Week Ahead – A Feeling of Deep Mistrust Pervades Trading

This week, a feeling of deep mistrust is likely to pervade the feel of trading. There is a palpable fear in the market due to the strong jobs data just reported. The rally post-Greece resolution, however short-lived, is probably done. Investors are looking ahead to the March meeting of the Fed, and I expect it will reinforce traders’ fears by clearing the way for a Fed rate hike at any moment thereafter. Fed hikes won’t come until fall, but stocks will be volatile from now through the summer mostly due to the prospect. Welcome back to the stock-picker’s market. Choose your stocks carefully and pick your timing and spots carefully, as macro drivers will hurt all stocks and push your best ideas into bargain territory at times. Follow our stock market blog.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Week Ahead

Security	YTD	TTM
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	1.0%	12.4%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	0.7%	10.9%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	4.3%	20.0%
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)	-1.9%	-13.3%
iPath S&P Crude Oil (NYSE: OIL)	-9.7%	-54.4%
PIMCO Total Return (Nasdaq: BOND)	0.9%	6.4%
PowerShares DB US $ Bullish (NYSE: UUP)	6.6%	20.7%
iPath S&P VIX ST Futures (NYSE: VXX)	-9.6%	-36.2%

Last week’s trade was seriously influenced by the strong Employment Situation Report on Friday. It sent investors to the exits on fear the Fed could act sooner rather than later. This concern will be exacerbated as we approach the Fed’s March meeting, where it will likely remove some language to free it up to act at any moment thereafter. I’m not expecting Fed action until September, but the market will panic at the prospect nonetheless.

Economic Report Schedule

This week’s economic data is nowhere near as exciting as last week’s schedule. Investors will want to pay close attention to the EIA’s Petroleum Status Report, which comes due on Wednesday. Last week’s oil inventory build was the largest since 2001, and it put inventory levels so high people started to seriously panic about the potential of the U.S. filling capacity. Another large build this week will renew concern, but if we begin to see lighter builds, investors will quickly look forward to the coming seasonal shift to draws from inventory. Put simply, I see oil prices rising at that point.

Expect the job openings data due on Tuesday to garner some attention. I expect it will show increased job opportunities, which has been the trend. The news could remind investors of the upcoming Fed meeting; good news is bad news now for stocks. Small businessmen weigh in on Tuesday with their optimism index; it’s expected to show improvement and I expect that to be the trend as we approach the presidential election of 2016.

Retail sales will be reported this week. Be sure to check on the figure that excludes auto sales and gasoline sales. It is expected to show decent growth over the last reported period, and we will get to see if lower gasoline prices are helping consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is due on Friday, but it comes in second to this report. Also on Friday, the Producer Price Index is a measure of inflation every Fed watcher had better pay attention to. We do not want to see even a speckle of inflation, because it brings with it the specter of faster Fed rate action.

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected
MONDAY
TD Ameritrade IMX	4.85
Fed’s Mester Speaks
Fed’s Fisher Speaks
TUESDAY
NFIB Small Biz Index	97.9	99.0
JOLTS – Job Openings	5.028 M	5.075 M
Wholesale Trade – Inventories	0.1%	0.1%
-Sales
Redbook Store Sales	2.7%
WEDNESDAY
Mortgage Activity	0.1%
EIA Petroleum Status
-Crude Oil Inventory	10.3 MB
-Gasoline Inventory	0.0 MB
Treasury Budget	$-17.5B	$-186.5B
Quarterly Services Survey
THURSDAY
Weekly Jobless Claims	320K	309K
Retail Sales	-0.8%	0.3%
-Ex Autos & Gasoline	0.2%	0.5%
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	43.5
EIA Natural Gas Report	-228 bcf
Export Prices	-2.0%	-0.1%
-Import Prices	-2.8%	0.2%
Business Trade (Sales)
-Inventories	0.1%	0.1%
FRIDAY
Producer Price Index	-0.8%	0.3%
-Core PPI	-0.1%	0.1%
Consumer Sentiment (Mich.)	95.4	96.0

EPS Report Schedule

There are still earnings reports coming in, especially because it’s the final quarter of the year for most firms. They tend to report later in the quarter because of the annual information that is released at its conclusion.

