Dry Bulk Shipping Recovery?

MIRAL SHIPPING DRY BULK FREIGHT REPORT

October 10, 2011

After a difficult summer, is dry bulk shipping on the road to recovery?

Mr. Alexander J. Miral, founder of Miral Shipping Company, is an independent shipbroker and consultant to commodity traders. Mr. Miral has been contributing to our expert blog, Wall Street Greek, as a Senior Analyst and Shipping Columnist since 2009.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: TK, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NNA, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: OSG, NYSE: ISH, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: SB, NYSE: SEA, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: SFL, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, NYSE: BC, NYSE: MPX, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: EGLE, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: VLCCF, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: GLNG, Nasdaq: XSEAX, Nasdaq: ACLI, NYSE: FDX, NYSE: UPS, Nasdaq: CHRW, Nasdaq: EXPD, Nasdaq: UTIW, Nasdaq: HUBG, NYSE: UNP, NYSE: CNI, NYSE: NSC, NYSE: CSX, NYSE: CP, NYSE: KSU, Nasdaq: JBHT, Nasdaq: LSTR, NYSE: CNW, NYSE: KNX, Nasdaq: WERN, Nasdaq: USAK, NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE and NYSE: CCH.

Dry Bulk Shipping Recovery?

2011 has been a difficult year for many in the shipping industry. The dry bulk market has fared better than most sectors of shipping but much of the year has seen low rates, capesize tonnage being hit particularly hard. However, to the surprise of most of us, the dry bulk market has experienced a substantial recovery beginning in the second half of August and rates continue to climb.

As of October 10, 2011 the BDI is at 2032, having crossed the key psychological barrier of 2000 this past Friday. Gains have occurred in all vessel classes, but capsizes have led the way increasing to $28,483 timecharter average per day, a three fold increase from where rates were early this summer. Panamaxes and supramaxes were at $15,561 and $16,150 timecharter average, respectively, representing approximately a $4,000 per day increase since early this summer. Handys have lagged but have still recovered to close to $11,000 tc average daily. It is surprising that these gains have come in the face of the debt crisis in Europe, and a slow economy in the United States.

The key to the freight recovery has been in the iron ore and coal trades, usually the two biggest drivers of dry bulk freight. Thermal coal demand has increased in advance of the northern hemisphere winter. Japan has increased its thermal coal imports as more coal plants have begun operating after the country’s loss in the tsunami disaster. China also imported a record amount of coal in August, some 10.1 million metric tons, representing an over 40% year-on-year increase. Part of this increase has been due to severe flooding in China, curtailing domestic production and necessitating replacement by imports. The global iron ore trade has also remained strong, with Chinese imports having increased over 10% since last year.

As I reported in previous columns, the export restrictions in India have meant increased shipments from more distant sources, meaning increased ton miles and an environment supportive of higher freight rates. Furthermore, the seasonal increase in grain shipments from the USA is underway, also contributing to a stronger Atlantic market. These trades have benefited all vessel classes, including handys since Indonesian coal volume that uses such vessels is way up.

Does this recovery have legs?

There are many reasons to think not. The global economy is at great risk, and if there is a global slowdown, freight will surely be impacted negatively. China has been the main steady driver of dry bulk freight, but even China is expected to slow down some, and eventually the iron ore trade could be impacted. The increase in thermal coal is seasonal to an extent and China’s great increase in coal imports should not last more than six months before falling back to more normal levels. The dry bulk order book is still high through the end of 2012, which is highly negative for freight rates. In fact, it has been reported that ship ordering activity is now quite low, indicating that owners are not confident of the freight rates holding up. One of the few sustained positives I could find is in the reconstruction in Japan, and later possibly Libya. However, taking into account the overall picture, I would not count on dry bulk freight to remain high past the short term.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Turbulent Seas Have Arrived

MIRAL SHIPPING DRY BULK FREIGHT REPORT

In his latest Dry Bulk Shipping Market Report, Wall Street Greek Shipping Columnist Alex Miral discusses the current state of the Dry Bulk Market, and navigates its turbulent seas for us.

