Week Ahead: Enter the Tiger

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Week Ahead

The shortened week ahead is sure to continue the soap opera in Europe, while Asia takes a break to usher in the Year of the Tiger. In the States, we will receive Leading Indicators, Consumer and Producer Prices, Treasury International Capital, Import & Export Prices and manufacturing reports from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve outlets. The week ahead may be shortened, but it is certainly not going to be short of excitement.

Monday

Financial markets were closed in the United States Monday due to the Presidents Day holiday. Markets were also shuttered in China, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and Korea as Asian cultures usher in the Year of the Tiger.

There is no rest for the weary, as euro-zone finance ministers gathered to work on a more detailed rescue plan for Greece. Last week only produced a vague show of support, as infighting between the European brothers left the countries uncommitted on any specifics. The ministers asked Greece Monday to prepare further deficit reduction measures for presentation to the European Commission on March 16, in case it fails to make progress. Ministers are still debating in private regarding what they might do to save Greece from default if need be. However, news of Greece's use of SWAPS, with the help of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), to possibly hide the degree of its debt burden has some Europeans threatening the ouster of brother Greece.

Of geopolitical note, Israel's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, met with Russian leaders Monday. Gee, I wonder what they might be talking about... The Mobile World Congress kicked off in Barcelona Monday, and the day's earnings included only two names in the US, Chemed (NYSE: CHE) and Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW).

Tuesday

The International Council of Shopping Centers pushes its weekly reporting of same-store sales ahead a day, to Wednesday, due to the holiday.

The New York Federal Reserve will publish its Empire State Manufacturing Survey Tuesday morning at 8:30. At last check in January, the index had recovered ground lost the month before. January's reading of 15.9 on the General Business Conditions Index marked an 11 point improvement. New Orders (index) and Shipments posted similar increases in January, while Unfilled Orders moved above zero. Even the Employment Index moved into positive territory, while the outlook for the coming six months was for improvement. Based on Bloomberg's survey, economists see improvement in the General Business Conditions Index in February, to 18.0.

The manufacturing sector has shown significant improvement over recent months, but we can attribute much of the gains to inventory restocking. We do not expect this driver to sustain the economy forever, but we do expect purchasing managers to remain somewhat optimistic in February.

The Department of the Treasury will report on Treasury International Capital (TIC) for the month of December at 9:00 a.m. November's data showed an oversized net inflow of funds into long-term US securities of $126.8 billion. The previous three months showed inflows of $36.4 billion, $41.2 billion and $19.3 billion. Private foreign investors were making most of the investments, with $96.0 billion of the sum originating from the foreign private sector. As the months come to pass, we expect to see evidence of even more net benefit to US securities due to developments in Europe.

At 12:45, look for Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota's speech to the Minnesota Bankers Association. Kansas City Fed Boss, Thomas Hoenig is scheduled to speak as well; the topic of Mr. Hoenig's discussion will be "Avoiding a Government Debt Crisis."

At 1:00 p.m., look for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to report its Housing Market Index for the month of February. Builders' sentiment has remained mostly pessimistic through early general economic recovery. January's HMI was marked at 15, down from 16 in December.

Several large hedge funds will disclose their major fourth quarter trades on Tuesday. Also, monthly credit card defaults are due for report.

Tuesday's EPS reports include Aaron's (NYSE: AAN), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), American Medical Systems (Nasdaq: AMMD), Arch Capital Group (Nasdaq: ACGL), Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS), Capella Education (Nasdaq: CPLA), Fiat S.p.A. (OTC: FIADF.PK), Flagstone Reinsurance (NYSE: FSR), FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI), Fossil (Nasdaq: FOSL), Hatteras Financial (NYSE: HTS), Healthways (Nasdaq: HWAY), InnerWorkings (Nasdaq: INWK), Innospec (Nasdaq: IOSP), Jarden (NYSE: JAH), LECG Corp. (Nasdaq: XPRT), Meadowbrook Insurance Group (NYSE: MIG), Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK), Montpelier Re (NYSE: MRH), Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR), Neutral Tandem (Nasdaq: TNDM), OTIX Global (Nasdaq: OTIX), Photronics (Nasdaq: PLAB), Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q), Ramco-Gershenson Properties (NYSE: RPT), Teva Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: TEVA), The PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Tucows (AMEX: TCX), Ultra Clean Holdings (Nasdaq: UCTT), Valmont Industries (NYSE: VMI), Valspar (NYSE: VAL), Waste Management (NYSE: WM), Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFMI), Winn-Dixie Stores (Nasdaq: WINN) and Zix Corp. (Nasdaq: ZIXI).

Wednesday

January's Housing Starts are due for reporting Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m. The First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit played havoc with Pending Home Sales and Housing Starts reports through fall. In December, the annual pace of Housing Starts was reported to be 557K, down 4.0% from November's revised pace of 580K. Starts were still 0.2% higher than the prior year period though.

