Brexit Vote Delayed – Murder of Jo Cox a Cause for Introspection

Jo Cox’s murder in a politically charged environment is a cause for introspection for the United Kingdom. When political matters are abused by ambitious politicians who seek to lever the issue for publicity to their own selfish benefit, they often lead emotionally charged citizens to extreme actions, including murder. The death of a young woman serving as a representative of her country is unwarranted where voters will decide the matter. Yet, it happened, and now the opposing campaigns are calling off their efforts for at least Thursday and likely through the funeral. However, I think there’s a good chance U.K. Prime Minister Cameron will recognize the need for everyone to put things into perspective. While the destiny of the great nation is obviously hugely important, it’s not worth civil war, and so the rhetoric needs to come down a notch. And, perhaps for the good of the nation, the so-called Brexit vote itself needs to be delayed. It would prove meaningful for England and markets globally, but it will not bring Jo Cox back.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Brexit Vote Delay

The U.K. referendum to decide whether to remain or to leave the European Union has divided the Kingdom in two. The citizenry is so evenly divided that global financial markets are fluctuating like the ocean does between two opposing storms. Uber-investors like George Soros have issued all-out warnings and have gone to gold, driving up the price of mankind’s default currency substantially. Meanwhile, the values of the British pound and the euro have tumbled against other currencies due to the unknown fallout risk from the possible breakup. But then on Thursday, something happened that felt like a slap to the face of the entire civilized world.

Jo Cox, a young and vibrant MP for the opposing Labor Party, not to mention a mother of two, was shot by a 52 year-old man. Why? She died of her wounds within minutes of the tragic national wake up call. Now, today, the British are rethinking just how important this supposed critical vote really is. Is it worth killing one another over?

As a result of the murder, and announcements by the two campaigns that each would suspend their activities today and likely tomorrow, currencies, commodities and equities all reversed course sharply. It was a sign of how important a move would occur if Brexit were voted down, and it was also a sign of what might occur if the U.K. referendum is delayed. Stocks and oil will rip higher and gold will collapse.

It is now squarely on the shoulders of the leaders of the nation to call for national introspection. I hope to see Prime Minister Cameron address his nation with this somber tone and message, because the political fervor of the Brexit campaign is as guilty as the man who pulled the trigger for that poor young lady’s death. Every Britain, and every American now engaged in similarly polarizing rhetoric, should search their hearts now and apologize to one another for the division they allowed to flourish. May her memory be eternal and the lesson of her death be never forgotten.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. 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The Fed has Lost All Credibility

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approached an anxious market Wednesday that was afraid it might receive its due medicine, but the Fed gave us a lollipop instead. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as demanded by the frantic market, and lowered its forecasts for the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points this year. In December, just three months ago, that same Fed seemed steadfast in its endeavor to normalize monetary policy. The Fed is losing all credibility because of its unpredictability and its adventures in forecasting. Investors would likely do best in forecasting Fed actions by surveying the stock market and the Fed Funds Futures, not by listening to the Fed.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

No matter what the Fed Chair said about the possibility of more rate actions dependent on data, it seems highly unlikely to ever surprise investors in that manner. It seems the best indicator of Fed action may in fact be the stock market. If the market does well, expect a rate hike, and if it does poorly, look for the bank to back off and sound soft.

Furthermore, the only true mandate of the Fed, if I may opine brutally honestly, may be its members’ job security and not the labor market nor inflation. Because if it is not so, then the Fed would not have produced such a dovish message Wednesday. And this endeavor in futility the Fed calls its dot-plot forecasts needs to be abandoned, because they are causing more confusion and volatility with it than they are producing transparency. The only thing they are allowing us to see more clearly is their own failings in forecasting. Seriously, how can your forecast change so dramatically in a period of three months unless it is completely unreliable?

Somehow, I remember back in December determining never to attempt to predict what the Fed will say or do again. I think I’ve done that many a Fed day. And yet, somehow, here I am, having expected the Fed to hold to its course and instead finding it completely undermining everything it forced me to swallow last time around. You know what they say about “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” Well, shame on me then.

This Fed seems destined to miss the uptick in inflation until it is too late, and having to raise rates in 50 basis point increments or more someday soon, and truly destabilizing equity markets and the economy in the process.

