TODAY’S MARKET: It’s Getting Tense Around Here

Investors are basically passing the time now until the Fed monetary policy release due Wednesday afternoon. Monday’s relief rally should evolve into intensifying tension as we near the event. It has the ability to send stocks into the first 10% correction in 41 months (23 months overdue), or it could drive a restoration rally. Everything depends on that one little word, “patient,” and whether the Fed leaves it in the statement or not. If it remains, investors will celebrate that rate hikes must be at least put off until September or later; if it is removed, they’ll prematurely panic about June. Stay tuned… Follow our stock market blog here for timely updates.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Today’s Market

U.S. Markets

Market ETF	03-16-15
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+1.3%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+1.3%
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+1.3%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	-0.1%
iShares US Real Estate (NYSE: IYR)	+1.1%
United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-2.7%
PowerShares DB US$  Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	-0.8%
PIMCO Total Return ETF (NYSE: BOND)	-0.0%

Stocks saw a bit of a relief rally Monday as the dollar came off its highs. I would not count on more of this as we near the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Statement release. In fact, I would expect stocks to sell-off again and volatility to pickup.

International Markets

03-16-15 Close

EUROPE	%	ASIA/PACIFIC	%
Vanguard FTSE Europe (NYSE: VGK)	+1.3%	Precidian MAXIS Nikkei (NYSE: NKY)	+0.6%
iShares MSCI UK (NYSE: EWU)	+1.1%	SPDR S&P China (NYSE: GXC)	+1.4%
iShares MSCI France (NYSE: EWQ)	+1.7%	iShares Asia 50 (NYSE: AIA)	+1.5%
iShares MSCI Germany (NYSE: EWG)	+2.5%	iShares MSCI S. Korea (NYSE: EWY)	+1.5%
Global X FTSE Greece (NYSE: GREK)	-0.3%	iPath MSCI India (NYSE: INP)	+1.0%

The international markets rallied Monday.

Economic Data

Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected
TUESDAY
FOMC Meeting Begins
Redbook Store Sales	2.6%
Housing Starts	1.065 M	1.048 M
-Permits	1.053 M	1.058 M

Tuesday’s economic slate includes the start of the infamous FOMC meeting, the one after which all hell could break loose should the Fed remove the cautionary language that keeps it from raising interest rates. That will come on Wednesday afternoon though.

For now, investors have the Housing Starts data to look forward to. Economists expect February’s data to show a similar annual pace of new residential construction, or slightly lower than that of January. Of course, if it follows through that way, the weather will get the blame. The problem with that is that other than north of New York, and perhaps Buffalo and some of the Midwest, the weather has not been all too bad. I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a decent result for housing starts, but even if we do not, expectations are for a solid spring selling season so this data holds little power to influence stocks. Permits are seen edging up a bit, reflecting expectations for a better March and April.

Redbook’s annual same-store sales change showed an increase of 2.6% last week. Expect something similar for the current report.

Commodity Markets

(03-16-15 Close)

United States Oil (NYSE: USO)	-2.7%
iPath SP Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-3.3%
U.S. Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG)	+0.6%
U.S. Gasoline (NYSE: UGA)	-1.4%
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)	-0.1%
Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)	+0.2%
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)	+0.6%
iPath DJ UBS Industrial Metals (NYSE: JJM)	-0.1%
Teucrium Corn ETF (NYSE: CORN)	-0.2%
Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE: WEAT)	+3.3%
Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSE: SOYB)	-0.3%
iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa (NYSE: NIB)	+0.2%
iPath DJ-UBS Sugar (NYSE: SGG)	+0.7%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+1.3%
CME Lumber	-0.2%
CME Live Cattle	-0.2%

Oil collapsed and tested lows Monday despite the dollar coming off its high ground. The energy market was a bit panicked about the supposed oil glut, but I’ll have more to say on this topic over the next day or two so stay tuned. Otherwise, commodities should have traded higher on a softer dollar.

Stock Activity

The earnings schedule for Tuesday includes Adobe and Oracle, and a few others.

EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
TUESDAY
Adobe Systems	Nasdaq: ADBE
Arcos Dorados	Nasdaq: ARCO
Bacterin Int’l	Nasdaq: BONE
Burlington Stores	Nasdaq: BURL
Champions Oncology	Nasdaq: CSBR
CleanDiesel Technologies	Nasdaq: CDTI
DSW Inc.	NYSE: DSW
E Commerce China Dangdang	Nasdaq: DANG
FactSet Research	NYSE: FDS
InterOil	NYSE: IOC
Navigator Holdings	Nasdaq: NVGS
Nevada Gold & Casinos	NYSE: UWN
Oracle	Nasdaq: ORCL
Pacific Sunwear	Nasdaq: PSUN
Paragon Shipping	Nasdaq: PRGN
Rentech Nitrogen Partners	NYSE: RNF
RSP Permian	Nasdaq: RSPP
Sky Solar Holdings	Nasdaq: SKYS
Taomee Holdings	Nasdaq: TAOM
Youku Tudou	Nasdaq: YOKU
Zebra Technologies	Nasdaq: ZBRA

YESTERDAY’S MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
BIGGEST GAINERS	% Gain
Sterling Construction (Nasdaq: STRL)	+30%
Recro Pharma (Nasdaq: REPH)	+26%
Affimed N.V. (Nasdaq: AFMD)	+23%
Inovio Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: INO)	+20%
Flex Pharma (Nasdaq: FLKS)	+18%
MELA Sciences (Nasdaq: MELA)	+17%
Bellerophon Therapeutics (Nasdaq: BLPH)	+15%
Microvision (Nasdaq: MVIS)	+15%
Minerva Neurosciences (Nasdaq: NERV)	+14%
Carver Bancorp (Nasdaq: CARV)	+14%
BIGGEST LOSERS	% Drop
iDreamSky Technologies (Nasdaq: DSKY)	-33%
Mechel OAO (NYSE: MTL)	-32%
KBS Fashion Group (Nasdaq: KBSF)	-27%
Anthera Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ANTH)	-27%
NTELOS Holdings (Nasdaq: NTLS)	-24%
New Source Energy (Nasdaq: NSLP)	-22%
Profire Energy (Nasdaq: PFIE)	-19%
Seventy Seven Energy (NYSE: SSE)	-16%
Synthetic Biologics (NYSE: SYN)	-15%
LiqTech Int’l (Nasdaq: LIQT)	-15%

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is short UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.