Building Permits increased 10.9% in December, to 653K. This, and the extension and expansion of the tax credit imply better Housing Starts data over the next couple months. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for an increase in Starts activity, to an annual pace of 580K for January.

Import and Export Prices are due to be reported for the month of January at 8:30 a.m. December produced a rise in non-fuel import prices (+0.4%) that was hidden by a decline in fuel pricing (-1.4%). Non-fuel import prices have risen 0.4% in each of the last five months. Non-fuel import prices were up 0.4% for the whole of 2009 as well. Fuel imports saw a 61.4% increase in 2009, contrasting against the 47% drop the year before.

Export Prices increased 0.6% in December, after rising 0.9% in November. Agricultural goods prices surged 2.0% in December, while non-ag goods pricing advanced 0.5%.

Industrial Production is scheduled for 9:15 reporting. December's data showed gains in productivity and capacity utilization. Production improved 0.6% in both November and December. Capacity Utilization improved to 72% in December, up from 71.5% in November. While productivity generally improved, it fell again in construction, which lost another 2%. Economists forecast productivity will rise by 0.8% in January, while they see capacity utilization gaining to 72.6%.

The ICSC reports Weekly Same-Store Sales in the pre-market on Wednesday. Last week's report, covering the operating week of 2/6, showed sales gained 1.4% from the prior week's count and gained 1.8% against the prior year's tally.

At 2:00 p.m., the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes from January's gathering. Also at 2:00, look for the Treasury Budget for January. December's budget deficit of $91.9 billion was the largest on record for the month. Looking ahead, January's budget usually posts a surplus. Over the last five years, the surplus has dwindled though, to $0.4 billion on average. A deficit is likely for this past December, and economists are forecasting one of huge proportion (-$46 billion).

Based on a report last week, mortgage application activity eased in the week ending February 5. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Market Composite Index shed 1.2%, on a 7.0% decrease in Purchase activity. The Refinance Index gained 1.4%, as 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.94 percent from 5.01 percent the week before.

Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) has its analysts' day. The EPS schedule includes Acergy (Nasdaq: ACGY), Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP), Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), BNP Paribus (Paris: BNP.PA), Brushed Engineered Materials (NYSE: BW), Calumet Specialty (Nasdaq: CLMT), Career Education (Nasdaq: CECO), Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), Cimarex Energy (NYSE: XEC), Commercial Vehicle Group (Nasdaq: CVGI), Community Health Systems (NYSE: CYH), Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE), Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), Donegal Group (Nasdaq: DGICA), Endurance Specialty Holding (NYSE: ENH), ExpressJet Holdings (NYSE: XJT), Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE: FRT), Fundtech Corp. (Nasdaq: FNDT), Genzyme (Nasdaq: GENZ), Glimcher Realty Trust (NYSE: GRT), Guidance Software (Nasdaq: GUID), Health Grades (Nasdaq: HGRD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Host Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HST), IAMGOLD (NYSE: IAM), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Investors Title (Nasdaq: ITIC), iRobot (Nasdaq: IRBT), Itron (Nasdaq: ITRI), Ituran Location & Control (Nasdaq: ITRN), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC), Kite Realty Group (NYSE: KRG), Koppers Holdings (NYSE: KOP), Martha Stewart Living (NYSE: MSO), NCI, Inc. (Nasdaq: NCIT), NetApp (Nasdaq: NTAP), Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX), NICE Systems (Nasdaq: NICE), O’Reilly Automotive (Nasdaq: ORLY), Oceaneering International (NYSE: OII), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), Otelco (Nasdaq: OTT), Owens Corning (NYSE: OC), Platinum Underwriters Holdings (NYSE: PTP), Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN), Rimage Corp. (Nasdaq: RIMG), Rockwood Holdings (NYSE: ROC), Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI), Sinclair Broadcast Group (Nasdaq: SBGI), Skechers (NYSE: SKX), Sovran Self Storage (NYSE: SSS) and Vital Images (Nasdaq: VTAL).

Thursday

The Producer Price Index keys the news wire on Thursday morning. Headline PPI increased 0.2% in December, while Core PPI saw no change. Looking ahead to January, economists forecast a 0.8% increase in the Headline figure on the month's increase in petroleum prices. Also, there is concern that freezing Florida temperatures pressured produce from the state. Core PPI is forecast to gain 0.1% in January.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due at their usual 8:30 report. In the week ended February 6, initial jobless claims dropped by 43K, to 440K. Economists do not typically stray very far from prior week data on this regular point. Thus, they forecast this last week's tally of benefits filers also at 440K.