The week offers a couple companies I have been following closely but have not written about. Bitauto (Nasdaq: BITA) reports on Monday, and it’ll be interesting to see if recent China softness infects this previously super-performing stock. China has hurt other previously hot regional ideas. BITA had fallen to as low as $50 in the quarter and was a buy there, but it has run up ahead of the earnings report; I wouldn’t trade it purely for the EPS report, but if I owned it I would still own some it for the long-term. Ulta Salon (Nasdaq: ULTA) is probably one of my favorite long-term ideas I have not written about. It’s one of those Peter Lynch 10-baggers, and I would own it for the long-term. Quarterly consistency for ULTA had been sketchy in the past, but it seems to be better managed now and ready to keep growing. I would bear the risk of volatility even ahead of the report.

Several of the hottest restaurant names of recent IPO fame report EPS this week. Stay away from Shake Shak (Nasdaq: SHAK) and probably the rest of them, as they are mostly too hotly valued to perform to expectations.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
MONDAY
21Vianet Group	Nasdaq: VNET
58.com	Nasdaq: WUBA
AcelRx Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: ACRX
Adams Resources & Energy	NYSE: AE
Airmedia Group	Nasdaq: AMCN
Alexza Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: ALXA
American Midstream Partners	Nasdaq: AMID
Bitauto Holdings	Nasdaq: BITA
Blueknight Energy	Nasdaq: BKEP
Casey’s General Store	Nasdaq: CASY
Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust	Nasdaq: CHKR
Enduro Royalty Trust	Nasdaq: NDRO
Global Brass & Copper	Nasdaq: BRSS
Global Power Equipment Group	Nasdaq: GLPW
IDT	NYSE: IDT
iKang Healthcare	Nasdaq: KANG
ImmunoCellular Therapeutics	Nasdaq: IMUC
InfuSystems	Nasdaq: INFU
Korn/Ferry	NYSE: KFY
Landauer	NYSE: LDR
LightInTheBox	Nasdaq: LITB
Midstates Petroleum	NYSE: MPO
Millennial Media	NYSE: MM
Mindray Medical	NYSE: MR
Molycorp	NYSE: MCP
NACCO Industries	NYSE: NC
NII Holdings	Nasdaq: NIHDQ
Nuverra Environmental Solutions	NYSE: NES
OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: OGXI
Paragon Shipping	Nasdaq: PRGN
Pendrell	NYSE: PCO
Phoenix New Media	Nasdaq: FENG
POZEN	Nasdaq: POZN
QEP Midstream	Nasdaq: QEPM
Qihoo 360	Nasdaq: QIHU
Regional Management	NYSE: RM
Sabine Oil & Gas	Nasdaq: SOGC
SandRidge Mississippian Trust I	NYSE: SDT
SandRidge Permian Trust	NYSE: PER
Stellus Capital Investment	NYSE: SCM
Stemline Therapeutics	Nasdaq: STML
Synta Pharmacetucals	Nasdaq: SNTA
Systemax	NYSE: SYX
Ultrapetrol	Nasdaq: ULTR
United Natural Foods	Nasdaq: UNFI
Urban Outfitters	Nasdaq: URBN
XO Group	Nasdaq: XOXO
TUESDAY
Alliance HealthCare Services	NYSE: AIQ
Analogic	Nasdaq: ALOG
