not going away, and a pending and dirty election in Crimea that will demand secession from the Ukraine will bring with it more trouble. The prideful Russians will accept nothing less than domination here, and I’m not sure they’ll get it without the shedding of blood, considering Ukrainian righteousness and western pride. That said, the employment report could be negatively impacted by the sample period, which fell on a cold snowy period. So, forget about holding stock into the weekend; why hold stock heading into Friday even?
International Markets
EUROPE
|
INTRA
|
ASIA/PACIFIC
|
CLOSE
|
Vanguard Europe (NYSE: VGK)
|
+1.0%
|
iShares Japan (NYSE: EWJ)
|
+1.7%
|
iShares U.K. (NYSE: EWU)
|
+0.2%
|
SPDR China (NYSE: GXC)
|
+0.8%
|
iShares France (NYSE: EWQ)
|
+1.5%
|
Asia Ex-Japan (NYSE: AAXJ)
|
+0.9%
|
iShares Germany (NYSE: EWG)
|
+0.9%
|
iShares S. Korea (NYSE: EWY)
|
+0.9%
|
Global X Greece (NYSE: GREK)
|
+1.0%
|
WisdomTree India (NYSE: EPI)
|
+2.0%
|
Global shares seem to be following the same macro-drivers across Asia and Europe this week. If you track the five-day charts of the VGK and the AAXJ you see it. The Ukrainian crisis is clearly playing a critical role in global share trading, with Monday producing a global selloff and Tuesday bringing recovery as events transpired in Eastern Europe. Yesterday we received information about economic growth in China that met with approval and today the ECB held rates steady while German factory orders offered a positive tone. I expect those who bought into today will regret it come Monday morning.
Economic Data
TODAY’S ECONOMIC REPORT
SCHEDULE
|
|||
Economic Data Point
|
Prior
|
Expected
|
Actual
|
THURSDAY
|
|
|
|
45,107
|
|
41,835
|
|
349K
|
338K
|
323K
|
|
Gallup US Payroll to Pop.
|
42.0
|
|
43.1
|
+3.5%
|
+2.4%
|
+1.8%
|
|
-Unit Labor Costs
|
-2.1%
|
-0.5%
|
-0.1%
|
Chain Store Sales
|
|
|
|
-28.6
|
|
-28.5
|
|
-2.0%
|
-0.5%
|
-0.7%
|
|
-95 Bcf
|
|
-152 Bcf
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economic data offered a mixed tone today, but stocks are likely higher thanks to employment data. Challenger’s Job-Cuts Report showed a lower level of announced corporate layoffs than the prior month. Weekly Jobless Claims fell significantly to a lower level, and was also under economists’ expectations. The fact that this data comes just ahead of the critical monthly Employment Situation Report gives it more weight, though I do not expect it to carry through and true to tomorrow’s data.
On the short side of the table, nonfarm productivity rose at a slower pace than last month and also missed economists’ expectations. Factory Orders slipped again in the latest period, keeping with the prior month’s trend of the same. Ending with an important positive note, Consumer Comfort improved slightly this week, after last week’s sharp gain.
Commodity Markets (10:35 ET)
WTI Crude
|
-0.0%
|
Brent Crude
|
+0.1%
|
NYMEX Natural Gas
|
+2.6%
|
RBOB Gasoline
|
-1.5%
|
Gold Spot
|
+0.6%
|
COMEX Silver
|
+0.5%
|
COMEX Copper
|
+0.3%
|
CBOT Corn
|
+1.2%
|
CBOT Wheat
|
+0.2%
|
CBOT Soybeans
|
+1.0%
|
ICE Cocoa
|
-0.4%
|
ICE Sugar
|
+1.1%
|
ICE Orange Juice Conc.
|
+0.5%
|
CME Lumber
|
+0.1%
|
CME Live Cattle
|
-0.4%
|
Natural gas gained sharply on the latest inventory data, which showed a revival of the big draw. It has been cold again, so this should have been predictable, especially for regulars in this space. Otherwise, energy is not sure what to do on the bizarre day-to-day twists around the Crimean situation. Gold and silver are higher today, though, which is a position I continue to support this year.
Stock Activity
We have important reports from Costco (Nasdaq: COST), Joy Global (NYSE: JOY) and Kroger (NYSE: KR) today mixed in with an interesting list.
EPS REPORTS
|
|
Company
|
Ticker
|
THURSDAY
|
|
21Vianet
|
Nasdaq:
VNET
|
Alamo
Group
|
NYSE: ALG
|
Alaska
Communications
|
Nasdaq:
ALSK
|
Alexza
Pharmaceuticals
|
Nasdaq:
ALXA
|
Alon USA
Energy
|
NYSE: ALJ
|
Ambarella
|
Nasdaq:
AMBA
|
Analogic
|
Nasdaq:
ALOG
|
Arabian
American Development
|
Nasdaq:
ARSD
|
Baxano
Surgical
|
Nasdaq:
BAXS
|
Benefitfocus
|
Nasdaq:
BNFT
|
Biospecifics
Technologies
|
Nasdaq:
BSTC
|
Blackrock
Kelso Capital
|
Nasdaq:
BKCC
|
BPZ
Resources
|
NYSE: BPZ
|
CECO
Environmental
|
Nasdaq:
CECE
|
Checkpoint
Systems
|
NYSE: CKP
|
Chembio
Diagnostics
|
Nasdaq:
CEMI
|
Chesapeake
Utilities
|
NYSE: CPK
|
Children’s
Place Retail Stores
|
Nasdaq:
PLCE
|
Ciena
|
Nasdaq:
CIEN
|
Comtech
Telecommunications
|
Nasdaq:
CMTL
|
Cooper
Cos.
