The Trading Day

GREEK FACTOR: MODERATELY POSITIVE

Stock futures had already turned green before the jobs report, after overseas markets reacted to the 4.3% decline in the Dow marked on Thursday. When the Employment Report hit the wire, it offered relief more than anything else, as the numbers were generally better than expected, with the usual caveats and questions. Despite the declines in indexes overseas, I see global stresses generally eased Friday, and given the deep decline coming into the day, we have assigned a moderately positive Greek Factor to the American trading morning. As the day progresses, the absolute values of the jobs data and reminders of recently weaker economic data should undermine investor confidence heading into the weekend. Whether that drives a green day into the red is uncertain here.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

The Trading Day

Employment Situation Report

Greek Factor: Positive

Relative to expectations, July’s Employment Situation Report was mostly positive, however, on an absolute basis, the figures remain deeply depressing. Given that the market has given up so much ground through the week, this report seems to lend to stabilization, if not buying.

Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 117K in July, better than the 75K tally of expectations taken by Bloomberg. Private payrolls also rose better than expected, increasing by 154K, against expectations for 108K. The private sector figure exceeded the high end of the economists’ range in fact, which was set at 150K. The market should also be enthused Friday by positive revisions to June’s payroll data. June payrolls were revised to +46K, up from the initially reported +18K. June’s private payrolls were ratcheted up to 80K from the 57K initially reported.

The Unemployment Rate improved in July to 9.1%, from June’s 9.2%. The result was within the range of expectations, but beat the consensus set at 9.2%. This is another positive data-point, except for skepticism around the result, given the labor participation rate fell. In the end, market enthusiasm may fizzle as the absolute values are understood as still weak enough given recently softer economic data that could lead to deterioration in labor.

We’ll have a more detailed analysis of the ESR in a follow up article.

Monster Employment Index

Greek Factor: Neutral

Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW) published its Monster Employment Index (MEI) this morning for the month of July. The MEI is a measure of online job demand, and so, as should have been expected, it indicated a deteriorated situation last month. The MEI dropped 2 points when measured against June, falling to a mark of 144. The mark was still 4% better than last July’s 138 record, and that made 18 consecutive months of year-over-year improvement. Monster attributed the monthly decline to seasonal weakness, indicating it was in line with its expectations. All metro markets measured showed year-over-year improvement. The data-point is not widely followed nor assigned great weight by the market, and so its modestly positive news should have no effect on trading today given more important data released elsewhere.

CONSUMER CREDIT

Data on Tap for 3:00 PM EDT

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for credit expansion of $5.0 billion for June, following May’s expansion of $5.1 billion. Credit has been expanding for more than a year now, which is a good sign for consumer strength and speaks to expanding bank willingness to extend credit.

OVERSEAS MARKETS

Greek Factor: Neutral

Global markets declined Friday before the U.S. opened, following Thursday’s steep drop in the U.S., with the Dow shedding 4.3%. Some good news was found in easing pressure on Italian and Spanish credit spreads after a rather rough week. It’s best not to read too much into the deep drops across the major global markets, as they simply reflect US trading from Thursday. Global markets mostly follow the lead of the important US market on deep down days.

Global Markets

INDEX	VALUE	CHANGE	% CHANGE	TIME
FTSE 100 INDEX	5,288.53	-104.61	-1.94%	08:05
DAX INDEX	6,321.34	-93.42	-1.46%	08:06
NIKKEI 225	9,299.88	-359.30	-3.72%	02:28

CORPORATE EARNINGS SCHEDULE

Company

AboveNet Inc (Nasdaq: ABVT)

ACSM-AGAM SpA (ACS.MI)

Advanced Card Systems Holdings Ltd (8210.HK)

Aercap Hldg NV (NYSE: AER)

AES Corp (NYSE: AES)

Allianz SE (ALV.DE)

Ampliphi Biosciences Corp (OTC: APHB.PK)

Apco Oil and Gas International Inc (Nasdaq: APAGF)

Arbor Realty Trust Inc (NYSE: ABR)

Arch Chemicals Inc (NYSE: ARJ)

Arseus NV (RCUS.BR)

Artesian Resources Corp (Nasdaq: ARTNA)

Ascent Solar Technologies Inc (Nasdaq: ASTI)

