Tuesday – A New Question is Being Posed

Stocks opened higher today, but after 10:00 AM reports showing a slower pace of new home sales and a drop off in consumer confidence, there seems to be a new question being posed. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: VOO) is up about a half of a point despite the news. Find all the day’s reports here for your inspection.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Several economic reports are set for Tuesday’s schedule. The important but volatile Durable Goods Orders Report is scheduled for 8:30 AM release. There’s something interesting I want you to realize about durable goods order trends. While the month-to-month comparisons seem to show improvement most months, the long-term chart comparing yearly results show a slowing of improvement.

Economists expect durable goods orders rose 3.5% in February, based on Bloomberg’s survey. That compares against the decrease in orders in January, when they fell 5.2%. Excluding transportation goods, which carry high ticket prices and can skew the message, orders are expected to edge up just 0.7%, versus last month’s 1.9% increase.

The first of the week’s real estate data reaches the wire on Tuesday when Case Shiller reports on its Home Price Index. The 9:00 AM report covers the month of January. Economists expect the group’s 20-city seasonally adjusted index to show price increase of 1.0%, against December’s increase of 0.9%. Such news continues to support the real estate sector, but even the slightest sign of weakness would damage housing stocks, which some say are priced for perfection. New Home Sales data for February follows at 10:00 AM ET. Economists are expecting a slip in the annual pace of new home sales to 425K, against January’s pace of 437K.

The Conference Board reports on Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM ET. Confidence has been improving since Washington D.C. got out of the way of the economy earlier this year. The data for February showed the Confidence Index rose sharply to 69.6, up more than 10 points from the prior month. According to Barron’s, the consensus expects a lower reading of 67.5 for March. Tuesday also offers the regular retail same-store sales data. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed week-to-week sales increased 1.4%. On a year-to-year basis, sales were marked up 2.3%. Each measure represented improvement against the prior week. As we near Easter, sales should be markedly higher.

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank reports on regional manufacturing activity at 10:00 AM. Economists expect the bank’s index to show a slight drop to a reading of 5.5 for March, which would be down from 6.0 in February.

State Street (NYSE: STT) reports on Investor Confidence at 10:00 AM. Last month’s report showed that global investor confidence (or risk taking in institutional portfolios) increased due to a greater appetite in North America. The Global Index measured 94.8, and the North American Index reached 86.3.

Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher is set to speak about U.S. monetary policy.

There’s a nuclear summit in Seoul, South Korea. It would make perfect sense for North Korea to do something provocative.

The U.S. Supreme Court will start talking about same-sex marriage.

In corporate news, Dupont (NYSE: DD) and Monsanto (NYSE: MON) are holding a conference call on a new and improved soybean. Look for analyst or investor meetings at United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and General Cable (NYSE: BGC). A Delaware bankruptcy court considers whether to approve the $10.5 million sale of Pension Worldwide’s brokerage assets. The earnings slate highlights reports from SAIC (NYSE: SAI), Alexza Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ALXA), Bacterin Int’l (Nasdaq: BONE), Landec (Nasdaq: LNDC), Luna Innovations (Nasdaq: LUNA), Children’s Place (Nasdaq: PLCE), China Gerui Advanced Materials Group (Nasdaq: CHOP), Digital Ally (Nasdaq: DGLY), Dover Saddlery (Nasdaq: DOVR), Envivio (Nasdaq: ENVI), Image Sensing Systems (Nasdaq: ISNS), Linktone (Nasdaq: LTON), Mattress Firm Holding (Nasdaq: MFRM), Metabolix (Nasdaq: MBLX), Neogen (Nasdaq: NEOG), Nupathe (Nasdaq: PATH) and more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

German GDP Outlook Cut

The German Bundesbank admitted to a decelerating economy, and reported real GDP growth would slow in 2013. The admission of weakness in Europe’s key economy lends to concern of the contagious nature of the euro region’s financial and economic crisis. As a result, stocks across the euro region were lower, as the news also weighed on U.S. futures in the early morning. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) and Powershares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) are pressured by the report, though the day’s jobs report will ultimately dictate direction.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

German GDP

The German DAX Index was down 0.2% just after 7:00 AM ET, and the EURO STOXX 50 Price Index was off 0.3%. Key German securities like the iShares MSCI Germany Index (NYSE: EWG) were likely to open lower as well. Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares were trading lower in Germany to start the day, and my expectations are low for a short list of important German shares.

German Based Stock	Premarket Trading (7:30)
Volkswagen AG (OTC: VLKAY)	NA
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB)	-1.3%
SAP AG (NYSE: SAP)	-0.1%
Siemens AG (NYSE: SI)	NA
BASF (OTC: BASFY)	NA
Bayer (OTC: BAYRY)	NA

The German central bank said that soft euro region economies combined with global economic slowdown are weighing on Germany’s economic production. The Bundesbank reported real GDP would likely slow to a growth pace of 0.4% in 2013, down from its June forecast for 1.6% growth. The bank also reduced its 2012 expectations to 0.7% GDP growth, which was down from its previous estimate for 1.0% growth. The bank colored its gray forecast with a note that: if all should go well with the euro region bank and sovereign debt crisis, then growth could revive to a pace of 1.9% in 2014.

