Today's Coffee: Life After Iowa
(Stocks in article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: JEF, NYSE: CS, Nasdaq: CNET, Nasdaq: CELG, NYSE: KKD, NYSE: SNE, Nasdaq: MSFT)
On this economic data empty start to the week, the market is looking to the positive as it contemplates future Fed action against economic recession. And, rightly so... Folks, lets try this again, it's time to buy! No really this time it is... I was early on my recession call, and now as the market tanks realizing recession is upon us, I'm telling you rally time is approaching. The Fed will react.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me... Will the Fed fool me again, but this time on the other end of the bet? I've given up on listening to Bernanke's tough talk, and have finally realized he's a spineless jellyfish, or "the tool of the market," according to a good trader friend of mine. The man may be intelligent, but he's a leader by influence and consensus. He'll do whatever the market, the president, the FOMC members and maybe even the media tell him to. So, keep the pressure on him folks and maybe squeeze a nice 50 point cut out of him to get rates down low enough to help these mortgage tortured Americans to escape their captivity. Yes, we need more excess to escape yesterday's excess. Perhaps we should even resurrect Greenspan.
Presidential Race
We may have to label time before last week's Iowa Caucus BI, and time after as AI. The election picture looks quite different than it did Before Iowa. Obama looks to be building momentum on an increasingly distressed Hillary, who thought she could win on name alone. Boy did she get a slap in the face with Obama's newly found momentum. Finally, she's actually speaking.
Regarding the Republicans, I've been enlightened by media to the fact that Thompson's support will likely find McCain, not Romney, when Fred pulls out of the primary. Apparently, the two are friends. Remember, I speculated otherwise. In retrospect, I also wonder where Ron Paul's support will go, since the other major candidates look to differ on the subject of Iraq. I expect Paul's support could be late in coming, and he may end up running as independent even. If he does throw his weight around, it might find Romney, and certainly shouldn't find McCain or Guiliani since they are very Bushish regarding the geopolitical scene. Huckabee and Romney are also strong defense guys, but Huckabee differs greatly with Paul on his straight line constitutionalism; Paul matches well with Romney's free market capitalism characteristic.
After taking a closer look at Huckabee, I've come to realize that he's an idealist with perhaps naive solutions for major problems. His "Fair Tax" proposal (sales tax over income tax) might seem nice on surface, but it would require major cultural change to accomplish and would also threaten to generate black market trading of goods and services. Maybe it would work, but there's no silver bullet in it. I admire his idealism and his will to work on things for improvement, but I think there is clear value to be added by choosing Romney over him. Regarding McCain, I believe he just would not have a chance against the Democrats.
Obama looks to me like another idealist that I fear could impact the economy like Carter did. I admire idealism, and Carter, but we have to elect the best manager for our country. Where else are you going to hear a Republican say he admires Jimmy Carter? We don't judge people here by their party. Character defines a man, and we have no right to judge at all.
I also admire Edwards' passion and the common man drive he has, but fear the damage that could be done here as well. If I were a loyal Democrat, I would support Clinton; as an independent thinking Republican, I see Romney as the best choice to lead this country. He appears the best option for the fiscal future of America, as well as for the moral values leadership by example, and in terms of his intelligence and understanding of issues and best solutions for them. As as a God fearing man, I am pro-life. On that issue, like Romney, life experiences have led me to change views. We cannot hold changed views that come on improved knowledge against someone. In fact, it's yet another reason to admire Romney; he's willing to admit to being wrong, and changing views rather than sticking to something because of the risk of being criticized by John McCain for it. That's if he's changed views for other than political purpose.
That's my opinion though, and you are entitled to yours. Please express them as comments to this article. I'm open to learning and debate, but keep your comments free from emotion and blank party loyalties. This election is as important as any of the past, and is a major factor for the future of the economy, stocks and America, so we must discuss it. We must understand the options as best we can before making our choices. Please, do your best to tell me why I'm wrong, and who I should support and why. First and foremost, we are all the same; secondly, for those readers who are American, we are that before being Democrat or Republican.
Mike Bloomberg is in Oklahoma meeting with fellow independents. The rumor is that he'll run if he thinks he can win. Which candidate matches best with you? Are you sure you know the answer to this? A local NY TV channel is offering this program (top right of the landing page), where you answer a few questions and are supposedly matched with the best candidate for you. I am not sure if this is scientific enough, but it's fun anyway and might help you understand candidate positions better.
