Mayday!!! Mayday!!!

Wednesday’s market wire has investors sounding the alarm, and ironically, on this May Day, they are calling out mayday!!! May Day of course drove austerity squeezed labor unions to the street today, setting fires across Europe and elsewhere. In the U.S., being somewhat separated from the realities of Europe, Americans still have their own concerns today. Economic data continues to show a slowing U.S. economy, and finally popular opinion is turning toward our argument of the last month or so. It appears nearly certain that selling in May and going away will work for equity investors again this year. Through noon, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) is down 0.4% while the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) is off 0.2%.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Economic Events

It’s Fed day, with the FOMC Monetary Policy Statement due for report at 2:00 PM ET. Economists and yours truly expect no change in monetary policy. Investors will turn their attention to any change in wording that might indicate the Fed’s forward path and timeline. The quarterly Treasury Refunding Announcement is due today as well. The Treasury Department will announce its funding needs and plans for the next several months. An SEC advisory panel will hold a meeting to discuss topics about small and emerging companies.

ADP’s Private Employment Report for April showed private nonfarm payrolls increased by 119K, versus economists’ consensus expectations for an increase of 155K. The result was short of expectations and also deeply short of the prior month’s 131K estimate (revised from 158K). Heading into this data point, economists had expected private nonfarm payrolls, as reported by the government on Friday, to show an increase of 175K jobs, versus the 95K reported last month.

We have two manufacturing indicators on the day’s schedule, with the Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index reported this morning. The PMI Manufacturing Index fell to a mark of 52.1 in April, against economists’ expectations for the metric to stick at 52.0, after its Flash reading at that mark, which was down from 54.6 at the end of March. The result was slightly better than expectations, but still reflects a slowing pace of growth for U.S. manufacturing.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published its Manufacturing Report on Business for the month of April this morning. The index fell to 50.7, short of economists’ views for a mark of 51.0, and down from 51.3 the month before. FYI – that reading marked a deep drop from February’s reading of 54.2, so the data was greatly disappointing to investors hoping for U.S. economic growth this year. The signs of issue are mounting, getting worse, and getting harder to ignore.

Construction Spending contracted in March by 1.7%, versus expectations for expansion of 0.6%. The miss also matched poorly against the prior month’s revised higher growth of 1.5% (from 1.2%). While construction spending has been growing regularly for some time now, over the last four months, the pace is clearly showing a slowing of it.

The latest mortgage activity data arrives from the Mortgage Bankers Association Wednesday before the market open. This week’s report covering the period ending April 26 showed mortgage applications increased by 1.8%. Applications tied to the purchases of homes decreased by 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Refinance Index increased by 3.0%, as effective interest rates mostly decreased in the period.

Commodity Markets (11:00 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.1%
Brent Crude	-0.1%
RBOB Gasoline	-0.1%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-0.4%
Gold Spot	-2.2%
Silver Spot	-4.2%
COMEX Copper	+0.5%
CBOT Corn	-0.8%
CBOT Wheat	-1.6%
CBOT Soybeans	-2.3%
ICE Sugar	+0.2%
ICE Cocoa	+1.8%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-2.3%
CME Live Cattle	+0.5%

The EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report showed crude oil inventory increased by 6.7 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventory decreased by 1.8 million barrels and fell into the middle of the average range for this time of year.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	12:00 PM	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	+0.01%	NIKKEI 225	-0.4%
German DAX	+0.5%	Hang Seng	+0.7%
CAC 40	-0.3%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.5%
FTSE 100	+0.3%	Korean KOSPI	+1.2%
Greek ASE	-0.8%	BSE India SENSEX	+0.6%

May Day means markets across the world will be closed, including in Hong Kong, Brazil, Germany and Russia, but not in the U.S. As you can imagine, labor union protests and general protests have set fires across hot spots of economic issue and where austerity is squeezing populations.

Corporate Events

Automakers are reporting Monthly Motor Vehicle Sales for the month of April today. Economists expect the annual pace of domestic vehicle sales ran at 12.0 million in April, down from 12.1 million in March. Total vehicle sales are expected to have matched last month’s 15.3 million pace. Ford’s (NYSE: F) sales jumped 18% in April, while GM’s (NYSE: GM) U.S. sales rose 11%.

The Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS) Retail and Consumer Discretionary Conference offers presentations by Dunkin’ Brands (Nasdaq: DNKN) and Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) Wednesday. BB&T (NYSE: BBT) and DTE Energy (NYSE: DTE) have investor meetings scheduled today. Kodak expects a bankruptcy court to allow it to sell off some assets.

The EPS schedule highlights reports from Facebook (NYSE: FB), Acadia Healthcare (Nasdaq: ACHC), ADT Corp. (NYSE: ADT), Alliance Healthcare (NYSE: AIQ), AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB), Allstate (NYSE: ALL), American Tower (NYSE: AMT), Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Atmel (Nasdaq: ATML), Atmos Energy (NYSE: ATO), Baltic Trading (Nasdaq: BALT), Brookdale Senior Living (NYSE: BKD), CACI Int’l (Nasdaq: CACI), Cal Dive Int’l (NYSE: DVR), CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS), Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), Clean Harbors (NYSE: CLH), Cohu (Nasdaq: COHU), Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) (NYSE: CCV), Con-Way (NYSE: CNW), Covance (NYSE: CVD), Coventry Health (NYSE: CVH), Delphi Automotive (Nasdaq: DLPH), Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), Eagle Rock Energy (Nasdaq: EROC), Edgewater Technology (Nasdaq: EDGW), Education Management (Nasdaq: EDMC), El Paso Electric (NYSE: EE), Energizer (NYSE: ENR), Exelon (NYSE: EXC), Expeditors Int’l (Nasdaq: EXPD), FormFactor (Nasdaq: FORM), Freightcar America (Nasdaq: RAIL), Garmin (Nasdaq: GRMN), Genco (NYSE: GNK), Haemonetics (NYSE: HAE), Hornbeck Offshore (NYSE: HOS), Hospira (NYSE: HSP), Humana (NYSE: HUM), Hyatt Hotels (NYSE: H), Imation (NYSE: IMN), Integrys Energy (NYSE: TEG), Intercontintental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM), James River Coal (Nasdaq: JRCC), JDS Uniphase (Nasdaq: JDSU), KAR Auction (NYSE: KAR), Kindred Healthcare (NYSE: KND), KKR Financial (NYSE: KFN), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), LifeLock (Nasdaq: LOCK), Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC), Marriott International (NYSE: MAR), MasterCard (NYSE: MA), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Metlife (NYSE: MET), MonoType Imaging (Nasdaq: TYPE), Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR), NACCO Industries (NYSE: NC), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), Orient Express Hotels (NYSE: OEH), PHH Corp. (NYSE: PHH), Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), Portland General Electric (NYSE: POR), Prudential (NYSE: PRU), Quality Distribution (Nasdaq: QLTY), Radian Group (NYSE: RDN), RealNetworks (Nasdaq: RNWK), Realogy (Nasdaq: RLGY), Renewable Energy (Nasdaq: REGI), Roadrunner Transportation (Nasdaq: RRTS), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Seagate (NYSE: STX), Sealed Air (NYSE: SEE), Shutterfly (Nasdaq: SFLY), Speedway Motorsports (NYSE: TRK), Suntech Power (NYSE: STP), Tesoro (NYSE: TSO), The Boston Beer Co. (NYSE: SAM), The Clorox (NYSE: CLX), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Unum (NYSE: UNM), Viacom (Nasdaq: VIAB), Visa (NYSE: V), Vonage (NYSE: VG) and Yelp (Nasdaq: YELP).

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