Investors will and should have little faith in hopeful long-term forecasts during a period of declining current estimates, as in my experience, cuts to forecasts in such periods are more likely than the realization of them. The same goes for stocks in periods of declining EPS estimates, based on my personal experience and study as an analyst.

Thus, investors might reconsider early bets on recovery. Ahead of the ECB In early September, I noted European stocks likely marked near-term bottom, and I said they should experience a short-term recovery. If you think that was something, see my June article discussing a super relief rally for Greek and European shares, and look at the charts.

Chart by Yahoo Finance

At this point, I see that recovery tested and would lighten or exit positions even as European central banks discuss adding more support. The shares of relative securities are much higher since our articles authored in September and June. However, if recovery is pushed forward now, then investors could reconsider the securities, especially if estimates and operating results are hampered near-term. Depending on the importance of tax considerations, sales of such securities could begin today or in earnest in January.

European ETF	Change Since August
iShares Europe (NYSE: IEV)	+8.4%
iShares Germany (NYSE: EWG)	+12.4%
iShares France (NYSE: EWQ)	+10.2%
iShares U.K. (NYSE: EWU)	+5.1%
iShares Spain (NYSE: EWP)	+11.4%
iShares Italy (NYSE: EWI)	+8.7%
Global X FTSE Greece (NYSE: GREK)	+32.6%

I conclude and reiterate that pressure remains on American shares as well, due to the apparent deterioration in the important German economy. However, the U.S. market will be completely dependent today on the data from the Labor Department. The news regarding employment is not expected to be healthy, but pundits have Hurricane Sandy to place the blame upon for now. On net, at this hour, I would take risk off.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stocks Face 2 Conflicting Factors

By "The Greek"

As stocks enter the final week of November, they face two conflicting factors which will pull on them until one is victorious in controlling market direction or is nullified. The best Black Friday on record, in terms of total sales, will now fight with reviving concerns about the fiscal cliff and also a resurfacing European financial crisis.

Whether it is a good sign or not is debatable in my opinion, since heavy Black Friday shopping simply indicates how deal dependent Americans are these days. I discussed this in my Black Friday piece. Indeed, the busy bargain season drew out historic sales figures, up 13%, to record $59.1 billion in receipts. Discounters like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) continued to do better than others, as Americans sought out value. Web marketers like Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) continued to steal market share with online sales topping $1 billion for the first time ever. Amazon.com was the most visited retail website on Black Friday, with Wal-Mart second and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) third. But a Reuters/Ipsos poll discovered that a majority of shoppers kept to their budgets. So, are they shopping more, or simply shopping smarter? If it’s the latter, which is what I am confident of, then overall seasonal sales may disappoint econo-watchers when the data is cleaned of population growth. I suspect that as this view gathers popular steam, it will weaken in its support of stocks against its stronger opponent.

Meet Your New Boss, Same as the Old Boss
All the nice talk was great, but Congress had better quickly follow its congenial accounting with some significant break-through before too long. Otherwise, the market will rapidly (like an avalanche) run right over their collapsing cooperation. Stocks are starting this day lower on just that overhanging issue, and on a revival of financial crisis fear in Europe. Over there, where a grand idea proved more difficult to follow through on in tough times, it seems the voters of Spain and Greece are rising up against roughened rules declared to put things in order. If the people won’t agree, then you have no accord and no resolution to your financial crisis. What may follow remains the complete collapse of the union.

So investors have these important issues to consider today, and as we move forward without permanent fixes to the weights against stocks, the direction should turn sour. How long Congress takes to solve its fiscal cliff crisis might just depend on how fast investors begin to express such doubt in their ability to do so. After rallying on hope and promises last week, the market representative SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) are marking red ground ranging from 0.3% to 0.6% lower to start this week. Investors are advised here to begin revisiting hedges and counterweights against the market.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Congressional Leaders Offer Reassuring Fiscal Statements

A joint press conference that concluded just before noon, featuring Repre- sentatives John Boehner, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, offered hope that a fiscal cliff compromise might be accomplished. The conference was certainly geared toward appeasing populace and market concerns regarding Congressional intent in reaching a mutually acceptable agreement. Thus, stocks should be supported by the news at least heading into the close of trading Friday and possibly through next week, barring other catalysts.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Go Long Over the Short Short-Term

More than a hint of compromise was in the wind as the group congenially addressed the nation. House Speaker Boehner said that some revenues were on the table. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said that some spending cuts were available. Democratic Party Senate Leader Harry Reid said the cornerstones of a deal were in place, and that they intended to close a deal rather than simply pass the buck forward. He added that the deal was a high priority focus, and that representatives were not going to wait until the last day of December, which was a concern of ours. He also noted that they might even work through a portion of the Thanksgiving Day recess, reflecting how important resolving the issue is to them. Finally, Senate Minority Leader McConnell concurred with the statements and closed, giving the public a sense of calm about the issue not previously existent.

