Settling on Uncertainty

Stocks are settling on uncertainty, and are more likely to move lower than higher over the next several months without a retracing of recent Fed missteps. That said, the degree of decline seems to have moderated as the information ages. Meanwhile, we have the same old questionable economic data to chew on, and it will now be viewed through gray colored glasses, versus the rosy red painted by Fed accommodation of the past. Continue reading our stock market blog post for details on the day’s economic & corporate news and international & commodity markets action.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Market ETF	June 28	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	-0.1%	+13.1%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.0%	+14.4%
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.4%	+9.8%

Markets are uncertain what to do today, but the big names are moving lower, with IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY) shaking things up. This is the final day of trading for June and Q2, and there will be a Russell rebalancing to spice things up as well. Expect the month and quarter’s losers to continue losing today as “window dressing” occurs across portfolios. Those likely to be losing today include Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), as no self respecting hedge fund manager wants his investors to know he has owned it recently. Some of the names being added late to portfolios might include Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA), since it has had a stellar quarter, makes a popular product and has an admirable leader.

Economic Events

Data Point	Prior Period	Expected	Actual
FRIDAY
Chicago PMI	58.7	55.0	51.6
U.M. Consumer Sentiment	82.7	83.0	84.1

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business showed deterioration in Midwest manufacturing. A severe and unexpected drop in sentiment of purchasing managers reflected the weather according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). ISM stated in the report that the volatility seen in the index over the last several months was atypical and hard to otherwise explain.

Well, let me give it a try… Maybe it has something to do with the abrupt shift in Fed policy, the unexpected bailing of the Federal Reserve on asset purchases at precisely the wrong moment, when the economy is deteriorating again and still vulnerable. Indeed, I think this explains the enthusiasm when managers thought Bernanke would clarify the Fed was remaining accommodative, but instead announced that tapering would begin this year and end next year. Interest rates surged on that news, and guess what, the sales of Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM), who oh by the way operate out of the Midwest, are dependent on cheap financing.

The University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment Index was released today at the same time for customers of the reporting institution and the rest of us. Fairness returns to the process, and robots and men are equal again, regarding the automated trading that was benefiting from playing on the few seconds preview big institutions had over the little guy. They’re still faster, but now they are at least starting at the same moment as us.

Regarding the sentiment increase for the end of June, it matches what we saw at the Conference Board measure earlier in the week. Unfortunately, like with the Conference Board measure, I expect this measure will fall off a cliff once 401K holders receive their statements after the close of June and see their retirement savings have taken a hit. The wealth effect matters greatly to consumers, and considering interest rates are ignoring Fed talk, which is cheap, I think you can count on a change next month.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	10:00 AM	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	-1.0%	NIKKEI 225	+3.5%
German DAX	-0.9%	Hang Seng	+1.8%
CAC 40	-0.9%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.2%
FTSE 100	-0.5%	Korean KOSPI	+1.6%
Greek ASE	+2.3%	BSE India SENSEX	+2.7%

Japanese housing starts surged 14.5% in May, so just as investors were starting to doubt “Abenomics,” data is starting to support it. The NIKKEI soared on the news today.

The EU said it would open to membership talks with Serbia, and it appears European investors do not feel quite ready yet to let another Balkan nation into the union, especially one so close to Greece. Ironically, Greece shares surged Friday, perhaps because it now has a chance to rise on the ladder of respect among its EU brothers and shed its ugly duckling persona, which was hard-earned over the last decade.

Commodity Markets (9:59 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.2%
Brent Crude	-0.1%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-0.5%
RBOB Gasoline	+0.6%
Gold Spot	-0.7%
Silver Spot	+1.4%
COMEX Copper	+0.3%
CBOT Corn	-1.1%
CBOT Wheat	-0.2%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.7%
ICE Cocoa	-0.4%
ICE Sugar	-0.2%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+1.6%
CME Live Cattle	-0.5%

Corporate Events

Company	Ticker
FRIDAY
AZZ Inc.	NYSE: AZZ
Finish Line	Nasdaq: FINL
Emmis Communications	Nasdaq: EMMS
Acadia Realty Trust	NYSE: AKR

Today’s biggest gainers and losers were:

BIGGEST GAINERS	% Gain
RNA (Nasdaq: RNA)	+39%
Emmis Comm (Nasdaq: EMMS)	+25%
India Globalization (NYSE: IGC)	+17%
Arkansas Best (Nasdaq: ABFS)	+15%
Richmont Mines (NYSE: RIC)	+9%
Pacific Sunwear (Nasdaq: PSUN)	+15%
Tanzanian Royalty (NYSE: TRX)	+9%
VelocityShares 3X Long Silver (Nasdaq: USLV)	+10%
Fortuna Silver Mines (NYSE: FSM)	+11%
Direxion Gold Miners Bull (Nasdaq: NUGT)	+9%
BIGGEST LOSERS	% Drop
Clean Diesel Technoloty (Nasdaq: CDTI)	-36%
Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY)	-27%
Owens Corning Series B Warrant (OC-WTB)	-19%
Direxion Gold Miners Bear (Nasdaq: DUST)	-11%
VelocityShares 3X Inverse Silver (Nasdaq: DSLV)	-11%
AZZ Inc. (NYSE: AZZ)	-14%
Accenture (NYSE: ACN)	-13%
LHC Group (Nasdaq: LHCG)	-13%
Gentiva Health (Nasdaq: GTIV)	-12%
United Security Bancshares (Nasdaq: USBI)	-12%

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.