Morning Coffee: Employment Data Overload
(Stocks in this article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: STT, NYSE: TTM, NYSE: F, NYSE: MER, NYSE: C, NYSE: MON, Nasdaq: NFLX, Nasdaq: CYMI, NYSE: BX, Nasdaq: MNST)
Strap yourself into your electric chair, drink a triple espresso and take a look at all the employment data released this morning. Your brain should explode in a matter of minutes. If not, then head over to Iowa because you would make the perfect president for the chaotic term ahead.
We had four, count em, four employment data releases this morning. This area of economic study seems to be the most popular, and hey, maybe The Greek should start his own employment index. We could survey breakfast bar loners at Greek diners stretching from NYC to Vineland, New Jersey. Heck, we would at least get some free coffee out of it!
Monster Employment Index
Monster Worldwide (Nasdaq: MNST) surveys online job search resources, which are now more significant than print ads, in order to get a gauge on the job market. December seasonality was evident in its current report, but Monster noted some ominous trends viewed independent of the period. The most notable areas of weakness, including an area The Greek has been pointing toward, included retail sales.
The retail trade industry dropped 20 points, as Monster speculates that light holiday shopping is driving caution among retail store operators. Clearly, the period we enter now is when retailers regularly unload the extra workforce required to survive the holidays. We continue to expect retailers to go a step further soon enough and begin consolidating poor performing locations, and thus reducing workforce.
The financial sector was another area of weakness, and things don't look to improve any time soon as two of the largest employers in the sector, Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) prepare imminent mass pink slip delivery. That said, the index is not much different this December than it was last year. The labor market is just starting to soften now.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job-Cut Report
We happened to catch a representative of Challenger this morning on CNBC, and almost got sick as a result. The statement the gentleman made was just that disgusting to me. He said that based on Challenger's readings, which have shown light relative layoffs all year long, the economic situation was overblown. He indicated that his metric was a forward indicator, and that the mess in housing and lending would not spread to the remainder of the economy as a result.
Ha! Another case of a man lost in his box! So, according to this gentleman, who clearly is doing relatively well in his own bubble of a life and close-knit group of friends (and perhaps no access to media of any sort), everything is okay folks. You can go out and spend, and you can still borrow relatively easily too, according to this genius. Gasoline near $3, no problem! You can pump tap water into your car and it'll still go. Who knew!?! Anyway, money is not real; you can pay for your costly groceries with gravel from your backyard. How silly of us to miss this possibility. If this number is compiled by men like this guy, I have no use for it. No comment on the figure!
ADP Private Employment Report
ADP showed nonfarm private employment increased 40K in December. That's a light number, no matter how you paint it. I heard another pundit applaud the figure, saying it's good because it's positive. In other words, it could be worse. That's like saying the Eagles season was a success because they finished well, despite missing the playoffs. Anything under 100K on tomorrow's Labor Department measure indicates increasing unemployment. The ADP number seems to indicate tomorrow's news should not be too dramatic, but it would not be the first time ADP and the Employment Situation data differed.
Meanwhile the three-month rate eased just slightly to 118K, and that's still healthy. It takes time for reality to sink in, but when it does, it sinks in quickly. A tough earnings environment evident in regular quarterly aggregate corporate earnings misses should force executives into position to take action. They have, as small employers have been the driving force behind job addition; large employers have shareholders to please. However, a recent reading of small business confidence showed Joe, LLC has started to notice business slowing. The American consumer is more important to the small business than he is the large, and the small business is less likely to see international sales benefit. You see where I am going with this...
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
Weekly initial unemployment claims measured 336K, down from the week before. So what! Come on, who fires anybody on Christmas Eve? To take this figure as positive news would be ridiculously narrowminded. Because unemployment didn't break another tenth of a point last time around, and considering the weekly rising trend in new claims we've noticed, it's possible tomorrow's rate could jump two tenths, to as high as 4.9%. We see the consensus expectation for 4.8% very likely, and 4.9% would be a big surprise to the media and the market, though it is not highly improbable.
Petroleum Status
The crude oil draw this week exceeded consensus significantly, but oil backtracked from near $100. This should say something to you. Oil is extended, despite the weekly draws. If the economy is slowing, and if (big if) America is not going to confront Iran, and neither is Israel (bigger if), then there is not enough reason for oil to climb much higher now. Nor is their bid support much higher. However, oil climbed $3 in short time to get to where it is now, and Pakistan is a bullet away from taking oil to $125.