Stocks, which had been down after heading into the press conference with low expectations, immediately broke above break-even ground. The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), which was down 5.1% from the election through Thursday November 15, was approaching a half point gain at noon, as was the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ). Oil is benefiting from the news as well, with the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) security driving up over 1.3% at the hour of scribbling here. Even gold is benefiting from the clarity, and as pressure lessens from its sellers using capital to buy stocks viewed as too cheap. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has broken above break-even ground. I offer kudos to the congressional leaders for this expression, because if it is executed upon, it offers support to shares. It at least reverses the near-term downtrend, and so I advise investors to raise risk and remove hedges at least through next week, barring other factors.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

A Perfect Storm Threatens Stocks

As if the fiscal cliff folly in Congress was not enough, now war looms in the Middle East as well? It’s reminiscent of Superstorm Sandy (which oh by the way was a catalyst for recession too) with the confluence of a deep dip in the jet stream on an arctic low pulling in a hurricane into our most populous region. Seriously, the perfect stock market storm seems to be forming over the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: NYX) and NASDAQ (Nasdaq: NDAQ).

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Perfect Storm

Earlier this week, I warned that the fiscal cliff issue is doing damage to the economy right now, as it stifles business investment. I said that we should be pushing for a compromise to be reached as soon as possible, because economic risk is not restricted to 2013 – the issue is hurting our economy today. Still, based on the initial posturing of both Democratic and Republican leadership, it appears to me they’ll hold course right on up to the deadline, if not beyond it, even despite the ratings warning from Standard & Poor’s (of McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP)).

With the next elections two years away, and the presidency not up for grabs for another four years, I suppose our elected officials believe there’s a cushion for us to forget any fumble that might occur in Washington this year. The President seems assured by his reelection, and seems to believe the American people have given him a mandate. So, he’s more likely to hold firmly to his position this time around, and not cave on the tax issues at hand. Meanwhile, Republicans are certain that their base must have those tax breaks, or else they risk losing seats to Tea Party Republicans or fracturing their own party. This issue has been enough to sink the stock market since the election, with the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) off 5.1% since. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) are down 5.0% and 5.6%, respectively.

Today, though, we have even more to worry about. As if the impending Iranian conflict was not enough, now we have a serious scuffle playing out in Gaza that could spark into something much larger if the newly seated leader (read radical) in Egypt, the desperate despot in Syria, and the Iranian madman get itchy trigger fingers. Despite economic concerns on the fiscal cliff issue, this geopolitical tension has oil prices holding up. The iPath GSCI Crude Oil TR Index (NYSE: OIL) is down by a relatively modest 3.3% since the election, though the shares of petroleum bellwether ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) are off 6.2% since.

So take shelter folks. Continue to reduce beta exposure and hedge against overall market decline. Despite the drop in gold of late, I continue to favor it along with silver and other hedging instruments for the longer term. I would rather withhold from discussion for now another short-term hedging instrument, which I will discuss very shortly (so follow my column to keep informed). I’ll dedicate a specific article to this very important instrument in the very near future, but at this point I’m not ready to discuss it. You should consider hard assets, including real estate and gold, and also instruments like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV). I believe the concerns about deflation are overdone, as they ignore the damage that I expect to be inflicted upon the world’s fiat currencies ahead. Until the next time, keep your head down and your exposure hedged.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Eye DC for Direction Today

As Syria and Israel trade fire, Greece is suddenly at play again due to IMF static, and the fiscal cliff remains unresolved. For these reasons and the other potential catastrophes they could catalyze down the road, stocks were lower in Asia and Europe in Tuesday trade. Early published U.S. economic data might help hold American stocks up this morning, but the speeches of President Obama and Congressional leaders will likely dictate how it closes. In early trading, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) were modestly lower.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

International Indexes

EUROPE	ASIA
EURO STOXX 50: -0.6%	Hang Seng: -1.1%
FTSE 100: -0.6%	Nikkei 225: -0.2%
German DAX: -0.9%	S&P/ASX 200: -1.5%

The IMF is playing hardball with Greece, demanding a better long-term debt management plan be worked out to ensure its repayment. Greece’s European partners, dependent on the future of Greece, have given it a couple more years to meet budget goals. That’s something we suggested more than a year before Europe realized it would be necessary. Perhaps, eventually, the IMF and EU will realize that forced austerity during deep recession was not a good idea to promote economic growth and recovery as well; and hopefully it won’t be before Greeks vote in a government that will make a new path first. In any event, European shares are struggling today due to the re-born issue that is Greece and the European domino demise effect waiting to be set off if Greece should fail (by its creditors’ standards).

