The troubles of Greece and Europe make for terrifying television indeed, and the horrible effects to real human life
over there is difficult to bear. Yet, for many Americans, the effects to mortgage rates have been a Godsend. A flight to safety over the last week has driven U.S. Treasury demand, leading yields lower. As a result, mortgage rates have reached their lowest point in the history of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
Weekly Application Survey. The MBA is already reporting a response in refinancing activity, which stands to benefit aggressive bankers, while lowering the cost of living for many Americans.
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.
Relative tickers include Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), PHH Corp. (NYSE: PHH), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC) and BB&T (NYSE: BBT).
Americans Find Mortgage Refinancing Opportunity
In the week ending May 11, 2011, the MBA’s Market Composite Index of mortgage application volume increased 9.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Behind the rise was a 13% drive higher in refinancing activity, as mortgage rates dipped into record territory across the spectrum of loan types.
Each loan type marked record territory and saw
effective rate decrease, except for FHA sponsored loans, which saw an effective rate rise. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.96 percent, from 4.01 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) decreased to 4.20 percent, from 4.29 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.75 percent, from 3.81 percent. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.26 percent, from 3.29 percent.
Over the last six months, mortgage refinancing has increased by 50% on the
Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), driven by Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB). The program was designed to assist homeowners in refinancing their mortgages even if they owe more money than the home’s current value. Something like a third of all refinancing applications have been HARP driven lately. However, over the last week, the MBA reports the HARP share of refinances fell to 28%, from 30%, as conventional refinancing increased 14% on the week versus the 4% increase of HARP driven activity. This is the direct result of the drop in mortgage rates.
The nation’s most important mortgage originators in 2011 ranked Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Ally, PHH Corp. (NYSE: PHH), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), Quicken, Flagstar Bancorp (NYSE: FBC) and BB&T (NYSE: BBT). Perhaps helped by today’s MBA news, the shares of the top four were up between 1% and 2%.
Still, purchase activity, or mortgage applications filed for the purchase of a home, decreased 4.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis last week. While refinancing is booming, the housing market remains sickly, and I just
suggested homebuilder shareholders take profits on Tuesday’s builder confidence inspired climb higher for stocks including Toll Brothers, Ryland Group and others.
While it’s a shame that the driver of the day’s helpful mortgage activity is the direct result of the strife of others overseas, Americans might help themselves now by lowering their cost of living. Considering the
economic situation I see developing, it’s all the more a good idea.
Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), CIT (NYSE: CIT), Bank United (NYSE: BKU), First Citizens (OTC: FCNCA.PK), Synovus (NYSE: SNV), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Hampton Roads Bankshares (Nasdaq: HMPR), WesBanco (Nasdaq: WSBC), City Holding (Nasdaq: CHCO), Sandy Spring (Nasdaq: SASR), First Citizens (OTC: FCBN.OB), SCBT Financial (Nasdaq: SCBT), Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL), WSFS Financial (Nasdaq: WSFS), Southside Bancshares (Nasdaq: SBSI), Stellar One (Nasdaq: STEL), Union First Market (Nasdaq: UBSH), Eagle Bancorp (Nasdaq: EGBN), First Bancorp (Nasdaq: FBNC), Ameris (Nasdaq: ABCB), The Bancorp (Nasdaq: TBBK), First Community (Nasdaq: FCBC), Capital City (Nasdaq: CCBG), Financial Institutions (Nasdaq: FISI), National Bankshares (Nasdaq: NKSH), Citizens & Northern (Nasdaq: CZNC), Charter Financial (Nasdaq: CHFN), Seacoast Banking (Nasdaq: SBCF), TIB Financial (Nasdaq: TIBB), American National (Nasdaq: AMNB), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBI), Middleburg Financial (Nasdaq: MBRG), Heritage Financial (Nasdaq: HBOS), Zions Bancorp (Nasdaq: ZION), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), City National (NYSE: CYN), Bank of Hawaii (NYSE: BOH), SVB Financial (Nasdaq: SIVB), Westamerica (Nasdaq: WABC), Cathay General (Nasdaq: CATY), Umpqua (Nasdaq: UMPQ), Glacier Bancorp (Nasdaq: GBCI), Pacific Capital (Nasdaq: PCBC), PacWest (Nasdaq: PACW), Western Alliance (NYSE: WAL), First National Alaska (OTC: FBAK.OB), First Interstate Bancsystem (Nasdaq: FIBK), Nara (Nasdaq: NARA), West Coast (Nasdaq: WCBO), TriCo (Nasdaq: TCBK), Territorial (Nasdaq: TBNK), Washington Banking (Nasdaq: WCBO), Bank of Marin (Nasdaq: BMRC), Hanmi (Nasdaq: HAFC), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), MB Financial (Nasdaq: MBFI), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), First Niagra (Nasdaq: FNFG), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Investor’s Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Northwest Bankshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Provident (NYSE: PFS), Colombia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Kearny (Nasdaq: KRNY), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Danvers (Nasdaq: DNBK).
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and also the mortgage security malfunction at the hands of Wall Street and the rating agencies, these latest algorithmic errors are likely to bring down the hammer of Capitol Hill once again. So, I would avoid Knight’s shares rather than imagine value where it is not.