Energy & Geopolitics
Remember we told you that Bush would find a way to wage war on Iran, or Israel would. Iran engaged in a suspect action over the weekend that could have opened that door. Iran engaged U.S. vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in what appears to have been a mission to ascertain how the U.S. would respond to certain actions. Fast boats approached U.S. ships and reportedly issued warning over radio. The U.S. Navy was about to send them to their watery grave at the bottom of the sea when the ships turned away. The Iranian boats dropped some white boxes into the water, and some speculate it might have been an attempt to ascertain future U.S. response to such actions.
Iranian natural gas exports to Turkey have been cut off, however, this has occurred as a result of gas cuts from Turkmenistan. Apparently Turkmenistan stated gas supplies have been reduced due to maintenance, however, they have come during a broad winter snow storm in Iran and at the same time as a price dispute. In other words, it looks like a crooked attempt to get more for its gas from Iran. This should not impact natural gas pricing in the U.S. since Nat Gas remains a regionally localized commodity, for the most part, and North American supplies remain adequate.
Oil prices are tanking further today on economic concern. The economy is the main driver for pricing, and as we have stated in the past, should be the factor to cause oil to decline significantly now.
Stock Specific News
Tech stocks are not generally benefiting from the start of the Consumer Electronics Show, but we expect the group to see broad benefit over the course of the show. Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) is benefiting this morning from the keynote speech of its iconic leader, Bill Gates. Bill is scheduled to hand over day to day control of operations later this year.
On this economic data empty start to the week, the market is looking to the positive as it contemplates future Fed action against economic recession. And, rightly so... Folks, lets try this again, it's time to buy! No really this time it is... I was early on my recession call, and now as the market tanks realizing recession is upon us, I'm telling you rally time is approaching. The Fed will react.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me... Will the Fed fool me again, but this time on the other end of the bet? I've given up on listening to Bernanke's tough talk, and have finally realized he's a spineless jellyfish, or "the tool of the market," according to a good trader friend of mine. The man may be intelligent, but he's a leader by influence and consensus. He'll do whatever the market, the president, the FOMC members and maybe even the media tell him to. So, keep the pressure on him folks and maybe squeeze a nice 50 point cut out of him to get rates down low enough to help these mortgage tortured Americans to escape their captivity. Yes, we need more excess to escape yesterday's excess. Perhaps we should even resurrect Greenspan.
Presidential Race
We may have to label time before last week's Iowa Caucus BI, and time after as AI. The election picture looks quite different than it did Before Iowa. Obama looks to be building momentum on an increasingly distressed Hillary, who thought she could win on name alone. Boy did she get a slap in the face with Obama's newly found momentum. Finally, she's actually speaking.
Regarding the Republicans, I've been enlightened by media to the fact that Thompson's support will likely find McCain, not Romney, when Fred pulls out of the primary. Apparently, the two are friends. Remember, I speculated otherwise. In retrospect, I also wonder where Ron Paul's support will go, since the other major candidates look to differ on the subject of Iraq. I expect Paul's support could be late in coming, and he may end up running as independent even. If he does throw his weight around, it might find Romney, and certainly shouldn't find McCain or Guiliani since they are very Bushish regarding the geopolitical scene. Huckabee and Romney are also strong defense guys, but Huckabee differs greatly with Paul on his straight line constitutionalism; Paul matches well with Romney's free market capitalism characteristic.
After taking a closer look at Huckabee, I've come to realize that he's an idealist with perhaps naive solutions for major problems. His "Fair Tax" proposal (sales tax over income tax) might seem nice on surface, but it would require major cultural change to accomplish and would also threaten to generate black market trading of goods and services. Maybe it would work, but there's no silver bullet in it. I admire his idealism and his will to work on things for improvement, but I think there is clear value to be added by choosing Romney over him. Regarding McCain, I believe he just would not have a chance against the Democrats.
Obama looks to me like another idealist that I fear could impact the economy like Carter did. I admire idealism, and Carter, but we have to elect the best manager for our country. Where else are you going to hear a Republican say he admires Jimmy Carter? We don't judge people here by their party. Character defines a man, and we have no right to judge at all.
