I Told You So!!!

No reader of Wall Street Greek should be surprised today, because we warned investors that economists’ and Fed forecasts of GDP were grossly in error. Today, the Q1 GDP result proved short of expectations, and I expect this will mark a turn in trading for stocks. In Q1, stocks rose in double-digits; in April, we’re about unchanged or fractionally higher; in May, we will head lower as the truth about this economy begins to sink in. All I can say is I told you so. Tell your friends about us, because we’ve been correct far too often for far too long to continue to fly so far below the radar.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Economic Events

First Quarter GDP will be reported for the first time at 8:30 AM ET. Economists’ expectations may be overstated and mislead there by the Federal Reserve and its recent economic forecasts. After reviewing the March update of the Fed forecasts, we noted that the Fed’s Math Just Doesn’t Add Up. You might also enjoy our more cynical blog discussion on the topic here – The Fed’s Funny Math. Economists are still looking for about the same growth that the Fed is, with the Q1 consensus forecast set for growth of 3.1%. That would compare against the fourth quarter of 2012 growth of just 0.4%. While economic activity did pick up at the start of the year, it was mostly on hope and prayers and not substantial support from the U.S. government, American consumers, or from international demand. The reality is that the payroll tax break expiration and the Sequester spending cuts have had a meaningful impact upon our economy, along with the heavy weight of Europe. I’m looking for a gross failure this year with regard to economists’ expectations and what reality will unfold. The range of economist expectations extends from 2.3% growth to 3.3% for Q1.

At 9:55 AM, catch the Reuters / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. When last reported, this index marked a precipitous decline in the consumer mood. I believe the mood changed for the worse after high expectations were built following the U.S. government stumble through the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff issues; those expectations were met by the reality of higher taxes in a still vulnerable economy. This latest reading is expected to show the index at 73.0, up slightly from the recent reading of 72.3. See the bottom of this article for an important economic discussion on this consumer topic.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	9:20 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	-0.7%	NIKKEI 225	-0.3%
German DAX	-0.3%	Hang Seng	+0.6%
CAC 40	-0.6%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.1%
FTSE 100	-0.4%	Korean KOSPI	-0.4%
Greek ASE	-0.5%	BSE India SENSEX	-0.6%

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to release its semi-annual forecast on economic growth and consumer price trends on Friday.

Commodity Markets (9:30 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.5%
Brent Crude	-0.4%
RBOB Gasoline	-0.5%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.1%
Gold Spot	+0.1%
Silver Spot	-1.0%
COMEX Copper	-0.8%
CBOT Corn	-0.8%
CBOT Wheat	-1.0%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.4%
ICE Sugar	+0.1%
ICE Cocoa	0.00%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-1.1%
CME Live Cattle	+0.0%

Corporate Events

The corporate wire has the earnings of Tyco International (NYSE: TYC), Covidien (NYSE: COV), Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Aon (NYSE: AON), Goodyear (NYSE: GT), AbbVie (Nasdaq: ABBV), ACCO Brands (Nasdaq: ACCO), Alliance Holdings (Nasdaq: AHGP), Alliance Resource Partners (Nasdaq: ARLP), Altra Holdings (Nasdaq: AIMC), Amcol Int’l (NYSE: ACO), American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP), Autoliv (NYSE: ALV), Barnes Group (NYSE: B), Beasley Broadcast Group (Nasdaq: BBGI), Berry Petroleum (NYSE: BRY), Bridgford Foods (Nasdaq: BRID), Bryn Mawr Bank (Nasdaq: BMTC), Burger King Worldwide (NYSE: BKW), Camelot Info (NYSE: CIS), Central Pacific Fin’l (NYSE: CPF), Cobra Electronics (Nasdaq: COBR), Community Bankers Trust (Nasdaq: ESXB), Corporate Office Properties (NYSE: OFC), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Digital Realty Trust (NYSE: DLR), Dresser-Rand (NYSE: DRC), DTE Energy (NYSE: DTE), First Financial (Nasdaq: THFF), First United (Nasdaq: FUNC), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), Gardner Denver (NYSE: GDI), GNC Holdings (NYSE: GNC), HMS Holdings (Nasdaq: HMSY), Immunogen (Nasdaq: IMGN), iParty (NYSE: IPT), Itron (Nasdaq: ITRI), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), LifePoint Hospitals (Nasdaq: LPNT), LyondellBasell (NYSE: LYB), Maxwell Technologies (Nasdaq: MXWL), Medical Properties Trust (NYSE: MPW), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Oppenheimer Holdings (NYSE: OPY), Provident Financial Services (NYSE: PFS), Saia (Nasdaq: SAIA), SCBT Financial (Nasdaq: SCBT), Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG), Sterling Bancorp (NYSE: STL), Tompkins Financial (NYSE: TMP), Ventas (NYSE: VTR), VF Corp. (NYSE: VFC), Viad (NYSE: VVI), Westmoreland Coal (NYSE: WLB), WisdomTree Investments (Nasdaq: WETF) and more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.