FRIDAY THE 13TH STOCK MARKET OMEN
Friday the 13th is offering an omen about next week. It’s all about the Fed meeting folks, as stocks look ahead to the Wednesday Monetary Policy Statement. When the Fed likely removes that “patient” language from its statement, investors will panic even more and I expect our first market correction in 41 months will ensue. Keep risk off. Follow our blog on Facebook.
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.
Stocks are looking ahead to next week as we close out this one. As a result, we’re setting up to close our third straight week in the red. It’s all about the Fed meeting next week, and despite yesterday’s bounce which I correctly said would be temporary, we should revisit that 100-day moving average for the indexes and break through toward the 200-day. The Fed will have less to say next week about patience, and stocks will correct as I predicted.
The day’s economic data did not have much punch, despite its importance. We can thank the Lord no sign of inflation turned up in the PPI data, but consumer sentiment slipped according to the University of Michigan report. It’s mixed news, which I suppose can be taken as having a negative skew to it. When we put the sentiment data into context, coming days after the retail sales disappointment, it’s a sour economic note. It’s favorable though for stocks, given that bad news is good news now for as long as it influences the Fed’s rate timeline. Unfortunately, I think the market is sadly confused about the Fed. Next week’s meeting will be absent the word “patient” but investors will panic again and fear a June rate action, when one will not come until September.
The corporate earnings schedule is light today. We want to remind you that we made two correct calls over the past two days, predicting Shake Shak (Nasdaq: SHAK) would disappoint and Ulta Salon (Nasdaq: ULTA) would impress. Both played out as we expected and the shares moved significantly and in the directions we expected.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.
Sector Security
|
03-13-15
|
Vanguard S&P 500 (NYSE: VOO)
|
-0.9%
|
iShares Dow Jones (NYSE: IYY)
|
-0.7%
|
Fidelity NASDAQ ETF (Nasdaq:
ONEQ)
|
-0.6%
|
ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE: UGL)
|
-0.1%
|
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (NYSE: URE)
|
-0.6%
|
ProShares Ultra Oil (NYSE: UCO)
|
-6.8%
|
WisdomTree US$ Bullish (NYSE:
USDU)
|
+0.9%
|
iShares 20+ Yr. Treasury (NYSE: TLT)
|
+0.2%
|
Friday the 13th & Stocks
Stocks are looking ahead to next week as we close out this one. As a result, we’re setting up to close our third straight week in the red. It’s all about the Fed meeting next week, and despite yesterday’s bounce which I correctly said would be temporary, we should revisit that 100-day moving average for the indexes and break through toward the 200-day. The Fed will have less to say next week about patience, and stocks will correct as I predicted.
Economic Reports
FRIDAY’S ECONOMIC REPORT
SCHEDULE
|
|||
Economic Data Point
|
Prior
|
Expected
|
Actual
|
FRIDAY
|
|||
-0.8%
|
0.3%
|
-0.5%
|
|
-Core PPI
|
-0.1%
|
0.1%
|
-0.5%
|
Consumer Sentiment (Mich.)
|
95.4
|
96.0
|
91.2
|
The day’s economic data did not have much punch, despite its importance. We can thank the Lord no sign of inflation turned up in the PPI data, but consumer sentiment slipped according to the University of Michigan report. It’s mixed news, which I suppose can be taken as having a negative skew to it. When we put the sentiment data into context, coming days after the retail sales disappointment, it’s a sour economic note. It’s favorable though for stocks, given that bad news is good news now for as long as it influences the Fed’s rate timeline. Unfortunately, I think the market is sadly confused about the Fed. Next week’s meeting will be absent the word “patient” but investors will panic again and fear a June rate action, when one will not come until September.
EPS Reports
The corporate earnings schedule is light today. We want to remind you that we made two correct calls over the past two days, predicting Shake Shak (Nasdaq: SHAK) would disappoint and Ulta Salon (Nasdaq: ULTA) would impress. Both played out as we expected and the shares moved significantly and in the directions we expected.
HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
|
|
Company
|
Ticker
|
FRIDAY
|
|
AEP Industries
|
Nasdaq: AEPI
|
Ann Inc.
|
NYSE: ANN
|
Buckle
|
NYSE: BKE
|
Citi Trends
|
Nasdaq: CTRN
|
CorMedix
|
Nasdaq: CRMD
|
Ebix
|
Nasdaq: EBIX
|
Hibbett Sports
|
Nasdaq: HIBB
|
Morgans Hotel Group
|
Nasdaq: MHGC
|
Silvercrest Asset Management
|
Nasdaq: SAMG
|
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals
|
Nasdaq: SPPI
|
Sprague Resources
|
Nasdaq: SRLP
|
TravelCenters of America
|
NYSE: TA
|
Youku Tudou
|
Nasdaq: YOKU
|
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Labels: Market-Outlook, Market-Outlook-2015-Q1
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