Anthera Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: ANTH
Asterias Biotherapeutics	NYSE: AST
Atento SA	Nasdaq: ATTO
Barnes & Noble	NYSE: BKS
Bridgepoint Education	NYSE: BPI
China Digital TV	NYSE: STV
China Lodging Group	Nasdaq: HTHT
Commercial Vehicle Group	Nasdaq: CVGI
Connexture	Nasdaq: CNXR
Emerald Oil	NYSE: EOX
Era Group	NYSE: ERA
FuelCell Energy	Nasdaq: FCEL
Global Cash Access	NYSE: GCA
Global Sources	Nasdaq: GSOL
GTT Communications	NYSE: GTT
Habit Restaurants	Nasdaq: HABT
Horizon Technology	Nasdaq: HRZN
KCAP Financial	Nasdaq: KCAP
Kopin	Nasdaq: KOPN
Kronos Worldwide	NYSE: KRO
Lincoln Education	Nasdaq: LINC
LMI Aerospace	Nasdaq: LMIA
Microvision	Nasdaq: MVIS
MRV Communications	Nasdaq: MRVC
NCI Building Systems	NYSE: NCS
New Source Energy	Nasdaq: NSLP
NL Industries	NYSE: NL
Northwest Pipe	Nasdaq: NWPX
Ocular Therapeutix	Nasdaq: OCUL
Oil-Dri Corp.	NYSE: ODC
Optical Cable	NYSE: OCC
Perfect World	Nasdaq: PWRD
Providence Service	Nasdaq: PRSC
Saga Communications	NYSE: SGA
Salem Media	Nasdaq: SALM
SINA	Nasdaq: SINA
STR Holdings	Nasdaq: STRI
Superior Industries	NYSE: SUP
Supernus Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: SUPN
Surgical Care Affiliates	Nasdaq: SCAI
TCP Capital	Nasdaq: TCPC
TherapeuticsMD	Nasdaq: TXMD
THL Credit	Nasdaq: TCRD
VeriFone	NYSE: PAY
Weibo	NYSE: WB
Williams-Sonoma	NYSE: WSM
Zogenix	Nasdaq: ZGNX
WEDNESDAY
American Residential Properties	Nasdaq: ARPI
Aratana Therapeutics	Nasdaq: PETX
Arc Logistics	Nasdaq: ARCX
Axalta Coating Systems	Nasdaq: AXTA
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: BLCM
Blount Int’l	NYSE: BLT
Box Inc.	NYSE: BOX
Brown Shoe	NYSE: BWS
Cherry Hill Mortgage	Nasdaq: CHMI
China Techfaith Wireless	Nasdaq: CNTF
Citizens	NYSE: CIA
Comtech Telecommunications	Nasdaq: CMTL
Ctrip.com	Nasdaq: CTRP
diaDexus	Nasdaq: DDXS
Douglas Dynamics	Nasdaq: PLOW
Dyadic Int’l	Nasdaq: DYAI
Express	Nasdaq: EXPR
Ferrellgas	NYSE: FGP
FLY Leasing	NYSE: FLY
Fuel Systems	Nasdaq: FSYS
Genie Energy	NYSE: GNE
Homeinns Hotel	Nasdaq: HMIN
Inter Parfums	Nasdaq: IPAR
JP Energy Partners	Nasdaq: JPEP
KongZhong	NYSE: KZ
Krispy Kreme	NYSE: KKD
Luxfer Holdings	Nasdaq: LXFR
Mattress Firm	Nasdaq: MFRM
Memorial Resource Development	NYSE: MRD
Men’s Wearhouse	NYSE: MW
Miller Energy	Nasdaq: MILL
MYR Group	Nasdaq: MYRG
Neff	Nasdaq: NEFF
Omega Protein	NYSE: OME
Par Petroleum	Nasdaq: PARR
Patent Properties	Nasdaq: PPRO
PhotoMedex	Nasdaq: PHMD
Progenics Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: PGNX
Raven Industries	Nasdaq: RAVN
Repros Therapeutics	Nasdaq: RPRX
Rosetta Stone	NYSE: RST
SciClone Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: SCLN
Scientific Games	Nasdaq: SGMS
Shake Shak	Nasdaq: SHAK
Sientra	Nasdaq: SIEN
Superconductor Technologies	Nasdaq: SCON
UMH Properties	NYSE: UMH