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Turbulent Seas Have Arrived

Since my last article for WSG, there has been much important news that has implications for the dry bulk shipping market. Global events such as the tragic Japanese earthquake back in March remind us all how fragile life is and how profoundly the lives of so many can be changed in an instant. The uprisings in the Middle-East that began in Egypt during January signaled momentous change for many of its people and also may have wider implications for the global economy including the shipping markets. We witnessed the bankruptcy of one of the largest dry bulk owner-operators, Korea Line and the widespread anticipation that more could very well follow. Currently, we are witnessing the great flood of the Mississippi River that may alter, albeit temporarily, the flow of US grain and other cargoes from the US Gulf. However, in these turbulent times, the Carlisle group’s $5 – 10 billion private equity investment with Chinese partners to build 50-100 ships for Chinese ship-operators shows that at least a few large players are confident in dry bulk and China. As my father often says, there is never a dull moment in shipping.

In recent weeks, the dry bulk freight market has been mixed, but in my opinion, with an overall bearish tone. It has varied with ship size category, dropping to extremely depressed levels for capsizes; higher volatility for panamaxes at low but more bearable levels for owners; or mainly drifting sideways at historically decent freight levels for the handysize to supramax vessel sizes. It has been a period with an inverted curve, where the largest ships have been earning the least freight, a highly unusual occurrence. There has been a strong volume of cargoes during this downturn, which points to the main driver coming from the supply side.

There continues to be a steady flow of bulk carrier deliveries that are depressing freights. In the first quarter of this year, the bulk carrier fleet has reportedly expanded by 74 million deadweight; 4.5 per cent of that from capesize ships. The aggregate supply additions are tempered by demolitions and slippage (an industry term for cancelations), but even so, the numbers are huge. Up to 1300 bulk carriers are projected to be delivered less cancellations, resulting in the global bulk carrier fleet growth outstripping the global trade growth by as much as 5 percent. The growth will not be equal in all ship sizes; the larger ship supply is set to grow more than the relatively smaller sizes. For example, the handymax supply is projected to grow little. These supply dynamics are not set to improve until at after 2012 at the earliest.

As of today, the spot market for capesize has dropped below US $6,000 per day and has hovered in the $6000 - $7000 per day range for over one month, a freight that does not cover OPEX for these vessels. Many capesizes are on long-term charter or contracts at higher rates, but capesize freight numbers are still extremely low and troubling. The smaller vessel classes have fared considerably better.

The Panamax ships had recovered to near $14,000 per day last Friday after dropping to near $11,000 per day. However, as of May 16, rates are starting to decline again. The seasonal South American grain deliveries have helped give these ships a little boost, providing a decent number of cargoes from Argentina and Brazil to Asia and Europe.

The Handymax and Supramax ships have also averaged close to $14,000 per day and this rate has been more or less steady for several months. These ships have benefited from some of the increased grain business and also from a steady supply of 40,000 mt plus mineral cargoes (coal and iron ore) in the Far East. The coal trade to India and China from Indonesia plus transatlantic and outbound scrap has been standout trades that have benefited these ships. The smaller handysize vessels are trading around the $11,000 per day average level, also steady since at least the winter months, and above OPEX for these vessels. Therefore, outside the capes, owners have been doing relatively well if they purchased their vessels reasonably.

What does the future hold? There is pessimism by many analysts in the dry bulk market for the remainder of this year and next year. Judging from the ship order books and an uncertain global economic picture for several years including unrest in the Middle-East, high oil prices, high debt levels in the developed world, I also fear a several year cycle of depressed freight rates. Freights are at current low levels even in the environment of relatively strong economic growth in China, India, Brazil and other emerging markets, with record levels of iron ore still being shipped into China, and increasing coal and grain movements around the world. Can one imagine if China went into recession? However, there is a case to be made that the rebuilding of Japan, and the potential shutdown of additional nuclear plants, would translate to significant amounts of additional iron ore, steel and thermal coal movements, which may be enough to put a floor under freights. If China were to keep growing at present levels, then dry bulk may avoid the worst. However, I feel at best we will experience a bumpy ride for the next few years.

Next report, we will look more in depth at the near term.



Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Miral Shipping Market Report

BDI to Test June 2009 Highs

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Since my last report on October 8, the BDI has been firm and in the past two weeks, its increase has intensified. After an over 20% rise last week, the BDI's current momentum suggests that this year's highs, in most vessel categories, will be tested shortly.

Shipping Market Report

As mentioned in my previous reports, government stimulus spending in China and in other major countries has benefited the global dry bulk trade. Several factors that were in play during 2007 and the first half of 2008 that drove the BDI to record levels have re-asserted themselves this year. The rapidly weakening dollar and the associated increasing prices of commodities are an important side-effect of the US government policy of increased spending and assistance to the banking / financial sector. Billions of US dollars have flooded global markets, driving up many asset prices, including the prices of many commodities that are transported in dry bulk vessels.

Very often, these global trends last a long time; longer than many would think. This is also true in the dry bulk shipping market, which relies on the health of global trade. Earlier this year, many (myself included) were skeptical of the duration of this rally, and for good reason. One cannot say that the difficulties in the global economy have been "fixed" within only one year; nor could we have been unconcerned about the amount of new buildings scheduled to enter the market. I'm sure there will be more difficult times ahead, but for now we cannot yet buck the trend – it is for higher freight, and it will remain so until the technical and or fundamental indicators change.

Let's break it down by vessel category:

The Capesize market has been on a tear lately. The Capesize Index stands at 7326; its 4 TC average at 78,075, an increase of nearly 30% in only ten days. We hear reports of increased coal and ore movement in the Atlantic probably destined for Europe; as well as the continued near record imports of ore into China. Port congestion in Chinese ore ports is re-emerging, thus the upward squeeze on Capesize freight.

The Panamax market has run similarly upward, standing at 4091; 4 TC average at 32,879, an approximate 10% increase in the last week. The Panamaxes are participating in the increased coal and ore movements, but there have also been substantial increases in grain transportation from the U.S. Gulf. The weak US dollar has greatly contributed to the reported 30% increase in US exports so far this year, a statistic that is certainly pleasing to US. Government officials and ship-owners alike, as agricultural commodities should make up a large part of this increase.

The Handymax and Handysize freight markets have also increased, but have initially lagged behind the Capesize and Panamax markets. Now they are catching up, with the Handymax index up nearly 5% today alone. The Handysize market was up a little more than 10% in the last week. The US Gulf and India have been particularly active in these vessel segments recently. The Handymax and Handysize Index stand today at 2257 and 985, respectively.

Where do we go from here?

Let's look at the technical clues first. The test for the Capesize market will be if it could surpass the mid US $90,000s 4 TC average. The Panamax market has already surpassed the last resistance point in the high US $20,000s 4 TC average, and the next major resistance is in the low US $40,000s. Handymaxes have also surpassed near-term resistance, and their next test is in the low US $30,000s. Handys are just at near-term resistance, and I would expect them also to follow the larger vessels through. Therefore, it appears as though 20% to over 30% upside now exists in Capes – Handys before new resistance is encountered.

Global macro economic trends appear to have some staying power as well. U.S. government policy is not likely to change at least for the near to possibly medium term. Therefore, the dollar looks to stay weak, and commodity prices elevated. Several government stimuli, China's - of particular importance to dry bulk freight, appear to be in place for a while. India also has needs for a substantial amount of tonnage. Furthermore, the anticipated growth in vessel supply has not yet been realized. Delays and cancellations in new buildings have greatly limited supply growth of new ships, and freights have increased with the rise in vessel demand seen recently. However, a substantial rise in new building deliveries, or decrease in economic stimulus in China and other major economies would end this rally quickly. Stay tuned !!

Editor's Note:

This article should interest shipping market investors in securities including: Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), Nasdaq: Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX).


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.

Large Vessel Markets Recover

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MIRAL SHIPPING MARKET REPORT

Authored October 8, 2009

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Large Vessel Markets Recover

Due to a month long trip to Europe and the Middle East, I have not been able to write my report recently. However, the trip provided me the opportunity to reflect on the momentous changes that have occurred in the last year, and consider various views and opinions from a different part of the world on the state of the global economy and the future of dry bulk shipping.

