Iran News 02-11-10

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Iran News

Iran news maker Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has done it again. On the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution that brought Iran's Theocratic Republic to power, the President of Iran declared the country a nuclear nation... again. Iran's President Ahmadinejad ritualistically uses the annual celebration to declare the latest news of Iran's nuclear gains, which in turn fires up Iranian nationalism and intensifies friction with the opposing west.

This time around, Iran leaked its news ahead of time. A few days ago, Iran declared that the nation's scientists had enriched uranium to the 20% mark. The effort was reportedly displayed to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Uranium enriched to 20% has medical uses, but the west worries Iran has greater ambitions. Iran's President Ahmadinejad raised western concerns when he announced that Iran had the capability to enrich uranium above 80%, taking it dangerously close to adequacy for the production of nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad went on to qualify his statement, saying that Iran had no plans to do so, nor to make nuclear weapons, as it did not "believe in it." US Press Secretary Robert Gibbs stated that America does not believe Iran's news, that it does not likely have the capability it claims. Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad claims Iran will now triple its production.

I listened to President Ahmadinejad's speech, and at times I wondered if I was listening to the president of a nation of 70 million or to an uneducated, maybe slightly disturbed, conspiracy theorist I might cross paths with just about anywhere in New York City. Or, perhaps, I was listening to the well prepared propaganda of an oppressive regime, whose population is kept in the dark and led along in this manner. He went back and forth with complicated, almost technical discussion, that the masses could not possibly understand. It was as if I was in a cafe speaking with an old friend, who didn't know what he was talking about, but was trying to be smart. He delved into the rules of the nonproliferation agreement, and he spoke of US representatives as if they were childish and uncalculated. It was downright scary, and it only reaffirms my own belief that the nation this man and the Supreme Leader rule should never have nuclear weapons.

Iranian opposition forces found the revolution celebration an opportunity to rally as well. However, the Iranian government was well-prepared and stopped with force the advancement of several opposition leaders toward Tehran's Azadi Square. There were also apparently movements toward the detention center where Iran is holding arrested protestors. Unconfirmed reports from the opposition said Mirhossein Mousavi's wife, Dr. Zahra Rahnavard, was beaten by plain clothed agents with batons. Also, opposition candidate Mehdi Karoubi and former president Mohammad Khatami, were reportedly attacked. According to sources, Karoubi's son Ali was arrested, while Karoubi himself suffered burns to the face from tear gas.

Time is clearly running out for Iran, but also for Iran's opposition movement. The US and its allies are preparing a new set of sanctions, some of which have been already approved by the US Congress; there are other bills still working there way through, as referred to by Senator McCain and others on Thursday. What's really interesting is that even Russia declared that recent developments show Iran has other intentions for its nuclear program than it has stated publicly. That's a change in tone from Russia, which has yet to deliver the high-tech anti-missile system it agreed to provide Iran. Of course, since then, the savvy Israelis negotiated an arms deal with Russia as well, perhaps paying a little extra for the delay of equipment to Iran. China, however, remains a wild card, and could veto any UN resolution, OR perhaps protect its own interests in Iran to a lengthier extent than anyone expects. Perhaps China or Russia, or something either has done, is the very reason for Iran's high level of confidence, if it's not blind bravado. The Asian giant appears to be weighing the situation carefully, remaining silent for now. It is certainly not happy with the United States these days; not following an arms sale it made to Taiwan.

Yesterday, Ahmadinejad reportedly told Syria's President Assad that Israel should be resisted and finished off should it renew military operations in the region. Iran has quietly put together an alliance of smaller nations around the globe, which it calls the "non-aligned." The conviction of small nations to stand in alliance with Iran with more than words is likely feeble. Still, Iran's defiant speak is anything but soothing to Israel, which has been preparing for an assault on Iran for years now. Recently, Syria announced publicly that Israel had been regularly violating Lebanese airspace. We assert that this is likely part of intensified reconnaissance, as Israel prepares an assault on Iran. Israel anticipates uprisings from Lebanon, and perhaps Hamas and Syria, should it engage Iran. Thus, it should be expected to raise the intensity of its observation effort ahead of any engagement. Israel has already practiced bombing runs and prepared its citizenry for the possibility of a missile fall on Israel proper.

However, Israel and the west are hopeful that tougher sanctions will help the Iranian opposition effort and inspire a new revolution in Iran, establishing a new government in the process that might have a better chance at peace with the west. It seems very likely this political pressure will be tested first, and given a chance, before eventual engagement later this year.

The Day's Business Summary

EU Supports Greece

The top business story of the day came on a highly anticipated but rather vague show of support from the European Union. Similarly to Pennsylvania's famed groundhog, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso emerged from their hole in Brussels only to state that Europe stood by ready to assist Greece if need be. It was a show of support without substance that destroyed some more value in the euro by the close ($1.3685USD/EUR). Greek shares actually held steady on the day, having already priced in disaster. The Athens Composite Share Index eased just 0.03%. However, Spain, which today reported quarter-over-quarter economic contraction of 0.1% for its fourth quarter, found no assurances in the EU's soft stance. Spain's IBEX 35 Index fell 1.66% on the day, as the country watches for a blade to the back from Standard & Poors or other credit rating agencies. Spain's debt levels are significantly lower than Greece though, and so it might be spared.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Just a week after running up to 483K (revised from 480K), weekly initial jobless claims softened slightly to 440K. The economists' consensus, which is often off with regard to this data-point, forecast claims would tally 467K. Let's face it, 440K new unemployment claims filers, while lower than the prior week, is not something to base a job market inflection point call on... and it certainly isn't something to invest on.