U.S. Drivers
Thanks to a duo of benign to slightly positive American economic data points, and some select earnings reports, American stocks have some support this morning and are only slightly in the red broadly speaking.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index improved by 0.3 points in October, to 93.1. Make no mistake, the index continued to reflect a pessimistic attitude among small businessmen at the latest level. Also, the survey was closed before the presidential election, and likely reflects some perspective of the result that conflicted with how things played out. If taken today, I expect this index would deteriorate substantially. Still, it acts as a support for as long as investors don’t realize this at the majority. This can last from a matter of minutes to a period of weeks, depending on how widely followed the topic is by media and pundits. However, the market’s disappointment with the presidential result has already been discounted and well documented.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) recovered post Hurricane Sandy. The latest reporting for the period ending November 10th showed the index improved to report growth of 0.7%, versus the prior week’s contraction of 0.2%. That left the year-over-year growth rate improved to a still mediocre 1.8%, versus the prior week’s 1.4%. Redbook marked that year-to-year rate at 1.6%, versus 0.8% from the week before. No matter which reading you believe, the message is the same. Still, Home Depot (NYSE: HD) lifted the housing and retail group, as the company raised its full year outlook on improved real estate investment and the impact of Hurricane Sandy reconstruction efforts. Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) was likewise lifted on the news, and is the company we favored most in a recent report. It just goes to show that one company’s pain can be another’s gain.

Later today, at 2:00 PM ET, the Treasury Department will report on the monthly Treasury Budget. A seasonal September surplus of $75 billion is expected (by economists) to be followed by an October deficit of $113 billion. Year-to-date, the deficit stands at $1.3 trillion, with October set to close out the fiscal period. This should only serve to remind the market of the issues we have with the budget, and the long-term ramifications that remain threatening.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen will discuss central bank communications and take questions during a visit to Berkley’s Haas School of Business. I do not expect much of a market impact from her comments.

The corporate wire has Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Humana (NYSE: HUM), Mattel (NYSE: MAT), Xerox (NYSE: XRX), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) and Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) discussing operations with investors or analysts. As these events are better described as sales pitch than operations analysis, the stocks might get some lift generally speaking. The day’s earnings wire highlights reports from Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Idera Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: IDRA), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Renren (Nasdaq: RENN), TJX Cos. (NYSE: TJX) and many more names.

Before the day closes, I expect stock action will be dictated by the discussion of the Democratic and Republican Congressional leaders and their marking of the “lame duck session”. Obviously, it shouldn’t be called that this year, but it continues to be referred to as such in the media. The President may also find a microphone today after he meets with labor leaders to discuss the fiscal cliff. The market will be betting broadly long or short on the day-to-day developments regarding the fiscal cliff, so keep your eyes on Washington.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Investors Fought Off Fear Monday

With the fiscal cliff still overhanging, investors bravely bid for stocks Monday morning. I’m not sure if Veteran’s Day had anything to do with traders’ courageous calls or whether it was bargain hunting that had them hungry for stocks. Still, questions renewed and stocks wavered through the day around the breakeven line. Heading into the closing hours, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) were each higher by about a third of a percentage point, but upside seems limited until Congress cures its confliction.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

The Day’s Drivers
American stock exchanges were open for the celebration of Veteran’s Day, but bond markets, banks and government agency offices and some corporate were closed. There were no economic report releases on the schedule due to the national holiday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its World Energy Outlook Monday morning. It spurred headlines this morning, mostly on its prediction that North America and the United States would become the world’s most important energy producer by 2020, overtaking even Saudi Arabia. United States Oil (NYSE: USO) gave back early gains by the afternoon and was off fractionally at the hour of publishing here. Even as the U.S. is predicted to become a net energy exporter, demand for Middle Eastern oil will remain high because of the needs of expanding China and India.

Euro-zone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss Greece’s future. Greece is currently awaiting a critical tranche of capital borrowings in order to meet its next bond repayment this Friday. The problem is not Greece’s intent to deliver on promises, but its ability to deliver on promises that hinge on its populace’s willingness to swallow. As long as the world pressures Greeks, the Greeks will find ways around the pressure (read black market and cheating), and no economic benefit will ensue to tax collectors.

