This Week: The Summer Swan Dive for Stocks Continues

This week, the summer swan dive should continue on low seasonal volume undermined by Fed expectations and geopolitical upheaval. The period offers a reminder of pending Fed tapering, with the FOMC meeting minutes release and the big Jackson Hole meeting. Egypt is burning and the world is starting to worry about it, with the EU and the UN having meetings on the topic this week. Two weeks ago, before this swan dive began, I penned my prescient summer sell-off warning in a weekly copy similar to this. This week, I’m telling you not to look for bounces too early; this sell-off will run for awhile.

Index ETF	Week Ending August 16	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-2.1%	+16.3%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	-2.1%	+15.2%
PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-1.3%	+15.9%

Last week, stocks posted another one of their worst weeks of the year and continued to chip away at paper profits on the year-to-date record. The broader indexes are illustrating how deep the capital flow shift runs. Year-to-date gains are being erased after having marked 20% profits before the downturn.

Economic Events

THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior	Expected
MONDAY
Regional Employment Figures Published
Egypt has Focus of EU Meeting
TUESDAY
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	-0.13
ICSC Weekly Store Sales	-0.2%
-Year-to-Year Pace	+2.6%
WEDNESDAY
Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes
Existing Home Sales	5.08 M	5.15 M
Mortgage Activity	-4.7%
EIA Petroleum Status
-Crude Oil Inventory	-2.8 M
-Gasoline Inventory	-1.2 M
ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting
Asian Development Bank Discusses Asia
THURSDAY
PMI Manufacturing (Flash) Index	53.2	53.5
FHFA House Price Index	+0.7%	+0.6%
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	-26.6
Weekly Jobless Claims	320K	329K
EIA Natural Gas Report	+65 Bcf
Leading Economic Indicators	0.0%	+0.5%
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index	6	5
Dallas Fed’s Richard Fisher Speaks
Jackson Hole Symposium
FRIDAY
New Home Sales	497K	487K
Fed’s Vice Chair Janet Yellen Speaks
UN Security Council Discusses Egypt

The Fed meeting minutes will garner a ton of attention this week, but the Jackson Hole Symposium will get more. It features Ben Bernanke’s potential replacement, Fed Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen and a slew of other notables. The market will be paying very close attention to the event, and you can be sure that the business media will feature it all week along.

The rest of the economic data flow includes the follow up to the best jobless claims figure in a long while. However, I’m warning followers of this column not to read too much into these mid-August data points, because not much happens in August, including layoff activity.

Shareholders of homebuilder stocks will want to see what the latest new and existing home sales reports offer this week, with the shares of the builders deeply lower since interest rates began rising. The FHFA House Price Index will also offer some insight into the pricing of homes given the changes in financing affordability.

There will be a decent amount of other important economic data, including the Leading Economic Indicators Index, which will offer some insight into where GDP goes from here. Several manufacturing and other business activity metrics will be released this week as well and offer reason to follow the news flow in between cocktails.

The week’s energy reports should garner special interest given the intensifying unrest and chaotic developments in Egypt. Civil war is breaking out, creating a very unstable geopolitical environment at the periphery of the oil producing Middle East. If issues in Syria and Egypt spread, energy prices will rise. This has now become well worth watching for energy market players.

Corporate Events

A slew of important retailers are still reporting results, including the housing suppliers in Home Depot and Lowe’s. This week we will also hear from newsy names like Best Buy and J.C. Penney, as well as Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, The Gap, L Brands, Nordstrom, Dollar Tree and more.

HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
Company	Ticker
MONDAY
America’s Car-Mart	Nasdaq: CRMT
Bob Evans Farms	Nasdaq: BOBE
Guess	NYSE: GES
International Rectifier	NYSE: IRF
Phoenix Companies	NYSE: PNX
Saks	NYSE: SKS
Urban Outfitters	Nasdaq: URBN
Vanguard Health Systems	NYSE: VHS
Zoom Technologies	Nasdaq: ZOOM
Raven Industries	Nasdaq: RAVN
TUESDAY
Barnes & Noble	NYSE: BKS
Best Buy	NYSE: BBY
BHP Billiton	NYSE: BHP
China Digital	NYSE: STV
Dick’s Sporting Goods	NYSE: DKS
Home Depot	NYSE: HD
Intuit	Nasdaq: INTU
J.C. Penney	NYSE: JCP
Medtronic	NYSE: MDT
TJX Companies	NYSE: TJX
WEDNESDAY
American Eagle Outfitters	NYSE: AEO
Charm Communications	Nasdaq: CHRM
Eaton Vance	NYSE: EV
Globe Specialty Metals	NYSE: GSM
Hewlett-Packard	NYSE: HPQ
J.M. Smucker	NYSE: SJM
L Brands	NYSE: LTD
Lowe’s	NYSE: LOW
PetSmart	Nasdaq: PETM
Target	NYSE: TGT
THURSDAY
Aeropostale	NYSE: ARO
Abercrombie & Fitch	NYSE: ANF
Aruba Networks	Nasdaq: ARUN
Dollar Tree	Nasdaq: DLTR
GameStop	NYSE: GME
The Gap	NYSE: GPS
Hormel Foods	NYSE: HRL
Marvell Technology	Nasdaq: MRVL
Nordson	Nasdaq: NDSN
Pandora Media	NYSE: P
FRIDAY
Ann Inc.	NYSE: ANN
Big Lots	NYSE: BIG
Foot Locker	NYSE: FL
Hibbett Sports	Nasdaq: HIBB
Linktone	Nasdaq: LTON
Sedona	Nasdaq: SDNA
Trimble Navigation	Nasdaq: TRMB
UniTek Global Services	Nasdaq: UNTK
Volt Information Sciences	Nasdaq: VISI
American Bio Medica	Nasdaq: ABMC

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