Strap yourself into your electric chair, drink a triple espresso and take a look at all the employment data released this morning. Your brain should explode in a matter of minutes. If not, then head over to Iowa because you would make the perfect president for the chaotic term ahead.
We had four, count em, four employment data releases this morning. This area of economic study seems to be the most popular, and hey, maybe The Greek should start his own employment index. We could survey breakfast bar loners at Greek diners stretching from NYC to Vineland, New Jersey. Heck, we would at least get some free coffee out of it!
Monster Employment Index
Monster Worldwide (Nasdaq: MNST) surveys online job search resources, which are now more significant than print ads, in order to get a gauge on the job market. December seasonality was evident in its current report, but Monster noted some ominous trends viewed independent of the period. The most notable areas of weakness, including an area The Greek has been pointing toward, included retail sales.
The retail trade industry dropped 20 points, as Monster speculates that light holiday shopping is driving caution among retail store operators. Clearly, the period we enter now is when retailers regularly unload the extra workforce required to survive the holidays. We continue to expect retailers to go a step further soon enough and begin consolidating poor performing locations, and thus reducing workforce.
The financial sector was another area of weakness, and things don't look to improve any time soon as two of the largest employers in the sector, Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) prepare imminent mass pink slip delivery. That said, the index is not much different this December than it was last year. The labor market is just starting to soften now.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job-Cut Report
We happened to catch a representative of Challenger this morning on CNBC, and almost got sick as a result. The statement the gentleman made was just that disgusting to me. He said that based on Challenger's readings, which have shown light relative layoffs all year long, the economic situation was overblown. He indicated that his metric was a forward indicator, and that the mess in housing and lending would not spread to the remainder of the economy as a result.
Ha! Another case of a man lost in his box! So, according to this gentleman, who clearly is doing relatively well in his own bubble of a life and close-knit group of friends (and perhaps no access to media of any sort), everything is okay folks. You can go out and spend, and you can still borrow relatively easily too, according to this genius. Gasoline near $3, no problem! You can pump tap water into your car and it'll still go. Who knew!?! Anyway, money is not real; you can pay for your costly groceries with gravel from your backyard. How silly of us to miss this possibility. If this number is compiled by men like this guy, I have no use for it. No comment on the figure!
ADP Private Employment Report
ADP showed nonfarm private employment increased 40K in December. That's a light number, no matter how you paint it. I heard another pundit applaud the figure, saying it's good because it's positive. In other words, it could be worse. That's like saying the Eagles season was a success because they finished well, despite missing the playoffs. Anything under 100K on tomorrow's Labor Department measure indicates increasing unemployment. The ADP number seems to indicate tomorrow's news should not be too dramatic, but it would not be the first time ADP and the Employment Situation data differed.
Meanwhile the three-month rate eased just slightly to 118K, and that's still healthy. It takes time for reality to sink in, but when it does, it sinks in quickly. A tough earnings environment evident in regular quarterly aggregate corporate earnings misses should force executives into position to take action. They have, as small employers have been the driving force behind job addition; large employers have shareholders to please. However, a recent reading of small business confidence showed Joe, LLC has started to notice business slowing. The American consumer is more important to the small business than he is the large, and the small business is less likely to see international sales benefit. You see where I am going with this...
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
Weekly initial unemployment claims measured 336K, down from the week before. So what! Come on, who fires anybody on Christmas Eve? To take this figure as positive news would be ridiculously narrowminded. Because unemployment didn't break another tenth of a point last time around, and considering the weekly rising trend in new claims we've noticed, it's possible tomorrow's rate could jump two tenths, to as high as 4.9%. We see the consensus expectation for 4.8% very likely, and 4.9% would be a big surprise to the media and the market, though it is not highly improbable.
Petroleum Status
The crude oil draw this week exceeded consensus significantly, but oil backtracked from near $100. This should say something to you. Oil is extended, despite the weekly draws. If the economy is slowing, and if (big if) America is not going to confront Iran, and neither is Israel (bigger if), then there is not enough reason for oil to climb much higher now. Nor is their bid support much higher. However, oil climbed $3 in short time to get to where it is now, and Pakistan is a bullet away from taking oil to $125.
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posted by The Greek | 11:01 AM
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