AspenBio Pharma Inc (Nasdaq: APPYD)

Assicurazioni Generali SpA (G.MI)

Atlantic American Corp (Nasdaq: AAME)

Axcess International Inc (OTC: AXSI.PK)

Banca Finnat Euramerica SpA (BFE.MI)

Bastogi SpA (B.MI)

BBA Aviation plc (BBA.L)

Bcb Bancorp Inc (Nasdaq: BCBP)

Bennett Environmental Inc (BEV.TO)

Biesse SpA (BSS.MI)

Biostar Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq: BSPM)

Birdstep Technology ASA (BIRD.OL)

Bluefly Inc (Nasdaq: BFLY)

Boralex Inc (BLX.TO)

Brammer PLC (BRAM.L)

Broadwind Energy Inc (Nasdaq: BWEN)

Brookfield Office Properties Inc (BPO.TO)

Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (BRE.TO)

Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL)

Buongiorno SpA (BNG.MI)

Buzzi Unicem SpA Senza Vincoli Di Rappresentazione Grafica (BZU.MI)

Cadiz Inc (Nasdaq: CDZI)

Capital Southwest Corp (Nasdaq: CSWC)

Cell Biotech Co Ltd (049960.KQ)

Centrale del Latte di Torino & C SpA (CLT.MI)

Cinemark Holdings Inc (NYSE: CNK)

Citizens And Northern Corp (Nasdaq: CZNC)

Companhia Energetica De Sao Paulo (Cesp) (CESP3.SA)

Companhia Energetica do Ceara (COCE3.SA)

Constellation Energy Partners LLC (NYSEArca: CEP)

Corporacion Dermoestetica SA (DERM.MC)

Cowen Group Inc (Nasdaq: COWN)

Crosstex Energy Inc (Nasdaq: XTXI)

Crosstex Energy LP (Nasdaq: XTEX)

Crude Carriers Corp (NYSE: CRU)

CTC Media Inc (Nasdaq: CTCM)

Cubic Corp (NYSE: CUB)

Cumulus Media Inc (Nasdaq: CMLS)

Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq: CYCC)

Denison Mines Corp (DML.TO)

Diana Containerships Inc (Nasdaq: DCIX)

DMX Technologies Group Ltd (5CH.SI)

Dresser Rand Group Inc (NYSE: DRC)

Dril Quip Inc (NYSE: DRQ)

Drillisch AG (DRI.DE)

Duro Felguera SA (MDF.MC)

East Capital Explorer AB (ECEX.ST)

Edgar Online Inc (Nasdaq: EDGR)

Electro Rent Corp (Nasdaq: ELRC)

Emak SpA (EM.MI)

Emera Inc (EMA.TO)

Enbridge Inc (ENB.TO)

Endesa Costanera Sociedad Anonima (CECO2.BA)

Enerplus Corp (ERF.TO)

Engineering Ingegneria Informatica SpA (ENG.MI)

Entorian Technologies Inc (OTC: ENTN.PK)

Erg SpA (ERG.MI)

Esprinet SpA (PRT.MI)

Etablissements Delhaize Freres Et Cie Le Lion SA (DELB.BR)

Evergreen Solar Inc (Nasdaq: ESLR)

Female Health Co (Nasdaq: FHCO)

Flint Energy Services Ltd (FES.TO)

Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (OTC: FRVHF.PK)

Fresenius SE & Co KGaA (FRE.DE)

Gabetti Property Solutions SpA (GAB.MI)

Galapagos NV (GLPG.BR)

Generac Holdings Inc (Nasdaq: GNRC)

General De Alquiler De Maquinaria SA (GALQ.MC)

Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL)

GenMark Diagnostics Inc (Nasdaq: GNMK)

Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW)

GMP Capital Inc (GMP.TO)

Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Co Inc (OTC: GAPTQ.PK)

Great Plains Energy Inc (NYSE: GXP)

Green Bankshares Inc (Nasdaq: GRNB)

Grill Concepts Inc (OTC: GLLC.PK)

Halozyme Therapeutics Inc (Nasdaq: HALO)

Helix Biomedix Inc (OTC: HXBM.OB)

Hilltop Holdings Inc (NYSE: HTH)

HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE: HFC)

HOMEQ Corp (HEQ.TO)

Icagen Inc (Nasdaq: ICGN)