As we stand now in early October, 2009, those in dry bulk shipping can look back on a year that has seen rates and vessel values drop significantly from record levels achieved last year. Though the drop in rates was considerable, the dry bulk sector has still fared better than other areas of shipping including most tankers and container vessels. Most owners can operate their ships well above their operating costs, whereas owners of other vessel types have seen freight rates at or below OPEX during several months of this year.

The BRIC countries, led by China, have experienced a strong economic recovery, which has supported the dry bulk sector more than most could have thought possible. Many reputable economists believe that China and the rest of Asia plus Brazil, and possibly Russia, will continue to lead global growth while the U.S.A. and Europe will grow only slowly at best. There is evidence that the credit crisis and global recession has started China on the path of rebalancing their economy by stimulating domestic consumption and continuing to rapidly develop their infrastructure. Trade with other Asian countries is also increasing.

All this is positive for the demand side of the dry bulk sector. China will continue to increase production, and of course, its inputs such as iron ore. The supply side, however, is problematic with a still huge order-book of new dry bulk vessels, of which, a large percentage is over 40,000 tons dead weight, particularly Capesize. It is hard to say at this moment whether the demand from the developing countries will absorb so much tonnage into the large vessel markets. From here, we have to look at shorter-term trends.

Last week, the Capesize market had a strong recovery after bottoming out approximately two weeks ago. The index stands today at 3990, and has room to move higher by 15 – 20 percent or so before it should hit some resistance. The Panamax market, which lagged, has moved up sharply today and will most likely break nearby resistance and also potentially move higher by another 15% or so. The Baltic Supramax and Handysize sectors have been softening the last few days, but their day rates did not fall during August - September as Capesize and Panamax tonnage have. I expect the recent firming in dry bulk freight rates to continue over the next month or two, as the North American grain export season is in full swing; thermal coal shipments increase in advance of winter in the Northern Hemisphere; and the iron ore trade stays firm.


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.

BDI Recovering - All Eyes on China

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Miral Shipping Freight Market Report

Authored July 15, 2009


Independent Shipbroker & Consultant to commodities traders, Alexander Miral offers Wall Street Greek readers a timely take on the Shipping Freight Market.

BDI Recovering After Recent Slump

During the past three weeks, the Baltic Dry Index fell to 2975 points or just over 30 percent, and now has risen back to 3324. Most of the drop in rates was in the capesize sector (over 100,000 tons deadweight), which has fallen to 4788, or approximately 40%, but has now recovered to 5549. Other vessel classes have been less volatile; the panamax ship index (over 60,000 dwt) went slightly negative to 2955, less than 5 percent, before turning positive and closing today at 3141; the supramax index (50,000 dwt) stood at 1953 and handysize (below 40,000 dwt) just over 800. Both vessel indexes have posted slight gains of approximately 5 percent.

Much has happened in this time. Iron Ore shipments to China seem to have slowed amidst difficult talks going on between Australian iron ore suppliers and Chinese buyers. The Chinese are still fighting for more than the 33% price reduction agreed to with other Asian steel producers. Negotiations are such that three workers of Rio Tinto were detained in Shanghai by the Chinese authorities for espionage and bribery!

Panamax, Supramax and handysize vessels all have benefited from healthy amounts of grain, fertilizer and coal currently being shipped. The main areas of strength continue to be out of East Coast South America and the US Gulf to both Atlantic and Far East destinations.

Going forward, all eyes are on China, which continues to show signs of strength. Chinese GDP growth appears to be headed for 8% for 2009, a remarkable achievement. Fixed investment and retail sales have shown large gains in May. Furthermore, the Chinese auto sector alone was recently reported to have grown by more than 48% year-over-year in June. Exports are also showing stabilization and even a slight rise after falling considerably earlier this year.

Certainly a substantial part of this growth is related to Chinese government stimulus packages and incentives, and there are doubts about how much underlying demand there would be without the stimulus. Nevertheless, it appears as though the Chinese authorities will continue to support growth of 8% or more, a positive for the global freight market. The expected supply of new vessels later this year may be a negative factor, depending mainly on whether Chinese demand continues.

