This Week’s Seminal Event

This week is all about the Fed folks, and so we authored two separate pieces specifically about the topic for your review. See An Economic Shocker is in the Cards this Week and The Fed Better Fix this Mess this Week. The week also offers a good bit of economic data, which we’ve outlined here for you, and a very short list of important earnings reports. Come see us at the Wall Street Greek blog for daily data analysis and review of seminal events like these.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Seminal Event

Monday

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. Last month, the General Business Conditions Index fell by more than 4 points, to an index mark of minus 1.43. It reflected the manufacturing malaise that has plagued the nation over recent months, showing up in too many data points to be anomalous. This month, economists see the index edging higher to 0.5, or just into expansion territory.

The National Association of Homebuiders’ (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is due at 10:00 AM ET. This measure of the mood of homebuilders can be skewed by its inclusion of great numbers of smaller independent builders. In today’s market, where the large well-capitalized publicly traded builders have gobbled up market share from bankrupt and troubled smaller players, two very separate sets of opinions exist about the market. Economists are looking for a slight improvement in the HMI for June, to 45, from 44 in May. Readings above 50 indicate a mostly positive perspective of the housing market, and so you can see the issue for smaller builders has a voice here.

President Obama will sit down with Russia’s Vladimir Putin at the G-8 Summit in Northern Ireland. Given recent revelations by U.S. authorities that Syria has employed chemical weapons against its own populace, and Russia’s delivery of weapons to Syria’s President Assad, this should get interesting. Things are developing quickly, with Iran planning to send Assad a force of 4,000 troops and Saudi Arabia planning to ship missiles to those fighting Assad.

The corporate wire has the Annual Investor Day of Centene (NYSE: CNC). Nestle S.A. (NESN.VX) is having its Rural Development Conference Call. W.R. Grace (NYSE: GRA) is defending its Chapter 11 restructuring in the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. The earnings schedule includes Korn Ferry International (NYSE: KFY) and Motorcar Parts of America (Nasdaq: MPAA).

Tuesday

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting begins Tuesday and ends with hoopla Wednesday afternoon, including new economic forecasts from the Fed, and a press conference by the Chairman.

Following the recent reporting of the PPI, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due today at 8:30 AM ET. Economists see this measure of inflation higher by 0.2% in May. When excluding volatile food and energy prices, the Core CPI is expected to have grown at a 0.2% pace as well, up slightly from the 0.1% increase of the prior month.

The regular weekly retail same-store sales report of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is on tap for Tuesday. Last week’s report covering the period ending June 8 showed a week-to-week sales decrease of 2.7%, following the 1.9% increase of the week before. The result was likely impacted by Memorial Day weekend. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 2.2%, versus the 4.3% increase of the prior week.

Housing Starts will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. This report covers new residential construction starts and also offers information on new permit issuance for construction. In this report for May, economists expect the annual pace of housing starts increased to 955K, from 853K in April. The economists’ consensus for permit issuance stands at 973K, which would be down from the prior month’s pace of 1.017 million.

President Obama visits German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin, as he works on the damage caused by news about the NSA spying.

The Bank of Israel is having a party to send off Governor Stanley Fischer; Mario Draghi will be in attendance for an accompanying conference, and so market moving news could result.

The corporate wire has the investor or analyst meetings of BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), FelCor Lodging (NYSE: FCH), Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). The Jefferies Global Consumer Conference presents Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS), Staples (Nasdaq: SPLS), Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF). The Wells Fargo Health Care Conference offers presentations by Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) and Agilent (NYSE: A). Look for earnings from Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE), China Cord Blood (NYSE: CO), FactSet (NYSE: FDS) and La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB). CommunicAsia, a huge mobile communications and broadcasting event, kicks off.

Wednesday

It’s Fed day, with the FOMC Monetary Policy Statement due for report at 2:00 PM ET. Given recent talk of tapering, the market will be on edge for any information to either clear up concern or exacerbate it. The Fed will also make its quarterly update to its economic forecasts, including estimates for GDP, employment and inflation. The monetary policy release and economic forecasts will be followed by a press conference by Chairman Bernanke.