Icahn Enterprises LP (NYSE: IEP)

iGate Corp (Nasdaq: IGTE)

IMA Industria Macchine Automatiche SpA (IMA.MI)

Imperial Sugar Co (Nasdaq: IPSU)

Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper Tbk PT (INKP.JK)

Integra Bank Corp (OTC: IBNKQ.PK)

Interline Brands Inc (NYSE: IBI)

International Bancshares Corp (Nasdaq: IBOC)

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP.MI)

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq: IRWD)

Italmobiliare SpA (ITM.MI)

Itway SpA (ITW.MI)

Kearny Financial Corp (Nasdaq: KRNY)

Kulmbacher Brauerei AG (KUL.MU)

LAB Research Inc (OTC: LSHCF.PK)

Lee Enterprises Inc (NYSE: LEE)

Life Partners Holdings Inc (Nasdaq: LPHI)

Light SA (LIGT3.SA)

Logica PLC (LOG.L)

Magna International Inc (MG.TO)

Manitoba Telecom Services Inc (MBT.TO)

Mediacontech SpA (MCH.MI)

MetroGAS SA (METR.BA)

MFS Technology Ltd (5BM.SI)

MGE Energy Inc (Nasdaq: MGEE)

NASB Financial Inc (Nasdaq: NASB)

National Western Life Insurance Co (Nasdaq: NWLI)

New Century Bancorp Inc (Nasdaq: NCBC)

New Frontier Media Inc (Nasdaq: NOOF)

New Oriental Energy & Chemical Corp (OTC: NOEC.PK)

Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT)

Newlead Holdings Ltd (Nasdaq: NEWL)

NN Inc (Nasdaq: NNBR)

Northgate Minerals Corp (NGX.TO)

Northwest Pipe Co (Nasdaq: NWPX)

Norwood Financial Corp (Nasdaq: NWFL)

Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034.TW)

Novavax Inc (Nasdaq: NVAX)

Old Mutual PLC (OML.L)

Ore Holdings Inc (OTC: ORXE.PK)

Orexigen Therapeutics Inc (Nasdaq: OREX)

Osiris Therapeutics Inc (Nasdaq: OSIR)

OYO Geospace Corp (Nasdaq: OYOG)

Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk PT (TKIM.JK)

Panhandle Oil And Gas Inc (NYSE: PHX)

Paradise Co Ltd (034230.KQ)

PC Group Inc (OTC: PCGR.PK)

Pixart Imaging Inc (3227.TWO)

Platinum Capital Ltd (PMC.AX)

Plumas Bancorp (Nasdaq: PLBC)

PMC Commercial Trust (AMEX: PCC)

PNM Resources Inc (NYSE: PNM)

Portland General Electric Co (NYSE: POR)

Power Corp Of Canada (POW.TO)

Power Financial Corp (PWF.TO)

PPL Corp (NYSE: PPL)

Preformed Line Products Co (Nasdaq: PLPC)

Premier Foods PLC (PFD.L)

Presidential Life Corp (Nasdaq: PLFE)

Princeton Review Inc (Nasdaq: REVU)

Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE: PG)

Prudential PLC (PRU.L)

Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd (Nasdaq: QIHU)

Raser Technologies Inc (UA8.F)

Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc (RBA.TO)

Rodman & Renshaw Capital Group Inc (Nasdaq: RODM)

Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS.L)

Sadi Servizi Industriali SpA (SSI.MI)

Sartorius AG (SRT.F)

Seaboard Corp (AMEX: SEB)

Searchmedia Holdings Ltd (AMEX: IDI)

Sedona Corp (OTC: SDNA.PK)

Senomyx Inc (Nasdaq: SNMX)

Shanghai International Airport Co Ltd (600009.SS)

Shanxi Xishan Coal And Electricity Power Co Ltd (000983.SZ)

Shenandoah Telecommunications Co (Nasdaq: SHEN)

Silverbirch Energy Corp (SBE.V)

Singapore Land Ltd (S30.SI)

Sirona Dental Systems Inc (Nasdaq: SIRO)

Smith And Nephew Plc (SN.L)

Snc Lavalin Group Inc (SNC.TO)

Societa Cattolica di Assicurazione Sc (CASS.MI)

Sound Global Ltd (E6E.SI)