|
NYSE: COO
|
Costco
|
Nasdaq:
COST
|
CPI Aerostructures
|
NYSE: CVU
|
Craft Brew
Alliance
|
Nasdaq:
BREW
|
CST Brands
|
NYSE: CST
|
CTC Media
|
Nasdaq:
CTCM
|
Descartes
Systems Group
|
Nasdaq:
DSGX
|
Dot Hill
Systems
|
Nasdaq:
HILL
|
Emergent
BioSolutions
|
NYSE: EBS
|
Finisar
|
Nasdaq:
FNSR
|
Five Star
Quality Care
|
NYSE: FVE
|
FLY
Leasing
|
NYSE: FLY
|
Fresh
Market
|
NYSE: TFM
|
FXCM
|
Nasdaq:
FXCM
|
Glowpoint
|
Nasdaq:
GLOW
|
H&R
Block
|
NYSE: HRB
|
IDT
|
NYSE: IDT
|
Information
Services Group
|
NYSE: III
|
Jamba
|
Nasdaq:
JMBA
|
Joy Global
|
NYSE: JOY
|
Korn/Ferry
|
NYSE: KFY
|
Kroger
|
NYSE: KR
|
Lehigh Gas
Partners
|
NYSE: LGP
|
LRR Energy
|
NYSE: LRE
|
Microvision
|
Nasdaq:
MVIS
|
Nature’s
Sunshine Products
|
Nasdaq:
NATR
|
Navidea
Biopharmaceuticals
|
Nasdaq:
NAVB
|
Neonode
|
Nasdaq:
NEON
|
NGP
Capital Resources
|
Nasdaq:
NGPC
|
Novatel
Wireless
|
Nasdaq:
NVTL
|
Perficient
|
Nasdaq:
PRFT
|
Pinnacle
Foods
|
NYSE: PF
|
Qihoo 360
Technology
|
Nasdaq:
QIHU
|
Quanex
Building Products
|
NYSE: NX
|
Quiksilver
|
NYSE: ZQK
|
Repligen
|
Nasdaq:
RGEN
|
Safeguard
Scientifics
|
NYSE: SFE
|
Sanchez
Energy
|
NYSE: SN
|
Skullcandy
|
Nasdaq:
SKUL
|
Spectrum
Pharmaceuticals
|
Nasdaq:
SPPI
|
Stage
Stores
|
NYSE: SSI
|
Staples
|
Nasdaq:
SPLS
|
Stoneridge
|
NYSE: SRI
|
Sunesis
Pharmaceuticals
|
Nasdaq:
SNSS
|
Synergetics
USA
|
Nasdaq:
SURG
|
Thor
Industries
|
NYSE: THO
|
Trans
World Entertainment
|
Nasdaq:
TWMC
|
U.S.
Physical Therapy
|
Nasdaq:
USPH
|
U.S. Auto
Parts Network
|
Nasdaq:
PRTS
|
U.S.
Concrete
|
Nasdaq:
USCR
|
Verastem
|
Nasdaq:
VSTM
|
Vermillion
|
Nasdaq:
VRML
|
VimpelCom
|
NYSE: VIP
|
Violin
Memory
|
Nasdaq:
VMEM
|
W&T
Offshore
|
NYSE: WTI
|
Warren
Resources
|
Nasdaq:
WRES
|
Winthrop
Realty Trust
|
NYSE: FUR
|
Zalicus
|
Nasdaq:
ZLCS
|
TODAY’S MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
|
|
BIGGEST GAINERS
|
% Gain
|
Digital Power (NYSE: DPW)
|
+74%
|
Pixelworks (Nasdaq: PXLW)
|
+43%
|
Energy Recovery (Nasdaq: ERII)
|
+38%
|
Infosonics (Nasdaq: IFON)
|
+26%
|
Agios Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: AGIO)
|
+22%
|
Karyopharm Therpeutics (Nasdaq: KPTI)
|
+22%
|
China New Borun (Nasdaq: BORN)
|
+24%
|
China Precision Steel (Nasdaq: CPSL)
|
+24%
|
Sangamo Biosciences (Nasdaq: SGMO)
|
+20%
|
Ikonics (Nasdaq: IKNX)
|
+19%
|
BIGGEST LOSERS
|
% Drop
|
TrovaGene (Nasdaq: TROVU)
|
-41%
|
XG Technology (Nasdaq: XGTIW)
|
-37%
|
NV5 Holdings (Nasdaq: NVEEW)
|
-22%
|
Northwest Biotherapeutics (Nasdaq: NWBOW)
|
-22%
|
Spark Networks (NYSE: LOV)
|
-22%
|
xG Technology (Nasdaq: XGTI)
|
-21%
|
EveryWare Global (Nasdaq: EVRY)
|
-20%
|
Dot Hill Systems (Nasdaq: HILL)
|
-16%
|
Staples (Nasdaq: SPLS)
|
-15%
|
Cross Country Health (Nasdaq: CCRN)
|
-15%
|
Other Reports of Interest:
How a War-Driven Flight to Quality Could Lift Annaly Shares (NYSE: NLY)
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Labels: Market-Outlook, Market-Outlook-2014-Q1
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home