Technically, the Baltic Freight Index is looking for support, and the situation is different for every vessel class. The Capesize market shows major support at the $40,000 TC average and appeared to be headed that way, but it found support yesterday (at least temporarily) at approximately $53,000 and has already risen 10% from there. It could now rise to over $70,000 TCE before hitting major resistance.

The Panamax index, which stands now at a more historically average differential to the capsize market, has been in a technical triangle for nearly two months, but appears to be breaking the pattern on the upside and could move up another 10% before finding resistance. Supramaxes are close to resistance on the upside and could break out shortly, in my view. Handysizes have approximately 10% more upside before major resistance.

Also interesting to note: the Baltic Exchange is changing the way it will calculate the Baltic Dry index (BDI). It will only use timecharter rates to calculate the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize indexes, and will no longer use voyage rates. These changes are meant to facilitate derivative trading, and we will keep a close eye on its effect on the BDI.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.

BDI Off Recent Peaks

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MIRAL SHIPPING FREIGHT MARKET REPORT

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BDI Off Recent Peaks

In the past two weeks, the BDI hit a peak, then corrected approximately 20%, then began another move higher to test the near-term highs of two - three weeks ago. It appears as though the freight market has now tested these highs and did not break through them. As has been the case recently, the Capesize segment (ships over 100,000 tons deadweight) has been the largest beneficiary with historically high freight differentials over panamax vessels (60-80,000 tons deadweight). Rates for Supramax (50-60,000 dwt) and handymax (40-50,000 dwt) vessels have been firm but have lagged behind the larger vessels for the most part. Smaller handies (under 40,000 deadweight) have continued to participate least in this rally.

As of today (June 23), The Baltic Freight Index stood at 3874, while the capesize, panamax and supramax indexes were 7441, 3021 and 1757, respectively. Last Friday, June 19th, the BDI was at 4070, only about 200 points from the recent highs.

The same market forces have been at work during the past two weeks as have been the case since February. Chinese iron ore demand is the single largest factor driving demand for capesize and panamax vessels, and port congestion in Brazil, Australia and China has continued. There also have been increases in mineral shipments (mainly iron ore and coal) to Europe and Japan, contributing to higher rates for capes and panamaxes in the major Atlantic and Pacific trade routes.

As it looks that the BDI has tested the recent highs of two weeks ago, and has now started to retreat, there is a good chance the market will correct about 20% or more to test the near-term lows - particularly in the capesize and panamax sizes. This must be watched carefully.

Key issues that could determine the near-term moves in the BDI:

1. The differential between capesize and other vessel classes remain much wider than historical averages. Thus, either capesize rates should drop or those of panamaxes should increase. As of today, these rates have begun to narrow.
   
2. Commodity prices, steel in China being among the most important, are another indicator. For example, if Chinese steel prices do not increase with freight rates, eventually demand for iron ore and vessels should drop. Prices of several commodities dropped yesterday; whether this trend continues is uncertain and needs to be watched.
   
3. Developments in Iran can also potentially have an effect; freight could be impacted if the conflict intensifies and pushes up the price of fuel and disrupts or re-routes commodity flows - particularly for smaller vessel classes, and of course, oil tankers.
   
4. Finally, supply of new vessels may be an issue but so far looks like their impact would occur later this year.

We will keep you updated on important developments.


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.

BDI Continues Rapid Increase

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Miral Shipping Freight Market Report

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BDI Continues Rapid Increase

In the past week, there have been astounding increases in the drybulk freight market. So far, these increases have been greatly skewed towards the Capesize segment (ships over 100,000 tons deadweight); though panamaxes (60-80,000 tons deadweight) are also showing large increases. Supramaxes and smaller vessels have not yet participated much in this rally. The Baltic Freight Index (BDI) currently stands at 4291, while the Capesize, Panamax and Supramax indexes are at 8147, 3505, 1862, respectively. Most often, in market rallies the larger ships lead on the way up, but during market corrections they also lead on the way down.