The corporate calendar has Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI) and Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH) meeting with analysts. The J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) analyst covering Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) cut the stock to neutral today, from overweight due to the potential impact of the re-election of President Obama on the coal and energy sectors. Cost pressure in the mining sector was also a catalyst for the move. CAT shares recovered from a resulting early morning selloff and were in the green at publishing here. The earnings schedule highlights reports by Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), China Yuchai Int’l (NYSE: CYD), Country Style Cooking (Nasdaq: CCSC), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Esco Technologies (NYSE: ESE), Fortegra Financial (NYSE: FRF), Idera Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: IDRA), Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: JEC), Matador Resources (Nasdaq: MTDR), NAPCO Security (Nasdaq: NSSC), NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ), Soufun Holdings (Nasdaq: SFUN), Vermillion (Nasdaq: VRML), Weatherford Int’l (NYSE: WFT), Wuxi Pharmatech (NYSE: WX) and many more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Nothing Has Changed, Unfortunately

The day after the day after was likely affected by its predecessor, as investors shopped for bargains in the early going, following yesterday’s post election slide. Wednesday’s losses amounted to -2.3% on the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), -2.1% on the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and -2.4% on the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ). Stocks sank, I suppose as a slew of Republicans shed risk on every fiscal and economic concern raised over the last two years of campaigning. Most of the day’s other data was benign, leaving investors to realize that while it’s true that nothing has changed, nothing truly has changed… Heading into the close, losses are once again mounting.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

International Markets

EUROPE	ASIA
EURO STOXX 50: Unch.	Hang Seng: -2.4%
FTSE 100: -0.3%	Nikkei: -1.5%
German DAX: -0.4%	S&P / ASX 200: -0.7%

Greece’s Parliament followed its prescribed path, passing new austerity measures despite the protests burning across Athens this week. For as long as Greece can keep European and IMF funding support without falling into complete anarchy, order can be maintained in Europe and in global shares; but it’s not the only way.

Despite after seeing economic forecasts for Europe slashed on Wednesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates steady Thursday. However, ECB Chief Mario Draghi raised concerns with his always frank discussion. Draghi said the economies of Europe continue to show very weak activity extending through the fourth quarter. Growth momentum is expected to remain weak next year as well, according to Draghi. In the U.K., the Bank of England (BOE) likewise left rates unchanged. That said, the ECB’s most recent plan to purchase the debt of distressed sovereigns in a sterile manner was quite reassuring to markets, and was reiterated and reassured today.

Just a couple days after the U.S. democratic process determined President Obama would remain in office for another four years, the communists in China simply reshuffled their leadership unchallenged. Needless to say, markets were on edge, especially given the military exercises taking place between U.S. and Japanese naval forces in China’s backyard. Of course, it wasn’t either of these two important factors that drove Asian shares downward Thursday, but instead it was the lead of U.S. markets the day before.

U.S. Economic Data
New International Trade data was reported Thursday morning for the month of September. Economists expected the trade gap to expand to $45.4 billion, from $43.8 billion (revised from $44.2 billion) in August. Instead, it narrowed to $41.5 billion, as export growth outpaced imports. The best news is that each grew through the month, as close inspection of the trends shows that both export and import growth was near stalling on a year-to-year basis. This report provides some solid good news to the contrary.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 3 was expected to show significant disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy. Claims declined by 8,000 last week, to 355K, which was far short of the economists’ consensus for 370K. However, the report showed the four-week moving average for claims increased by 3,250, to 370,500, probably due to the lapping of that suspect report of several weeks ago.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index improved slightly week-to-week, to -34.4, from -34.7. I expect consumer confidence to deteriorate post the re-election of President Obama, because of my view that confidence had improved due to some hope for a change. The shares of retailers have traded tumultuously since the election, and are down again this afternoon. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) for one is off 0.5% at this hour.

The EIA reported that natural gas inventory in storage increased by 21 Bcf in the period ending November 2nd, to a level 244 Bcf more than the 5-year average for this time of year. Natural gas stocks have been taking a hit on the Obama victory and the harder case against fracking and fossil fuel (over alternative energy) development that is a likely result. The shares of Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) are down another 1.7% late Thursday.

Corporate Drivers

The Day’s Most Actives

UPSIDE	DOWNSIDE
DUSA Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: DUCA) +38%	Catalyst Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: CPRX) -68%
Rosetta Stone (NYSE: RST) +22%	BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BCRX) -40%
FalconStor Software (Nasdaq: FALC) +24%	Progenics (Nasdaq: PGNX) -25%
Exetor Resource (NYSE: XRA) +23%	Cobra Electronics (Nasdaq: COBR) -26%
Intermune (Nasdaq: ITMN) +17%	Kingtone Wirelessinfo (Nasdaq: KONE) -23%

McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) posted its first global monthly sales decline in nine years. Same-store sales fell 1.8% in October, and the company’s shares are down 1.7% in late trading Thursday.