Leading Economic Indicators will be reported for the month of January at 10:00 a.m. After a 1.1% gain in LEI in December, economists see a smaller 0.5% gain in January. The Fed continues to play a big role in the LEI improvement, due to the low level of bank borrowing costs it has established. The spread between the overnight bank lending rate and 10-year Treasury Yield provides the lift. While I can agree with this data forecast for January, I worry about February and the next few months ahead.

A few days after the New York Fed's manufacturing data, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reports its survey of manufacturing. The Philly Fed's General Business Conditions Index is seen improving to 17.0 in February, from 15.2 in January. Still, there have been signs of a slowing recovery, as the new orders index slipped two months in a row; the index moved from 13.1 in November to 8.3 in December and to 3.2 in January.

Because of the holiday, the EIA will report both its Petroleum Status Report and its Natural Gas Inventory on Thursday. Natural gas data will come due at 10:30. Working gas in storage decreased by 191 Bcf in the period ending February 5. Gas stocks stood only 114 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year. Petroleum inventory will be reported at 11:00 a.m. Crude oil stores increased by 2.4 million barrels in the latest period.

Overseas, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep rates steady when it announces monetary policy again. President Obama is scheduled to meet with the Dalai Lama Thursday, defying Chinese pleas to cancel the meeting. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will address a group at 9:00 a.m.

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is hopeful a hearing on its settlement with authors works out favorably. ADP (NYSE: ADP) will meet with analysts, and look for earnings reports from ABB, Inc. (NYSE: ABB), Akzo Nobel (OTC: AKZOF.PK), Ameren (NYSE: AEE), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Arbitron (NYSE: ARB), AuthenTec (Nasdaq: AUTH), Avista (NYSE: AVA), AXA SA (OTC: AXAHF.PK), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Build A Bear Workshop (NYSE: BBW), Cabela's (NYSE: CAB), California Pizza Kitchen (Nasdaq: CPKI), CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS), Clearwater Paper (NYSE: CLW), CryoLife (NYSE: CRY), Daimler (NYSE: DAI), Developers Diversified Realty (NYSE: DDR), Eclipsys (Nasdaq: ECLP), Gen-Probe (Nasdaq: GPRO), Harleysville Group (Nasdaq: HGIC), Hittite Microwave (Nasdaq: HITT), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL), Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM), j2 Global Communications (Nasdaq: JCOM), K-Swiss (Nasdaq: KSWS), Key Energy Services (NYSE: KEG), Life Time Fitness (NYSE: LTM), Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL), Marchex (Nasdaq: MCHX), Morningstar (Nasdaq: MORN), Nanometrics (Nasdaq: NANO), Newpark Resources (NYSE: NR), NEXEN (NYSE: NXY), Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL), Occam Networks (Nasdaq: OCNW), OGE Energy (NYSE: OGE), Penn West Energy Trust (NYSE: PWE), PGT, Inc. (Nasdaq: PGTI), Pool Corp. (Nasdaq: POOL), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), PSE&G (NYSE: PEG), Reed Elsevier (NYSE: RUK), Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS), School Specialty (Nasdaq: SCHS), State Auto Financial (Nasdaq: STFC), Stewart Information Services (NYSE: STC), Swift Energy (NYSE: SFY), TC Pipelines (Nasdaq: TCLP), The Nasdaq OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Universal American (NYSE: UAM), Validus Holdings (NYSE: VR), VASCO Data Security (Nasdaq: VDSI), VCA Antech (Nasdaq: WOOF), Vectren (NYSE: VVC), Ventas (NYSE: VTR), Veraz Networks (Nasdaq: VRAZ), Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT), Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (NYSE: WRE), WellCare Health Plans (NYSE: WCG), Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB), Williams Partners (NYSE: WPZ) and Windstream (Nasdaq: WIN).

Friday

Friday's key story will certainly be about the Consumer Price Index. Data for the month of January comes due for release by 8:30 a.m. Both Headline and Core CPI increased by 0.1% in December. The cost of shelter eased in December, muting modest increases in food and energy prices. Economists forecast a 0.3% Headline CPI rise in January and 0.1% increase when excluding food and energy prices.

Mexico's central bank is expected to keep rates steady. Nuclear energy executives are set to brief analysts at a New York City event. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) sits before a judge, as he rules on the settlement between BofA and the SEC with regard to its acquisition of Merrill Lynch.

Friday's corporate earnings schedule includes news from AMERIGROUP (NYSE: AGP), Brady Corp. (NYSE: BRC), Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM), Bucyrus International (Nasdaq: BUCY), Carrefour (OTC: CRERF.PK), Grupo Aeroportuario (NYSE: ASR), HMS Holdings (Nasdaq: HMSY), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), LIN TV (NYSE: TVL), PG&E (NYSE: PCG), Pinnacle West Capital (NYSE: PNW) and Trustco Bank (Nasdaq: TRST).


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