After several weeks of high profile mortgage rate rise and a coinciding drop-off in mortgage application activity, the latest mortgage activity data arrives from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Last week’s report covering the period ending June 7 showed mortgage applications increased, but my report entitled, Sell Real Estate Securities as False Hope Built Today on Imperfect Data, showed that the Memorial Day holiday weekend likely perverted the result. I’m looking for a decrease this week.

The regular Petroleum Status Report is due at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending June 7 showed crude oil inventory increased by 2.5 million barrels, and remained above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventory increased by 2.7 million barrels and rose to above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

The corporate wire has Wharton’s “leadership conference,” with participants including CEOs from Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). EADS (Nasdaq: EADSY.PK) is hosting a breakfast meeting with investors in Paris, at the Paris Air Show of course. Flower Foods (NYSE: FLO) is splitting 3-for-2. PTC Therapeutics is expected to price 6.9 million shares at $13 to $16 per in its offering. The Wells Fargo Health Care Conference offers the presentations of Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) and Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (Nasdaq: MDRX). The Jefferies Global Consumer Conference presents Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO). Look for earnings from Actuant (NYSE: ATU), China Hydroelectric (NYSE: CHC), ChinaEdu (Nasdaq: CEDU), Cinedigm Digital Cinema (Nasdaq: CIDM), CLARCOR (NYSE: CLC), Crown Crafts (Nasdaq: CRWS), FedEx (NYSE: FDX), Finisar (Nasdaq: FNSR), Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL), Micron Technology (NYSE: MU), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) and Steelcase (NYSE: SCS).

Thursday

Investors will be tuned into the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report Thursday, due at 8:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the period ending June 8 showed weekly claims fell by 12K, to 334K. Economists see claims rising to 340K this week. The 4-week moving average decreased by 7,250 last week, to 345,250.

The Conference Board will publish its monthly Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see this forward looking economic measure marking 0.2% improvement in May, which is a slower pace than April’s 0.6% increase.

The PMI Manufacturing Index flash reading is up at 8:58 AM ET. Economists expect the index to improve to 52.7 in mid-June, after its final May reading of 52.3, which was up from mid-May’s 51.9.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Business Outlook Survey measures the regional manufacturing mood. The report for the month of June is expected to show index improvement to a mark still representing economic contraction at -1.0, up from -5.2 in May.

When Existing Home Sales data is reported for the month of May at 10:00 AM Monday, economists expect it will show the annual pace of sales at 5.0 million. It would mark a slight increase from April’s pace of 4.97 million.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, a weekly measure of the consumer mood, deteriorated last week by 1.6 points, falling to a mark of -31.3. Consumers are not generally in a good mood today in my opinion, though some measures offer contrasting information.

The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending June 7 showed working gas in storage increased by 95 Bcf. Stocks were 587 Bcf less than last year at this time and 58 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.

The House Ways and Means Committee is having a hearing on the status of the Medicare program, as stated in the 2013 Medicare Trustees report.

Euro-zone finance ministers are in Luxemburg discussing the financial crisis. Russia is hosting an International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. Markets in Argentina are closed today. The Swiss National Bank issues its latest monetary policy.

The corporate wire has the annual meetings of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), PVH (NYSE: PVH) and ARIAD Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ARIA). Eastman Kodak is seeking bankruptcy court approval for its $2.8 billion U.K. pension plan settlement. In-flight Internet service Gogo is pricing 11 million shares at $15 to $17. MillerCoors (NYSE: TAP) is having its divisional investor seminar in London. The earnings schedule has news from American Software (Nasdaq: AMSWA), Kroger (NYSE: KR), Methode Electronics (NYSE: MEI), Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) and TIBCO Software (Nasdaq: TIBX).

Friday

The Economic and Financial Affairs Council is meeting in Brussels today.

The corporate wire has the earnings of Carmax (NYSE: KMX) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI). Softbank (OTC: SFTBY.PK) has its annual meeting scheduled. Former Enron CEO Jeff Skilling might have his prison sentence reduced to 14 years.

See also our daily market previews and our regular economic and stock analysis from our expert founder.

You might also enjoy some of our recent work including:

GE Threatened by Seminal Event this Week

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