Out of Egypt - Wednesday's Market

It’s all about Egypt today, where streets full of protesters have led the Egyptian military to demand the stepping down of Islamist President Morsi. Morsi has refused to leave his legitimately earned position, but has offered some sort of concession for shared powers. With rumors building regarding the militarizing Muslim Brotherhood, the ouster of Morsi could bring about violence and unrest, and possibly the second civil war in the Middle East. That is the last thing we need now, with Syria already on fire and Iran about to catch fire with our help. Oil prices are surging today and stocks are falling globally. For more in-depth analysis and research visit our stock market blog.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Out of Egypt

Market ETF	July 3, 2013	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.1%	+12.9%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.3%	+14.1%
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)	-0.2%	+10.5%

In a shortened trading day ahead of the holiday, many portfolio managers and other investors are already on vacation. Thus, this is usually a slow trading day. The stock market closes at 1:00 PM ET.

Economic Events

ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
Economic Data Point	Prior Period	Expected	Actual
WEDNESDAY
ADP Private Employment	+134K (R)	+165K	+188K
Mortgage Activity	-3.0%	NA	-11.7%
Challenger Job-Cuts	36,398		39,372
Weekly Jobless Claims	348K (R)	345K	343K
International Trade (Deficit)	-$40.1 B (R)	-$40.8 B	-$45.0 B
-          Exports			-0.3%
-          Imports			+1.9%
ISM Non-Manufacturing	53.7	54.5	52.2
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	-28.3 (+1.1)	NA	-27.5 (+0.8)
EIA Petroleum Status	Crude Unch.	NA	-10.3 M
EIA Natural Gas Report	+95 Bcf	NA

  • R = Revised

Government reporters packed in the economic data today to make up for the Independence Day holiday tomorrow. As a result, Weekly Jobless Claims numbers were pushed forward nicely, complementing mild change in the monthly jobs reports reaching the wire today. First and foremost, the ADP Private Employment Report showed a private nonfarm payroll increase of a net 188K jobs. The result beat economists’ expectations for 165K and far surpassed the revised May result of 134K. The news certainly supported shares today, especially given a soft Challenger Job-Cuts number and favorable jobless claims data-point.

However, offsetting the positives of the labor data, we had service sector disappointment. The ISM Nonmanufacturing Index is a pretty important number, given that it measures some 90% of the American economy. The measure for June reflected slower economic expansion than in May, and so is concerning. The slowing pace was completely missed by economists, who were looking for an improvement; so that makes for a more important surprise than might otherwise be felt.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	9:29 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	-1.8%	NIKKEI 225	-0.3%
German DAX	-1.5%	Hang Seng	-2.5%
CAC 40	-1.5%	S&P/ASX 200	-1.9%
FTSE 100	-1.6%	Korean KOSPI	-1.6%
Greek ASE	-0.7%	BSE India SENSEX	-1.5%

Overseas trading is being driven today by unrest in the Middle East. Syria has been submerged in it for far too long, but now the oil rich and highly volatile region’s young democracy and largest nation in terms of population seems ready to fall too coup. With protesters on the streets, the Egyptian Army has demanded Egypt’s President Morsi step down or else. The Islamist leader is said to be backed by a militarizing Muslim Brotherhood, as the army meets with other politicians to prepare his predecessor. This is of utmost importance today and deserves the attention of investors globally.

Commodity Markets (8:54 AM ET)

WTI Crude	+1.9%
Brent Crude	+1.4%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-1.9%
RBOB Gasoline	+1.9%
Gold Spot	+0.5%
Silver Spot	+1.1%
COMEX Copper	+0.6%
CBOT Corn	+0.7%
CBOT Wheat	+1.4%
CBOT Soybeans	+1.0%
ICE Cocoa	+2.2%
ICE Sugar	-0.4%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+0.3%
CME Live Cattle	+0.1%

Oil is rightly moving higher today, not just on the turmoil in the Middle East, but also on the latest Petroleum Status Report, which showed crude oil inventory declined by 10.3 million barrels in the period ending June 28. Total motor gasoline inventory declined by 1.7 million barrels. Crude oil stocks are still above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. The iPath GSCI Crude Oil Index (NYSE: OIL) is higher by 2.4%.

It should not be long before investors remember why they hold gold, given rising geopolitical tensions and the unsteady hands behind fiat currency. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is up 1.0% this morning.

Corporate Events

REPORTING EARNINGS
Company	Ticker
WEDNESDAY
AutoNation	NYSE: AN
International Speedway	Nasdaq: ISCA
Rite Aid	NYSE: RAD
Bassett Furniture	Nasdaq: BSET

MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
BIGGEST GAINERS	% Gain
UniTek Global Services (Nasdaq: UNTK)	+44%
Orient Paper (NYSE: ONP)	+41%
Prana Biotechnology (Nasdaq: PRAN)	+16%
Glu Mobile (Nasdaq: GLUU)	+14%
ChyronHego (Nasdaq: CHYR)	+3%
Emulex (NYSE: ELX)	+15%
Universal Business Payment (Nasdaq: UBPS)	+12%
iPath Global Carbon (NYSE: GRN)	+11%
Manhattan Bridge Capital (Nasdaq: LOAN)	+5%
Edgen Group (NYSE: EDG)	+11%
BIGGEST LOSERS	% Drop
PrimeEnergy (Nasdaq: PNRG)	-14%
Linn Energy (Nasdaq: LINE)	-11%
VelocityShares 3X Inverse Brent (Nasdaq: DOIL)	-11%
USMD Holdings (Nasdaq: USMD)	-11%
Sport Chalet (Nasdaq: SPCHA)	-11%
UQM Technologies (NYSE: UQM)	-2%
Valley Financial (Nasdaq: VYFC)	-10%
Atlas Resource (NYSE: ARP)	-9%
Ambac Financial (Nasdaq: AMBCW)	-9%
Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE: MJN)	-8%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.