Companies meeting with analysts and investors today included Kellogg (NYSE: K), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) and Netgear (Nasdaq: NTGR). The earnings wire highlighted CareFusion (NYSE: CFN), Dean Foods (NYSE: DF), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), FirstEnergy (NYSE: FE), International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT), Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS), Microchip Technology (Nasdaq: MCHP), Molycorp (NYSE: MCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA), PPL Corp. (NYSE: PPL), Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Windstream (NYSE: WIN), Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP), Aeroflex (NYSE: ARX), Apollo Investment (Nasdaq: AINV), Autobytel (Nasdaq: ABTL), Capstone Turbine (Nasdaq: CPST), Caribou Coffee (Nasdaq: CBOU), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Energizer (NYSE: ENR), FLY Leasing (NYSE: FLY), FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN), Great Plains Energy (NYSE: GXP), Hawaiian Telcom (Nasdaq: HCOM), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: JAZZ), Lifetime Brands (Nasdaq: LCUT), Lions Gate (NYSE: LGF), Markel (NYSE: MKL), Meridian Bioscience (Nasdaq: VIVO), Molycorp (NYSE: MCP), PC Mall (Nasdaq: MALL), SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD), Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN), TheStreet (NYSE: TST) and more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Tuesday's Market Factors

It’s all about the election Tuesday, and with just the regular weekly chain store sales data on the economic slate, the market will simply speculate about the political results. Though, it’s our view here that a market rally will follow a Mitt Romney triumph this week. Several important economic catalysts are emanating from overseas today, namely in Greece and Germany. In early trading, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) +0.5%, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) +0.6% and the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) +0.1% are each higher.

Overseas Markets

Europe	Asia
EURO STOXX 50: +0.5%	Nikkei 225: -0.4%
FTSE 100: +0.6%	Hang Seng: -0.3%
German DAX: +0.7%	S&P/ASX 200: +0.2%

International Drivers
After yesterday’s discussion, the Greek Parliament takes up austerity measures and is expected to pass them despite pressure from Greek unions, which have called for a general strike. You can expect things to turn nasty again in Greece if a new round of austerity gets the okay. In fact, the disruptive political coalition should gain support if Greece continues to load its citizens with austerity as it struggles through economic depression. Enough is enough already.

German factory orders fell more than they have in a year. Factory orders fell by 3.3% in September, even after adjustment for prices; and this follows a revised August order number, which was down 0.8%. Economists were caught off guard, with the consensus forecast seeing a 0.4% decline. The spread of economic contagion into Germany has the cornerstone economy cracking. Perhaps this will be a catalyst toward turning European leaders’ targets to growth and away from debt management and austerity. It’s just a shame historic evidence was not enough.

Manufacturing output in the United Kingdom rose, but by less than expected in September. Factory output rose by 0.1% in the U.K., though economists were looking for a 0.4% increase. Overall industrial output dropped by 1.7%, though that was attributed to maintenance work at oil and gas refining facilities. The UK exited recession in the September quarter, but more recent signs have indicated there could be a double dip.

U.S. Data Drivers
Weekly chain store sales were disrupted by Hurricane Sandy which struck through the period. Sales through the period ending November 3 showed sales slipped 0.2% week-to-week. The year-over-year sales pace slipped to +1.4% from +2.7% the week before. Redbook showed an increase in the yearly pace to 0.8%, versus 1.8% the week before. Even excluding the hurricane, sales have hit stall speed after slowing dramatically over the last several months, so we’ll want to keep a close eye on activity as the critical holiday season starts in a few weeks.

The day’s earnings highlights reports from Computer Sciences (NYSE: CSC), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), Denbury Resources (NYSE: DNR), DirecTV (NYSE: DTV), Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA), Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR), Expeditors International (Nasdaq: EXPR), Fossil (Nasdaq: FOSL), Frontier Communications (NYSE: FTR), Health Care REIT (NYSE: HCN), International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF), Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO), Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC), News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWSA), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), Pepco Holdings (NYSE: POM), Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU), SCANA (NYSE: SCG), Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE), Acadia Healthcare (Nasdaq: HCHC), Access Midstream Partners (Nasdaq: ACMP), AcelRx Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACRX), Alexza Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ALXA), Alterra Capital (Nasdaq: ALTE), Amdocs (NYSE: DOX), AOL (NYSE: AOL), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), Calpine (NYSE: CPN), Charter Communications (Nasdaq: CHTR), Cinemark (NYSE: CNK), Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), Georgia Gulf (NYSE: GGC), Gulfmark Offshore (NYSE: GLF), Gulfport Energy (Nasdaq: GPOR), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), Higher One Holdings (NYSE: ONE), Isis Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ISIS), Louisiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX), Neenah Paper (NYSE: NP), Office Depot (NYSE: ODP), OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX), PharmAthene (NYSE: PIP), Rackspace Hosting (NYSE: RAX), Scientific Games (Nasdaq: SGMS), Tidewater (NYSE: TDW), Towers Watson (NYSE: TW), Vitamin Shoppe (NYSE: VSI) and more.

