Holding Our Own for Now

A weak report from the World Bank sent global shares lower today, especially in Asia. Also a surging Yen especially harmed Japanese shares again. Here in America, stocks have the benefit of a solid retail sales data point and improved jobless claims, so they are holding their own for now. The sexiest man alive could be Lloyd Blankfein today, as the Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) CEO speaks on regulation at a Politico event. It isn't J.P. Morgan's (NYSE: JPM) James Dimon, as JPM lays off another 1800 folks.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Market ETF	June 13	Year-to-Date
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)	-0.2%	+13.5%
SPDR Dow Jones (DIA)	-0.0%	+14.4%
PowerShares (QQQ)	-0.2%	+10.3%

Economic Events

The monthly Retail Sales Report for May was reported in the premarket. Sales rose 0.6%, month-to-month, against economists’ expectations for an increase of 0.5%; sales rose 0.1% in April. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales increased 0.3%, matching economists’ expectations. Though May’s sales gain was less than the 0.6% increase in April, it’s still reassuring for a market in need of good things. The SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) should see some benefit as a result.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45 AM ET), a weekly measure of the consumer mood, was unchanged last week, and remained at a mark of -29.7. The latest retail sales data was reassuring and is a point of measure that people trust regarding the mood of consumers, since they are putting their money where their mouths are. We’ll take a closer look at the report later today to see if there were any anomalies.

The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report for the period ending June 8 showed weekly claims fell by 12K, to 334K; the improvement came after last week’s improvement of 11K. The 4-week moving average for this data point improved by 7,250, to 345,250, showing more important evidence of a positive trend.

Import and Export Price data were released this morning for the month of May, and prices dropped more than expected. This is further evidence of deflation, which we suggested recently is a sign of economic illness. Export prices fell by 0.5%, against economists’ expectations for a 0.1% drop, and after falling by 0.7% in April. Import prices also fell by 0.6%, versus the revised 0.7% decrease seen the month before; economists were looking for no change here. Large changes in export prices are usually due to agricultural exports while changes in import pricing are typically petroleum related. Deflation is readily apparent here.

Business Inventories will be reported for April at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see inventories rising 0.3%, following their stagnant state in March. Investors will need to take a closer look at the report for insight into sales activity as well.

The National Governors Association publishes its Fiscal Survey of States today.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:42 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	-0.9%	NIKKEI 225	-6.3%
German DAX	-1.4%	Hang Seng	-2.2%
CAC 40	-0.6%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.6%
FTSE 100	-0.8%	Korean KOSPI	-1.4%
Greek ASE	+1.7%	BSE India SENSEX	-1.1%

The Yen surged on the dollar Thursday, to 94 per dollar, making Japanese companies less competitive globally and sending the NIKKEI 225 lower by another 6%. Many of Japan’s companies are well integrated multinationals though, and so both Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) and Sony (NYSE: SNE) are higher today.

The World Bank’s Global Economic Update also harmed stocks today, given its lowered expectations, though on less projected volatility.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses business leaders in Berlin just a couple days after the German Constitutional Court decision about ECB bond purchases.

Commodity Markets (8:33 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.5%
Brent Crude	-0.3%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-0.9%
RBOB Gasoline	+0.1%
Gold Spot	-0.6%
Silver Spot	-0.2%
COMEX Copper	-0.5%
CBOT Corn	-0.2%
CBOT Wheat	-0.3%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.4%
ICE Cocoa	-2.3%
ICE Sugar	-0.0%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-0.1%
CME Live Cattle	+0.1%

Commodity prices are mostly lower today, which is a sign of dollar strength. So, while the Yen is gaining ground on the dollar, the greenback is still holding its ground against global currencies generally. That might have something to do with ongoing global concerns expressed today in the World Bank’s Global Economic Update.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending May 31 showed working gas in storage increased by 111 Bcf. Stocks were 616 Bcf less than last year at this time and 69 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.

Corporate Events

The corporate wire has a Clearwire (Nasdaq: CLWR) shareholders meeting to consider competing takeover offers from Dish Network (Nasdaq: DISH) and Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S). Eastman Kodak seeks bankruptcy court approval to allow its creditors to vote on a restructuring plan. Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) holds its annual shareholder meeting. The Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference brings presentations by Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) and PVH (NYSE: PVH). The William Blair Growth Conference offers the presentation of C.H. Robinson Worldwide (Nasdaq: CHRW). The Deutsche Bank Global Industrials and Basic Materials Conference highlights the presentation of Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC).

Look for earnings from ALCO Stores (Nasdaq: ALCS), Capstone Turbine (Nasdaq: CPST), Cherokee (Nasdaq: CHKE), Oculus Innovative Sciences (Nasdaq: OCLS), Rentrak (Nasdaq: RENT), Restoration Hardware (NYSE: RH), Synutra International (Nasdaq: SYUT) and VisionChina Media (Nasdaq: VISN).

Today’s biggest gainers and losers:

BIGGEST GAINERS	% Gain	BIGGEST LOSERS	% Drop
Gannett (NYSE: GCI)	+28%	Stratus (Nasdaq: STRS)	-24%
Belo (NYSE: BLC)	+27%	Two Harbors Wt (NYSE: TWO-WT)	-25%
Pingtan Marine (NYSE: PME)	+27%	SGOCO Group (Nasdaq: SGOC)	-11%
Safeway (NYSE: SWY)	+17%	Ecotality (Nasdaq: ECTY)	-2%
UniTek Global (Nasdaq: UNTK)	+24%	Hemisphere Media (Nasdaq: HMTV)	-10%
Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD)	+14%	Sigma Designs (Nasdaq: SIGM)	-4%
LIN TV (NYSE: TVL)	+11%	UQM Technologies (NYSE: UQM)	-4%
First PacTrust (Nasdaq: BANC)	+10%	Cornerstone Therapeutics (CRTX)	-6%
PVH (NYSE: PVH)	+10%	Vestin Realty (Nasdaq: VRTA)	-8%
Celsion (Nasdaq: CLSN)	+6%	Tower Semi (Nasdaq: TSEM)	-7%

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