The big story is the incredible increase in the Capesize vessel rates during the past ten days, where the timecharter average has almost doubled. They increased 16% on June 2nd, alone! The cause has been mainly due to increased iron ore demand from China, and with it, now considerable port congestion in the iron ore loading areas of Brazil and Australia, and also the discharge ports in China. Port congestion takes ships off the market, and its effect usually causes an amplification of the upward pressure on freight rates.

The next strong resistance level for Capes is at about $115,000 per day 4 TC average; for panamaxes around $38,000 per day; and supramaxes $32,000 per day. For the overall BDI, the next resistance level is approximately 4700. The rate of market ascent makes it appear that these levels might be reached within the next week, though there are some reasons to be more cautious.

Going forward there are certain key issues to keep in mind. The differential between capesize and other vessel classes are now historically wide. For example, average capesize rates are now more than 3 times those of panamaxes. A key reason behind this seems to be due to iron ore trade's role as the chief driver of this rally, compared to demand for most other commodities, which have increased significantly less. When differentials become so wide, there is the potential for significant narrowing. The question is in which direction... It appears now that iron ore demand will require the use of smaller vessels, therefore, one can expect these rates to increase further. We also have to wait and see where the capesize market levels off, and measure its sustainability before the amount of increase in the smaller vessels becomes clear. Also, the grain and coal trades must be watched. Further demand for these commodities can drive up the rates for the smaller vessels quickly.

Chinese authorities may turn off the switch

Due to the large quantities of cargoes destined for China that were reportedly purchased purely on speculation, there is a strong possibility of the Chinese government stepping in and canceling or curtailing future shipments. This has happened before and when it does happen, freight rates can plunge as fast as they went up. Will there be such action by the Chinese authorities? How high does the market go before any such action? Nobody knows outside the Chinese government.

The weaker dollar certainly plays a role. The periods of the highest freight rates have generally coincided with periods of a lower dollar. This time is no different, and indicates how global government policies can affect dry bulk shipping. In this case, stimulus spending in China is clearly affecting the demand for freight. A large flood of liquidity seems to be fueling speculation in commodity markets, much as it did during 2008. These trends look set to continue for the foreseeable future and are positive for shipping as long as they last.

Finally, the predicted oversupply of vessels (particularly capsizes) has not yet materialized, with the deliveries of most new vessels reportedly delayed. This is also positive for freight rates in the near-term.

However, the most significant factor right now is the strong demand for iron ore in China. Resistance levels at about 30% above today's freight levels for capesizes, and approximately 50% for panamaxes and smaller vessels, should be strong. We will further advise important developments when they occur.


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.

ALERT: Shipping Rates Increase Further

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Shipping Rates Increase

I would like to alert my readers that shipping rates are moving sharply higher this week led by capesize ships. Important information emerging this week is the beginning of settlements of iron ore price negotiations between major Asian buyers and Brazilian suppliers. That is giving an extra lift to freight rates; therefore, the technical breakout seen last week prevailed. Freight prices on Capesizes (currently at $56,698 four TC average) look to quickly test the next resistance level at about $70,000 per day. Panamaxes and Supramaxes (at $20,934 and $19,083 respectively) to follow suit to near $25,000 per day.


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. (Tickers: SEA, EGLE, GNK, DSX, NAT, SINO, PRGN, XSEAX, DIA, SPY, QQQQ, NYX, DOG, SDS, QLD, EWZ, XBZLX, BZF, PXI, SNP).

Miral Shipping Freight Market Report - May-08-09

Visit the front pages of Wall Street Greek and Market Moving News to see our current coverage of economic reports and financial markets.

(Tickers: SEA, EGLE, GNK, DSX, NAT, SINO, PRGN, XSEAX, DIA, SPY, QQQQ, NYX, DOG, SDS, QLD, EWZ, XBZLX, BZF, PXI, SNP)

Miral Shipping Freight Market Report

Authored on May 8, 2009

The freight market has undergone some change in the past month. In my last report, authored about a month ago, the freight market had been drifting downward, seeking to test previous lows. This occurred approximately two weeks ago when the BDI dropped to 1500, and the Panamax TC average dipped briefly below $10,000 per day. The Capesize TC average moved into the mid-to-high teens. Handys and Handymaxes dropped less percentage wise.