The Morning’s Most Active Stocks

Upside	Downside
Fabrinet (NYSE: FN) +24%	THQ (Nasdaq: THQI) -45%
Rosetta Genomics (Nasdaq: ROSG) +22%	Sypris Solutions (Nasdaq: SYPR) -26%
EnerNOC (Nasdaq: ENOC) +21%	ServiceSource (Nasdaq: SRVE) -36%
Jive Software (Nasdaq: JIVE) +17%	Responsys (Nasdaq: MKTG) -29%
Carbonite (Nasdaq: CARB) +12%	MakeMyTrip (Nasdaq: MMYT) -25%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Week Ahead: The Presidential Election and Some

The week ahead will be dominated by the presidential election in the United States. Obviously, how congress takes shape will matter a great deal as well. It is my view that any political victory for the Republican Party will travel with stocks. This is not to say a Democratic Party victory will penalize stocks. Political leadership will also change in the economically critically Communist China, where new leaders will be appointed this week. Still, there are more than just political catalysts to consider this week. In Greece, Parliament will once again take up austerity and the Greek unions will be striking against it. The European Commission will update its economic forecasts for the region, and the ECB will issue new monetary policy, which will likely be unchanged. Besides all these dynamic factors, several regular monthly and weekly economic reports weigh, plus a slew of important earnings reports.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

The Presidential Election Plus

Monday
There’s just one economic report on the schedule Monday, the ISM Nonmanufacturing Index. The measure of the service sector of the economy is critically important, due to the importance of services industries in America. The service sector is responsible for 90% of American economic output. Economists expect the Nonmanufacturing Index will show an October decline to 54.9, from 55.1 in September. Remember though that a measure above 50 continues to represent economic expansion. The lower figure simply represents a slower rate of expansion.

European markets will be tuned into Greece, as its Parliament addresses an austerity package. The Asia-Pacific region will walk on eggshells Monday, as the U.S. and Japan hold biennial joint military exercises amidst tensions between Japan and China.

Markets in Russia and Venezuela are closed Monday, in case you are into Russian roulette, Colombian bowties and giving your money away to crooked governments. As for shares trading in the good old USA, Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Nissan (OTC: NSANY) will report earnings results. Look for similar news from the likes of Express Scripts (Nasdaq: ESRX), Sysco (NYSE: SYY), XL Group (NYSE: XL), Humana (NYSE: HUM), Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK), Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED), CF Industries (NYSE: CF), Entergy (NYSE: ETR), EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), Integrys Energy Group (NYSE: TEG), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), Southern Company (NYSE: SO) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC).

Tuesday
It’s all about the election Tuesday, and with just the regular weekly chain store sales data on the economic slate, the market will simply speculate about the political results. It’s our view here that a market rally will follow a Mitt Romney triumph this week.

After the prior day’s austerity decision in Parliament, Greek unions have a general strike scheduled for Tuesday. You can expect it to get nasty if a new round of austerity gets the okay. In fact, the disruptive political coalition should gain support if Greece continues to load its citizens with austerity as it struggles through economic depression. Enough is enough already.

This week’s chain store sales reports will undoubtedly be disrupted by the Hurricane Sandy Frankenstorm which struck through the period. Last week’s data covering the period ending October 27, showed sales only inched higher by 0.5% week-to-week. The year-over-year pace slipped to 2.7%, from 2.9% rate seen the week before. Redbook showed an increase in the yearly pace to 1.8%, up from 1.3% the week before. Sales have hit stall speed after slowing dramatically over the last several months, so we’ll want to keep a close eye on activity as the critical holiday season starts in a few weeks.

The earnings beat highlights reports from Computer Sciences (NYSE: CSC), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), Denbury Resources (NYSE: DNR), DirecTV (NYSE: DTV), Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA), Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR), Expeditors International (Nasdaq: EXPR), Fossil (Nasdaq: FOSL), Frontier Communications (NYSE: FTR), Health Care REIT (NYSE: HCN), International Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE: IFF), Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO), Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC), News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWSA), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), Pepco Holdings (NYSE: POM), Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU), SCANA (NYSE: SCG), Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) and many more.

Wednesday
Before the market opens Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association will have again reported on mortgage applications. Last week’s report covering the period ending October 26 marked a 4.8% decrease in the MBA’s Market Composite Index. The stall in mortgage applications mostly reflected increases in effective mortgage rates across the mortgage loan spectrum. This week’s data will be inclusive of Hurricane Sandy, and while the MBA adjusts for seasonal impacts, it is typically imperfect in doing so. In fact, every weekly data point should be off its mark due to the storm, and look for skews to October and November economic data because of it as well. Indeed, we speculated last week that Hurricane Sandy could very well act as a catalyst for recession.

The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly Petroleum Status Report on Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET. The last report covering the period ending October 26 showed petroleum inventory decreased by 2.0 million barrels, though they remained above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventory increased by 0.9 million barrels last week, and is in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Certainly the impact of the hurricane on refinery operations weighed against the effort here, but that is expected to be resolved quickly as there was no reported important damage (only disruption).