Southern Union Co (NYSE: SUG)

SP Bancorp Inc (Nasdaq: SPBC)

Springsoft Inc (2473.TW)

Sprott Resource Lending Corp (SIL.TO)

Stanley Gibbons Group Ltd (SGI.L)

Stefanel SpA (STEF.MI)

Stonemor Partners LP (Nasdaq: STON)

Suffolk Bancorp (Nasdaq: SUBK)

Sun-Rype Products Ltd (SRF.TO)

Superior Industries International Inc (NYSE: SUP)

TELUS Corp (T.TO)

Tetra Technologies Inc (NYSE: TTI)

Tianjin Tianlian Public Utilities Co Ltd (8290.HK)

Tipp24 AG (TIM.DE)

Tiscali SpA (TIS.MI)

TMX Group Inc (X.TO)

Tod S SpA (TOD.MI)

Transdel Pharmaceuticals Inc (OTC: TDLPQ.PK)

Trasy Gold Ex Ltd (8063.HK)

TXT e Solutions SpA (TXT.MI)

UMH Properties Inc (AMEX: UMH)

UniTek Global Services Inc (Nasdaq: UNTK)

US Concrete Inc (Nasdaq: USCR)

US Gold Corp (NYSE: UXG)

Viasat Inc (Nasdaq: VSAT)

VisionChina Media Inc (Nasdaq: VISN)

Warner Chilcott Ltd (Nasdaq: WCRX)

Warwick Valley Telephone Co (Nasdaq: WWVY)

Washington Post Co (NYSE: WPO)

Waterstone Financial Inc (Nasdaq: WSBF)

Weight Watchers International Inc (NYSE: WTW)

William Hill PLC (WMH.L)

Willis Lease Finance Corp (Nasdaq: WLFC)

Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW)

Windstream Corp (NasdaqGS: WIN)

WOM World Of Medicine AG (WOM.DE)

Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co Ltd (3898.HK)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Morning Greek Report - Government Shutdown, ECB Hike, Jobless Claims, Chain Store Sales, Oil, Japan, Spain, BBBY, GE

Greek Factor: Neutral

The "Greek Factor" ranges from +3 to -3, and is a subjective measure of The Greek's view of the market impact of individual and aggregate news and the day's scheduled events.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: Nasdaq: BBBY, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WFC, Nasdaq: DELL, Nasdaq: ARIA, NYSE: NEM, NYSE: DFS, NYSE: STZ, NYSE: BKC, NYSE: AZZ, Nasdaq: CHOP, Nasdaq: LAKE, NYSE: MOV, Nasdaq: PENX, Nasdaq: PEDH, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: RAD, NYSE: RPM, NYSE: GBX, Nasdaq: NCTY, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ

Morning Greek Report - Government Shutdown, ECB Hike, Jobless Claims, Chain Store Sales, Oil, Japanese Economy, Spanish Bonds, BBBY, GE

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Greek Factor: +1

Weekly Jobless Claims were reported this morning for the period ending April 2nd. Good news! New unemployment insurance filings fell by another 10K last week, to 382K. The prior week's count was revised higher though, to 392K from the initially reported 388K. Economists had been looking for a reading of 385K, but this is less important than the weekly change, given the regular nature of the data. The four-week moving average for new claims filings improved by 5,750 this week, to 389,500.

Pending Government Shutdown

Greek Factor: -1

It appears the GOP would prefer a government shutdown, as its PR advisors have likely determined the negative impact to public perception of the President's Administration would benefit it in the next election. It may just be that the GOP knows the President will do whatever he can to avoid a shutdown, and so it's best to push to the midnight hour. If no deal is reached by Friday at midnight, there will be no money left to fund Saturday's business. A shutdown will affect the economy: key agencies that have dealings with day-to-day business will halt work; the Small Business Administration will stop processing new loans; the FHA guarantees behind 1/3 of new mortgages would dry up; and the IRS would stop processing paper tax returns.

European Central Bank (ECB) Raises Interest Rate

Greek Factor: -1

The ECB raised interest rates to combat inflation, an important change in monetary policy that could be construed both ways with regard to the "Greek Factor," or its market impact today or in the near-term. The ECB hiked its key rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 1.25%, as it warns of rising commodity, food and energy prices. Jean-Claude Trichet still noted the absolute level of the European rate still supported economic expansion. The reason I have attributed a negative Greek Factor to the move is that it raises market perception of an inflation reality, a scenario that is of course still being debated in Washington. The hike should support American trade with Europe though, as long as the Americans are not missing a real inflation threat. The Bank of England (BOE) also made its monetary policy today, holding its key lending rate steady this month.