In December, when it seemed the Fed should not raise interest rates, it did so. Today, we all expected the Fed to pause, but we also expected the bank to sternly hold to its trajectory. But this central bank feels more like a paranoid schizophrenic than a stable banker and it has lost all credibility.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only. Article should interest investors in SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX), PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish (NYSE: UUP), United States Oil (NYSE: USO), Alaska Pacific Bankshares (OTC: AKPB.OB), Allied First Bancorp (OTC: AFBA.OB), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), AMB Financial (OTC: AMFC.OB), Ameriana Bancorp (NasdaqCM: ASBI), Anchor Bancorp Wisconsin (Nasdaq: ABCW), Bancorp of New Jersey (AMEX: BKJ), Bank Mutual (Nasdaq: BKMU), BankAtlantic (NYSE: BBX), BankFinancial (Nasdaq: BFIN), Banner (Nasdaq: BANR), BCSB Bancorp (Nasdaq: BCSB), Beacon Federal (Nasdaq: BFED), Berkshire Hills (Nasdaq: BHLB), Blackhawk Bancorp (OTC: BHWB.OB), Blue River Bancshares (OTC: BRBI.OB), Bofi (Nasdaq: BOFI), Broadway Financial (Nasdaq: BYFC), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Brooklyn Federal (Nasdaq: BFSB), Camco Financial (Nasdaq: CAFI), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Carver (Nasdaq: CARV), Cecil Bancorp (OTC: CECB.OB), Center Financial (Nasdaq: CLFC), Central Federal (Nasdaq: CFBK), Chicopee (Nasdaq: CBNK), Citizens South (Nasdaq: CSBC), CKF Bancorp (OTC: CKFB.OB), Clarkston Financial (OTC: CKFC.OB), Clifton Savings (Nasdaq: CSBK), Close Brothers (OTC: CBGPY.PK), Columbia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Consumers (OTC: CBKM.OB), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Enterprise (Nasdaq: EBTC), ESB Financial (Nasdaq: ESBF), ESSA Bancorp (Nasdaq: ESSA), Eureka Financial (OTC: EKFC.OB), FedFirst Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFCO), FFD Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFDF), FFW (OTC: FFWC.OB), First Bancorp of Indiana (OTC: FBPI.OB), First Bancshares (Nasdaq: FBSI), First Capital (Nasdaq: FCAP), First Clover Leaf (Nasdaq: FCLF), First Defiance (Nasdaq: FDEF), First Federal Bancshares of Arkansas (Nasdaq: FFBH), First Financial Holdings (Nasdaq: FFCH), First Independence (OTC: FFSL.OB), First Investors Fin’l Services (OTC: FIFS.PK), First Niagara (Nasdaq: FNFG), First Robinson (OTC: FRFC.OB), First Security Group (Nasdaq: FSGID), First South (Nasdaq: FSBK), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Flatbush Federal (OTC: FLTB.OB), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Greene County (Nasdaq: GCBC), HF Financial (Nasdaq: HFFC), HMN Fin’l (Nasdaq: HMNF), Home Bancorp (Nasdaq: HBCP), Home Federal (Nasdaq: HOME), HopFed (Nasdaq: HFBC), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), Indiana Community (Nasdaq: INCB), Investors Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Jacksonville Bancorp (Nasdaq: JXSB), Jefferson Bancshares (Nasdaq: JFBI), Kaiser Federal (Nasdaq: KFFG), Kearny Fin’l (Nasdaq: KRNY), Kentucky First Federal (Nasdaq: KFFB), Lake Shore Bancorp (Nasdaq: LSBK), Louisiana Bancorp (Nasdaq: LABC), LSB Fin’l (Nasdaq: LSBI), Malvern Federal (Nasdaq: MLVF), Meridian Interstate (Nasdaq: EBSB), Meta Fin’l (Nasdaq: CASH), NASB Fin’l (Nasdaq: NASB), Naugatuck Valley (Nasdaq: NVSL), New England Bancshares (Nasdaq: NEBS), New Hampshire Thrift (Nasdaq: NHTB), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), North Central Bancshares (Nasdaq: FFFD), Northeast Community (Nasdaq: NECB), Northwest Bancshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), OceanFirst (Nasdaq: OCFC), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Oneida (Nasdaq: ONFC), Park Bancorp (Nasdaq: PFED), Parkvale Fin’l (Nasdaq: PVSA), Pathfinder Bancorp (Nasdaq: PBHC), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), Provident Community (Nasdaq: PCBS), Provident Fin’l (Nasdaq: PROV), Provident Fin’l Services (NYSE: PFS), Provident New York (Nasdaq: PBNY), Prudential Bancorp of PA (Nasdaq: PBIP), PSB Holding (Nasdaq: PSBH), Pulaski Fin’l (Nasdaq: PULB), PVF Capital (Nasdaq: PVFC), QC Holding (Nasdaq: QCCO), River Valley Bancorp (Nasdaq: RIVR), Riverview Bancorp (Nasdaq: RVSB), Roma Fin’l (Nasdaq: ROMA), Salisbury Bancorp (AMEX: SAL), SI Financial (Nasdaq: SIFI), Southern Missouri (Nasdaq: SMBC), Sterling Fin’l (Nasdaq: STSA), Teche Holding (AMEX: TSH), TF Fin’l (Nasdaq: THRD), Timberland Bancorp (Nasdaq: TSBK), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBA), United Community Fin’l (Nasdaq: UCFC), United Fin’l Bancorp (Nasdaq: UBNK), Valley Fin’l (Nasdaq: VYFC), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Waterstone Fin’l (Nasdaq: WSBF), Wayne Savings (Nasdaq: WAYN), WSB Holdings (Nasdaq: WSB) and WVS Financial (Nasdaq: WVFC).