Vera Bradley	NYSE: VRA
Warren Resources	Nasdaq: WRES
Workiva	NYSE: WK
XOMA	Nasdaq: XOMA
ZAIS Financial	NYSE: ZFC
Zoe’s Kitchen	Nasdaq: ZOES
THURSDAY
Aeropostale	NYSE: ARO
Allied Motion Technology	Nasdaq: AMOT
Anacor Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: ANAC
Antares Pharma	Nasdaq: ATRS
Athersys	Nasdaq: ATHX
BioAmber	Nasdaq: BIOA
BioDelivery Sciences	Nasdaq: BDSI
Bon-Ton	Nasdaq: BONT
CAMAC Energy	NYSE: CAK
Cantel Medical	NYSE: CMN
Central European Media Ent	Nasdaq: CETV
Children’s Place	Nasdaq: PLCE
Chinacache Int’l	Nasdaq: CCIH
ChipMOS Technologies	Nasdaq: IMOS
Clubcorp	Nasdaq: MYCC
Constellium	Nasdaq: CSTM
CTI BioPharma	Nasdaq: CTIC
CTPartners Executive Search	NYSE: CTP
Cytori Therapeutics	Nasdaq: CYTX
Derma Sciences	Nasdaq: DSCI
Dex Media	NYSE: DXM
Dollar General	NYSE: DG
E Commerce China Dangdang	Nasdaq: DANG
El Pollo Loco	Nasdaq: LOCO
eMagin	Nasdaq: EMAN
Epizyme	Nasdaq: EPZM
FutureFuel	NYSE: FF
Gas Natural	Nasdaq: EGAS
Gastar Exploration	NYSE: GST
Genesco	NYSE: GCO
Global Partners	NYSE: GLP
GSV Capital	Nasdaq: GSVC
Hawaiian Telcom	Nasdaq: HCOM
Hill Int’l	NYSE: HIL
Houston Wire & Cable	Nasdaq: HWCC
Hovnanian	NYSE: HOV
Ignite Restaurant	NYSE: IRG
InspireMD	Nasdaq: NSPR
Investors Real Estate Trust	Nasdaq: IRET
JA Solar	Nasdaq: JASO
Jamba	Nasdaq: JMBA
JG Wentworth	NYSE: JGW
Journal Communications	NYSE: JRN
Kirkland’s	Nasdaq: KIRK
KMG Chemicals	NYSE: KMG
Kratos Defense	Nasdaq: KTOS
LGI Homes	Nasdaq: LGIH
Lifetime Brands	Nasdaq: LCUT
Luna Innovations	Nasdaq: LUNA
Magnetek	NYSE: MAG
Medifast	NYSE: MED
Metaldyne Performance	NYSE: MPG
Natural Gas Services	NYSE: NGS
OHA Inestment	Nasdaq: OHAI
OncoMed	Nasdaq: OMED
ORBCOMM	Nasdaq: ORBC
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: PPHM
Ply Gem	Nasdaq: PGEM
Protalix Biotherapeutics	NYSE: PLX
Qiwi	Nasdaq: QIWI
Re/Max	Nasdaq: RMAX
Revlon	NYSE: REV
Rice Energy	Nasdaq: RICE
Rice Midstream	NYSE: RMP
Shanda Games	Nasdaq: GAME
Springleaf	Nasdaq: LEAF
Stein Mart	Nasdaq: SMRT
Straight Path Communications	Nasdaq: STRP
Sunesis Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: SNSS
Synta Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: SNTA
Tekmira	Nasdaq: TKMR
Towerstream	Nasdaq: TWER
Trovagene	Nasdaq: TROV
Ulta Salon	Nasdaq: ULTA
Vail Resorts	NYSE: MTN
Zumiez	Nasdaq: ZUMZ
FRIDAY
AEP Industries	Nasdaq: AEPI
Ann Inc.	NYSE: ANN
Buckle	NYSE: BKE
Citi Trends	Nasdaq: CTRN
CorMedix	Nasdaq: CRMD
Ebix	Nasdaq: EBIX
Hibbett Sports	Nasdaq: HIBB
Morgans Hotel Group	Nasdaq: MHGC
Silvercrest Asset Management	Nasdaq: SAMG
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: SPPI
Sprague Resources	Nasdaq: SRLP
TravelCenters of America	NYSE: TA
Youku Tudou	Nasdaq: YOKU

DISCLOSURE: Kaminis is long SPY and short UUP. Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.