Retail Chain Store Sales

Greek Factor: +1

The early take on March same-store sales seems to indicate most retailers beat expectations, which were set low due to high gasoline prices and early indications of issue. However, perhaps winter-beaten consumers made a dash to relieve pent-up demand, and certainly the gasoline price situation has been a steadily deteriorating one; so that maybe gas prices had not reached the important threshold soon enough in March to affect overall spending. In aggregate, retailers were expected to post their first monthly decline in same-store sales since August 2009, partly due to the late April falling of Easter this year. A tally of analysts covering 25 companies had consensus expectations looking for a 0.7% sales decline in March. Thus far, with 17 reporting, 11 showed gains in sales. That news should help the early trading today.

Oil to $109

Greek Factor: -1

The continual rise of oil prices is a negative and intensifying factor to stocks. With the euro strengthening, and given the recent Chinese rate hike, the dollar lost some ground today. With oil priced to the dollar, that means Americans are paying more for it. It would seem we are trading exports for higher food and energy prices, and I'm not so sure this is the best long-term bet for us...

Bank of Japan Cuts Economic Outlook, Issues Aid

Greek Factor: +1

The economic forecast was clearly expected to be reduced, and so the aid issuance supported Japanese shares today and looks a positive for the US markets as well. The BOJ offered a 1 Trillion Yen ($12 Billion) lending facility for companies impacted by the earthquake, which will offer companies 1 year loans at near zero interest rates. This is certainly helpful. The bank kept its rate at zero to 0.1%, and maintained its asset purchase program levels (previously increased by 5 Trillion Yen). Anything new the BOJ could do would support its markets and the global markets at this point. However, it appears there's a growing concern about the developing economic impact to the world's third largest economy.

Spain Bond Issuance

Greek Factor: +1

Spain issued new bonds today and solid demand showed no ill effects from its neighbor and fellow PIIGS nation, Portugal. Spain's offering was just above the mid-range of its target and the yield just short of an offering it made a month ago. So, therefore, the markets received it with open arms.

Corporate News Wire

Bed Bath and Beyond Benefits on Results

Bed Bath and Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY) shares were up about 10% in early trading Thursday, as it benefited on its EPS results. BBBY basically blew out estimates for $0.97 a share, earning $1.12 in its most recent quarter. The company also raised forecasts for its full year, putting its range above the consensus analysts had seen. With sales also exceeding analysts' forecasts, the shares marked a new 52-week high today.

GE Pushes into Solar Energy

GE (NYSE: GE) announced it will build a factory in the US, the largest of its kind, that will employ 400 people. GE is investing $600 million, buying the remaining stake in PrimeStar Solar, a maker of thin film solar panels. The plant will produce enough panels to power 80K new homes annually. GE also announced over 100 megawatts of new commercial agreements, supporting its effort. The conglomerate's shares are down fractionally in early trading.

The Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) Securities Tech Transformation Summit highlights a presentation by Dell (Nasdaq: DELL). Ariad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ARIA) presents at the Leerink Swan & Co. Oncology Roundtable Conference. Analysts and shareholder meetings are scheduled for Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS).

The EPS schedule highlights Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), AZZ Inc. (NYSE: AZZ), China Gerui Advanced Materials (Nasdaq: CHOP), Lakeland Industries (Nasdaq: LAKE), Movado Group (NYSE: MOV), Penford (Nasdaq: PENX), Peoples Educational Holdings (Nasdaq: PEDH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), RPM International (NYSE: RPM), Greenbrier (NYSE: GBX), The9 (Nasdaq: NCTY) and several others.

EIA Natural Gas Report

The EIA's Natural Gas Report for the week ending April 1 showed a net draw from inventory of 45 Bcf. Inventory stood 86 Bcf less than last year at this time and 10 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of year.

Consumer Credit Report

February Consumer Credit data are due for release at 3:00 PM today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for a $5 billion increase in consumer credit levels in February, matching January's increase.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.