Wall Street Greek: Dated Data Deceiving Investors Today

Stocks in great need of a breather are finding it where it no longer exists, in dated data being released today. A slew of economic reports measuring months past are putting supports under stocks today. Readers of this critical column should take heed of our advice to use strength to sell further, as a new paradigm has been set for stocks thanks to the Federal Reserve. That said, this nascent strength could continue with more data releases to come this week, so a measured process makes sense. For more in-depth analysis and research visit our stock market blog.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Sell Strength

Market ETF	June 25	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)	+0.5%	+10.9%
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)	+0.5%	+12.6%
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)	+0.2%	+7.3%

After a shedding of value, stocks are looking higher today on the back of several strong economic reports. However, as we warned in our weekly report entitled False Comfort in the Week Ahead, the data is measuring the past. The present is much different thanks to the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Economic Events

Data Point	Prior Period	Estimated	Actual
MONDAY
Chicago Fed Index	-0.52	-0.25	-0.30
Dallas Fed Index	-10.5	+0.0	+6.5
TUESDAY
Case Shiller Home Price Index	+1.1%	+1.5%	+2.5%
FHFA House Price Index	+1.5%	+1.2%	+0.7%
New Home Sales	466K	460K	476K
ICSC Store Sales	+0.3	NA	+1.1%
Durables Orders	+3.6%	+3.3%	+3.6%
Consumer Confidence	74.3	75.0	81.4
Richmond Fed Index	-2	+2	+8
Investor Confidence	94.8	NA

The New Home Sales and the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index surged in April, spurring life back into the shares of homebuilders today. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) is up 2.4% today, but I would use the strength to sell. Several homebuilders are also reporting earnings this week and could support a recovery this week in the shares. I would also use that strength to sell, because the effects of rising mortgage rates are not going to be seen in this data, which we should not forget represents the strength of the spring selling season.

Consumer Confidence, as reported by the Conference Board, climbed significantly past economists’ expectations this month. However, the latest volatility in the stock market will show up in the monthly reports of 401K portfolios after month’s end and change all that. Up until this point, the average passive investor has no idea what havoc is playing out with their personal wealth in June.

Durable Goods Orders are best measured ex-transportation, due to the high ticket prices of those goods. On that account, orders rose by a lesser degree, 0.7%, though that was still better than economists’ expectations for a decrease of 0.1%. The day was a good one for industrials, given the Richmond Fed measure surged well above economists’ expectations as well. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI) is up 0.7% and the shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE) are higher by 0.5%.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	9:33 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	+1.6%	NIKKEI 225	-0.7%
German DAX	+1.8%	Hang Seng	+0.2%
CAC 40	+1.6%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.3%
FTSE 100	+1.3%	Korean KOSPI	-1.0%
Greek ASE	+2.5%	BSE India SENSEX	+0.5%

Commodity Markets (9:22 AM ET)

WTI Crude	+0.5%
Brent Crude	+0.3%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-0.2%
RBOB Gasoline	+0.2%
Gold Spot	+0.2%
Silver Spot	+0.3%
COMEX Copper	+1.6%
CBOT Corn	-0.2%
CBOT Wheat	+0.5%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.3%
ICE Cocoa	-0.4%
ICE Sugar	+1.6%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-0.8%
CME Live Cattle	+0.2%

On hope of improved economic demand, given the latest data, economically sensitive commodities are edging higher to take back some of their recently lost ground.

Corporate Events

Companies Reporting EPS	Ticker
MONDAY
Elite Pharmaceuticals	Nasdaq: ELTP.OB
American Residential Properties	NYSE: ARPI
Sonic	Nasdaq: SONC
TUESDAY
Barnes & Noble	NYSE: BKS
Carnival	NYSE: CCL
Walgreen	NYSE: WAG
Lennar	NYSE: LEN
AeroVironment	Nasdaq: AVAV
SYNNEX	NYSE: SNX
Daegis	Nasdaq: DAEG
Apollo Group	Nasdaq: APOL
Smith & Wesson	Nasdaq: SWHC

Today’s biggest gainers and losers were:

BIGGEST GAINERS	% Gain	BIGGEST LOSERS	% Drop
CombiMatrix (Nasdaq: CBMX)	+42%	Demand Media (NYSE: DMD)	-21%
Oxford Resources (NYSE: OXF)	+30%	Mitek Systems (Nasdaq: MITK)	-18%
MeetMe (Nasdaq: MEET)	+17%	American Vanguard (NYSE: AVD)	-13%
American Spectrum (NYSE: AQQ)	+17%	Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS)	-12%
Ocean Power Tech (Nasdaq: OPTT)	+8%	ProPhase Labs (Nasdaq: PRPH)	-13%
Real Goods Solar (Nasdaq: RSOL)	+9%	Point 360 (Nasdaq: PTSX)	-13%
YRC Worldwide (Nasdaq: YRCW)	+14%	Sevcon (NYSE: SEV)	-9%
Alcobra (Nasdaq: ADHD)	+del%	Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO)	-9%
Fuwei Films (Nasdaq: FFHL)	+11%	C Tracks Exch. T Notes (Nasdaq: CVOL)	-8%
Asia Pac Wire Cable (Nasdaq: APWC)	+11%	TherapeuticsMD (Nasdaq: TXMD)	-8%

Other Reports for Your Review:
The Efficient Market has Spoken: This is a Mistake!

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.