The four-week moving average, which allows for a better assessment of trend, eased by just 1,000, to 468,500 claims. Also, the insured unemployment rate stuck at 3.5%. If you are one of those people who see the glass half full (are there any of you left?), you might say that at least the weekly figure backed up a bit.

Looking for a job? Well then you might be interested in this:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Jan. 23 were in Alaska (7.5 percent), Oregon (6.7), Idaho (6.5), Wisconsin (6.4), Puerto Rico (6.3), Montana (6.2), Pennsylvania (6.2), Nevada (5.9), Michigan (5.8), and Rhode Island (5.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Jan. 30 were in Pennsylvania (+10,495), Illinois (+3,062), North Carolina (+2,868), Georgia (+2,803), and Missouri (+2,677), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-1,819), Kansas (-1,600), Connecticut (-1,282), Virginia (-1,227), and Puerto Rico (-911).

Corporate Earnings Drivers

The day's earnings reports came from Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A), Akeena Solar (Nasdaq: AKNS), Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), Alcon (NYSE: ACL), AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB), Allied World Assurance (NYSE: AWH), AP Capital (Nasdaq: ACAP), Asia Pacific Breweries (OTC: APBRF.PK), AutoNation (NYSE: AN), Beckman Coulter (NYSE: BEC), BorgWarner (NYSE: BWA), Cephalon (Nasdaq: CEPH), CH Energy (NYSE: CHG), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), Cincinnati Bell (NYSE: CBB), Cognex (Nasdaq: CGNX), Coinstar (Nasdaq: CSTR), Command Security (NYSE: MOC), Compellent Technologies (NYSE: CML), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), DaVita (NYSE: DVA), DCT Industrial Trust (NYSE: DCT), Delphi Financial Group (NYSE: DFG), Diageo Plc (LSE: DGE.L), DRDGold (Nasdaq: DROOY), Duoyuan Printing (NYSE: DYP), Eastern Insurance (Nasdaq: EIHI), EnCana (NYSE: ECA), Epicor Software (Nasdaq: EPIC), Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE), EZchip Semiconductor (Nasdaq: EZCH), FBL Financial (NYSE: FFG), Flir Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), Geeknet (Nasdaq: LNUX), General Cable (NYSE: BGC), Group 1 Automotive (NYSE: GPI), Hanger Orthopedic (NYSE: HGR), Hawaiian Electric (NYSE: HE), Holly Energy (NYSE: HEP), Hornbeck Offshore Services (NYSE: HOS), Infinity Property & Casualty (Nasdaq: IPCC), Inland Real Estate (NYSE: IRC), iPass (Nasdaq: IPAS), JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO), Jacada (Nasdaq: JCDA), Journal Communications (NYSE: JRN), Laboratory Corp. (NYSE: LH), Lufkin (Nasdaq: LUFK), Macerich (NYSE: MAC), Mack-Cali Realty (NYSE: CLI), Manulife Financial (NYSE: MFC), Marriott International (NYSE: MAR), Maxwell Technologies (Nasdaq: MXWL), McAfee Inc. (NYSE: MFE), Media Sciences Int'l (Nasdaq: MSII), Merge Healthcare (Nasdaq: MRGE), Microtune (Nasdaq: TUNE), Molina Healthcare (NYSE: MOH), Natural Resource Partners (NYSE: NRP), NV Energy (NYSE: NVE), Panera Bread (Nasdaq: PNRA), Patni Computer Systems (NYSE: PTI), Patterson-UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Pepsico (NYSE: PEP), Philip Morris (NYSE: PM), Portugal Telecom (OTC: PTGXF.PK), Progress Energy (NYSE: PGN), ProLogis (NYSE: PLD), PROS Holdings (NYSE: PRO), RealNetworks (Nasdaq: RNWK), Realty Income Corp. (NYSE: O), Republic Services (NYSE: RSG), Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP), Rovi Corp. (Nasdaq: ROVI), SCANA Corp. (NYSE: SCG), Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN), SonicWALL (Nasdaq: SNWL), SonoSite (Nasdaq: SONO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Strayer Education (Nasdaq: STRA), Sun Life Financial (NYSE: SLF), Symyx Technologies (Nasdaq: SMMX), Syneron Medical (Nasdaq: ELOS), Syniverse Technologies (NYSE: SVR), Tekelec (Nasdaq: TKLC), Telecom Corp. of New Zealand (NYSE: NZT), Telecomunicacoes de Sao Paulo S.A. (NYSE: TSP), Teradata (NYSE: TDC), The Cheesecake Factory (Nasdaq: CAKE), TreeHouse Foods (NYSE: THS), United Stationers (Nasdaq: USTR), VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Vision-Sciences (Nasdaq: VSCI) and World Wrestling Entertainment (NYSE: WWE). Also interesting article for investors in Nasdaq: GULF, Nasdaq: TRAMX, Nasdaq: TRIAX, NYSE: ISL, Nasdaq: XISLX, NYSE: NOC, NYSE: RTN, NYSE: ATK, NYSE: LMT, NYSE: BA.


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