Morning Coffee: Goldilocks is a Hooker

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In another prescient call yesterday we said, "Because unemployment didn't break another tenth of a point last time around, and considering the weekly rising trend in new claims we've noticed, it's possible tomorrow's rate could jump two tenths, to as high as 4.9%. We see the consensus expectation for 4.8% very likely, and 4.9% would be a big surprise to the media and the market, though it is not highly improbable." Today, the unemployment rate was reported up three tenths of a point in one month's time, to 5.0%. The market was caught off guard, but Wall Street Greek readers were prepared.

Employment Situation Report December

Nonfarm payrolls only increased by 18,000 jobs, and The Greek is sick and tired of hearing Larry Kudlow's whining voice talking about Goldilocks! I was a fan of the show, but now I just find it annoying with the same old pundits exclaiming the same old nonsense. Come on Larry, American's aren't stupid! Tell it to the guy in Detroit who is having to take early retirement, or has otherwise lost his job and home because of American companies selling out to communist China for the sake of capitalism.

Let me ask you something... What happens when China flexes its muscles and takes open positions against American values and goals? What happens when China does something nasty? We've sold our soul to China. How are we going to adjust to the loss of manufacturing assets if we end up in an important counter position to China? Free market capitalism is wonderful as long as you are dealing with free market trading partners. There is a thing called country risk, and it's becoming widely apparent in Pakistan, Kenya, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, Turkey, Thailand, etc. I dare Larry Kudlow, and I note, my fellow Republican, to answer this question and bring me on to debate it.

Nonfarm payroll growth at 18K is not representative of a Goldilocks economy. I think Larry is perhaps mixing his Goldilocks with goldschlager. Come on Larry, America is not that stupid! We saw right through Henry Paulson's administration loyal cheerleading, and recognized mortgage lending was in trouble. Hank is now walking the straight line, and is regaining America's respect. We want truth, not cheerleading. We want prescient forecasts, not consensus bandwagon riding!

Nonfarm payrolls only increased 18K and unemployment increased three tenths to 5.0%, on the express train to recession. The unemployment rate was 4.4% at this time last year. Goldilocks just lost her job and is selling her body on the corner of Wall and Broad!

Retail trade lost jobs in December, and it looks like The Greek is going to unfortunately be right on his retail consolidation forecast. Macy's (NYSE: M) got things going a week or so ago, and today Talbots (NYSE: TLB) declared it would close some 78 stores. You're on top of this trend because you read The Greek, or you read The Greek because we agree.

Construction and manufacturing jobs continue to be lost as firms have already gone through their illegal employees and are now laying off Americans too. We should see an interesting trend soon, Mexicans emigrating back home after having difficulty finding jobs. God bless Mexicans, and we enjoy watching the national soccer team upset world powers, but the industries that have supported migration are going to consolidate now, including the restaurant industry.

I want to head off hate mail accusing me of being anti-immigrant or Mexican by telling you that my own father worked in restaurants and in construction as a Greek immigrant. That brave man, however, wanted to be American so badly that he even offered to fight for our country in Korea for the honor. He's lived here ever since, and pays taxes, and considers America his country, not a place to squeeze money out of temporarily.

Iowa

First, congratulations to Huckabee and Obama for their victories. While I continue to see Romney as the Republican nominee, I view Huckabee someone I would be proud to call my president. America could use a God fearing man like him in office, and perhaps one who places priority in preserving values, and who might lead the world to embrace America rather than the opposite. I know what you're thinking. Bush was suppose to be God fearing...

Don't some people say you should love your enemy, because if you only love your friends, what reward is there in that? Perhaps there is a better way to win Iran's partnership in the world community. I know one thing though, avoidance and ignorance to Iran's direction will not serve us well either. It has to be active effort, but non-threatening.

Unfortunately, we cannot control the decisions of others, and in the end force may be the only way to preserve safety for our family's futures. But all effort should be put forth to find other resolution, more than just words. A leap of faith has to occur, a crossing of a bridge, a building of one where one may not exist. Forgiving past ills, and looking forward to a better world. Idealism perhaps, but it's worth the effort.

We believe a critical next event will present when we learn who Thompson and McCain send their backers too in the weeks ahead, and who they migrate to on their own. It seems likely McCain's supporters will go to Guiliani, or maybe Huckabee, and Romney might win Thompson's.

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