At 3:00 PM ET, the Federal Reserve will report on the monthly change in consumer credit. Credit has been expanding since reaching its lowest depths in comparison to income in the summer of 2010. However, more recently its rate of expansion has been more tempered than in earlier phases of recovery. Still, the total level of consumer credit outstanding has been continually growing since reaching those depths. For the month of September, which will be reported on Wednesday, economists see credit expanding by $10.2 billion at the consensus of a range of forecasts stretching from about $7 billion to $15 billion. In August, credit expanded by $18.1 billion. Non-revolving credit expanded by $13.9 billion, likely on the month’s strong vehicle sales but also due to student loans.

Investors will certainly be interested in the latest economic forecasts for the European Union and euro zone, which will be produced by the EU Commission Wednesday. We expect they will again be reduced, though forward periods should continue to reflect the hopeful reasoning of the group as always.

In corporate news, Tribune is seeking $1.4 billion in financing as it exits bankruptcy. Look for the offering of 15 million shares or so of Taylor & Martin Group at a price of $10 to $12. Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) is expected to discuss Solaris 11.1. Meeting with analysts and investors: Alcoa (NYSE: AA), AT&T (NYSE: T), AXA (CS.PA) and Ecolab (NYSE: ECL). We are looking for earnings news from AES (NYSE: AES), Becton Dickinson (NYSE: BDX), CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS), CenterPoint Energy (NYSE: CNP), CenturyLink (NYSE: CTL), Cognizant Technology (Nasdaq: CTSH), Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), Hospira (NYSE: HSP), Kraft Foods Group (Nasdaq: KRFT), Macy’s (NYSE: M), Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP), Monster Beverage (Nasdaq: MNST), Perrigo (Nasdaq: PRGO), Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU), Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), WellPoint (NYSE: WLP), Whole Foods Market (NYSE: WFM) and many more names.

Thursday
Despite after seeing economic forecasts likely reduced just a day prior, economists reportedly see the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) leaving rates steady through their Thursday monetary policy statements. That said, the latest ECB actions were quite reassuring to markets, and should be reiterated and reinforced.

Just a couple days after the U.S. democratic process, the communists in China will hold their Congress in order to appoint new leadership. Needless to say, markets will be on edge, but disruption would seem unlikely.

New International Trade data will be reported Thursday morning for the month of September. Economists expect the trade gap expanded to $45.4 billion, from $44.2 billion in August. Closer inspection of the trends shows that both export and import growth is near stalling on a year-to-year basis.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 3 should show significant disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy. Economists see the claims count at 370K on a seasonally adjusted basis, which would be up from the 363K reported the prior week. Last week’s report showed the four-week moving average for claims declined by 1,500 to 367,250.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is up for report at 9:45 AM ET. Last week’s report saw a slight deterioration in the index week-to-week, to -34.7. I’ll have more to say about consumer confidence shortly.

At 10:30 AM ET, the EIA will report on natural gas inventory. In the week ending October 26, net gas in storage increased by 65 Bcf, to a level 259 Bcf more than the 5-year average for this time of year.

At 8:00 PM, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard addresses a group at the 9th Annual Corporate Finance Conference.

Companies meeting with analysts and investors include Kellogg (NYSE: K), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) and Netgear (Nasdaq: NTGR). Look for earnings reports from CareFusion (NYSE: CFN), Dean Foods (NYSE: DF), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), FirstEnergy (NYSE: FE), International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT), Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS), Microchip Technology (Nasdaq: MCHP), Molycorp (NYSE: MCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA), PPL Corp. (NYSE: PPL), Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Windstream (NYSE: WIN) and more.

Friday
The day starts with news from China, as the nation releases reports on inflation, retail sales and industrial production. This matters to Americans, as activity in China is a barometer of demand in its export markets, including here in America.

OPEC will publish its Monthly Oil Market Report, which post election might offer new meaning. I expect to have more to say about this during the week.

The Import and Export Prices Report will reach the wire in the premarket Friday. Economists see import prices rising by 0.1% in October, following the 1.1% price increase in September. Export and import prices as indicated by this report have not offered issue of late, and so inflation concerns have been quieted by it and other data. I continue to have intense concern about price catalysts developing today that will make living quite difficult tomorrow, but that’s a discussion for another report.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported at 9:55 AM. Economists see the index improving to 83.3 in this latest report for November, up from 82.6. I certainly will soon talk about a recent catalyst I think has helped confidence higher of late.

Wholesale Trade data will be reported at 10:00 AM ET for the month of September. Economists see wholesale inventory rising by 0.3% this time around, versus the 0.5% increase reported last month. However, you’ll want to also note the change in wholesale trade sales in relation to the change in inventory for a better read of the situation. Also take note of price change.

Pinnacle West Capital (NYSE: PNW) will meet with analysts and investors Friday. The earnings schedule has news from Ameren (NYSE: AEE), Covidien (NYSE: COV), Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq: FWLT), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), Alliant Energy (NYSE: LNT), Apollo Global Management (NYSE: APO), Constellation Energy Partners (NYSE: CEP), EW Scripps (NYSE: SSP), Federal Signal (NYSE: FSS), Zhongpin (Nasdaq: HOGS) and more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.