Since then, freight rates in all vessel categories have risen dramatically - The Capes TC average moved up to $10,000 per day; Panamaxes up to $7500 per day and handys and handymaxes up less dramatically (but they also did not fall as far).

Chinese iron ore and coal imports are largely responsible, but there has also been increased commodity movements to smaller developing countries. Also, trade financing is slowly recovering, allowing for more bulk commodity sales. Stimulus spending in China is already resulting in the commencement of infrastructure projects. Iron ore imports there are at a pace to exceed 500 million tons in 2009 - approximately 18% above 2008 levels. Chinese Coal imports are also reportedly up 40% from last year.

The purchase of raw materials and food related commodities are also assisting emerging markets such as Brazil, where the stock market is up approximately 75% from its lows. US stimulus may also have a positive impact on dry bulk freight, but that impact is probably several months in the future.

Today, the freight market has declined a little in the large sized vessels, which is likely due to charterers trying to pull back after the large and rapid increase in rates. There may be a few more days of a mini pull back, but freight levels should remain firm in the short term and may test the levels reached in February, where there was strong resistance.


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. (Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD, AMEX: SDK).

Dry Bulk Shipping Trade, by Alexander Miral

Senior Analyst

Dry Bulk Shipping Trade

Mr. Alexander J. Miral, founder of Miral Shipping Company, is an independent shipbroker and consultant to commodity traders. Mr. Miral was born in 1965 in New York. He graduated from the University of Southern California in 1987 where he received a B.A. in Economics. He earned an M.A. from Columbia University's School of International and Public as well as a certificate from the Harriman Institute of Central and East European studies in 2001.

After finishing undergraduate studies, Alexander joined his family's shipping company, Miral Marine Corporation, where he worked until December 1999 in all facets of the company's commercial operations. Alex's responsibilities included ship brokering between shipping companies and multinational trading conglomerates (Including Czarnikow-Rionda, Mitsubishi International and Marubeni USA); strategic planning including research and analysis of worldwide transportation needs and projected future costs of commodity shipments; and international sales and marketing.

After completing his Master's degree, Alex returned to the shipping industry in May 2002. Alex took up a position in shipping finance with Poseidon Capital Corp until December 2003. Poseidon focused on raising equity financing for shipping assets including tankers and dry cargo vessels. After briefly working for Alpha Chartering, Alex started Miral Shipping Company in April 2004, and handled sugar transportation for Marubeni USA and salt for Chemical Equipment Labs until April 2005. After two years in commercial operations at Genco Ship Management (April 2005 – early 2007), Alex set forth as an independent shipbroker and consultant to commodity traders.

"I've had an opportunity to get to know Alex a bit, and I am excited about adding him as a contributor. Alex's weekly "Miral Freight Market Report" is a perfect complement to the content and theme of our blog. But besides that, his personality and character also fit well within this group of great people and strong content contributors."

"The Greek"

Alex's Email: amiral@wallstreetgreek. com
The Greek's Email: greek@wallstreetgreek. com

Miral's Article Portfolio:

• Dry Bulk Shipping Recovery?
• Turbulent Seas Have Arrived
• Dry Bulk Market Report
• Shipping Outlook: Q4 2010
• The View From Greece
• Shipping Forecast 2010
• BDI to Test June 2009 Highs
• Large Vessel Markets Recover
• BDI Off Recent Peaks
• BDI Continues Rapid Increase
• ALERT: Shipping Rates May Increase Further
• Capesize Rates May Be Extended
• Miral Shipping Freight Market Report - May-08-09

Full Disclosure: Alex has agreed to Wall Street Greek policy to avoid the authoring of articles about securities he personally owns or holds beneficial interest in. In the event of a special case, we expect Alex will make full disclosure of ownership or beneficial interest, which is his responsibility. The work of contributors to Wall Street Greek is their own, and may not necessarily agree with the opinion of the site or its founder, and does not constitute financial advice. Please see our full disclosure at Wall Street Greek. (Tickers: SEA, EGLE, GNK, DSX, NAT, SINO, PRGN, XSEAX, DIA, SPY, QQQQ, NYX, DOG, SDS, QLD).