I also admire Edwards' passion and the common man drive he has, but fear the damage that could be done here as well. If I were a loyal Democrat, I would support Clinton; as an independent thinking Republican, I see Romney as the best choice to lead this country. He appears the best option for the fiscal future of America, as well as for the moral values leadership by example, and in terms of his intelligence and understanding of issues and best solutions for them. As as a God fearing man, I am pro-life. On that issue, like Romney, life experiences have led me to change views. We cannot hold changed views that come on improved knowledge against someone. In fact, it's yet another reason to admire Romney; he's willing to admit to being wrong, and changing views rather than sticking to something because of the risk of being criticized by John McCain for it. That's if he's changed views for other than political purpose.
That's my opinion though, and you are entitled to yours. Please express them as comments to this article. I'm open to learning and debate, but keep your comments free from emotion and blank party loyalties. This election is as important as any of the past, and is a major factor for the future of the economy, stocks and America, so we must discuss it. We must understand the options as best we can before making our choices. Please, do your best to tell me why I'm wrong, and who I should support and why. First and foremost, we are all the same; secondly, for those readers who are American, we are that before being Democrat or Republican.
Mike Bloomberg is in Oklahoma meeting with fellow independents. The rumor is that he'll run if he thinks he can win. Which candidate matches best with you? Are you sure you know the answer to this? A local NY TV channel is offering this program (top right of the landing page), where you answer a few questions and are supposedly matched with the best candidate for you. I am not sure if this is scientific enough, but it's fun anyway and might help you understand candidate positions better.
Energy & Geopolitics
Remember we told you that Bush would find a way to wage war on Iran, or Israel would. Iran engaged in a suspect action over the weekend that could have opened that door. Iran engaged U.S. vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in what appears to have been a mission to ascertain how the U.S. would respond to certain actions. Fast boats approached U.S. ships and reportedly issued warning over radio. The U.S. Navy was about to send them to their watery grave at the bottom of the sea when the ships turned away. The Iranian boats dropped some white boxes into the water, and some speculate it might have been an attempt to ascertain future U.S. response to such actions.
Iranian natural gas exports to Turkey have been cut off, however, this has occurred as a result of gas cuts from Turkmenistan. Apparently Turkmenistan stated gas supplies have been reduced due to maintenance, however, they have come during a broad winter snow storm in Iran and at the same time as a price dispute. In other words, it looks like a crooked attempt to get more for its gas from Iran. This should not impact natural gas pricing in the U.S. since Nat Gas remains a regionally localized commodity, for the most part, and North American supplies remain adequate.
Oil prices are tanking further today on economic concern. The economy is the main driver for pricing, and as we have stated in the past, should be the factor to cause oil to decline significantly now.
Stock Specific News
Tech stocks are not generally benefiting from the start of the Consumer Electronics Show, but we expect the group to see broad benefit over the course of the show. Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) is benefiting this morning from the keynote speech of its iconic leader, Bill Gates. Bill is scheduled to hand over day to day control of operations later this year.
Market-Moving News
- CNN Money: Asian Market
- MarketWatch: Europe Mixed
- Financial Times: Clinton Scrambles to Rescue Campaign
- TheStreet.com: Consumer Electronics Show
- AP/Yahoo!: Bill Gates Sees Windows Everywhere!
- Platts: Crude Futures Ease Slightly on Economic Concern
- Platts: Iran Cuts Off Gas to Turkey
- Reuters: Iran Provokes U.S. Navy
- SeekingAlpha: Basis for Long Dated Oil Futures
- Bloomberg: European Business Confidence Drops Off
- Bloomberg: Dollar Advances in Employment Data Aftermath
- AP/Yahoo!: Japan's Domestic Auto Sales Low
- Yahoo! Earnings Calendar
- CNBC: Jefferies (NYSE: JEF) Forecasts Quarterly Loss
- AP/Yahoo!: Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD) CEO Resigns
- MarketWatch: CNET Networks (Nasdaq: CNET) Buyout Taking Shape
- AP/Yahoo!: Sony (NYSE: SNE) Sells 1.2 Mln. PS3 Machines Over Holidays
- CNBC: Writedown Rumors at Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS)
- Yahoo!: Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) Offers Outlook
- Economist: The Geopolitical Week Ahead
- BBC: Georgian President Reelected
- Iran Daily: Tales from the Dark Side
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posted by The Greek | 11:59 AM
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