Tuesday – China & European Dismay with Apple on the Way

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) reports earnings today! Unfortunately, the news we have all been waiting for will not arrive until the close of trading. For now, we are left dealing with weak economic data out of both China and Europe. Given the global importance of each of those two economies and their manufacturing and consumer sectors, U.S. investors should give way today. Though, for now, investors are trading in a hopeful manner on the possibility that the ECB might change its attitude towards monetary and fiscal policy. Don’t bet on it! Perhaps only Apple can save the day, but it’s a coin flip, given what the company is expected to say versus what it might say.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:07 AM	ASIA/PACIFIC	CLOSE
EURO STOXX 50	+2.2%	NIKKEI 225	-0.3%
German DAX	+1.5%	Hang Seng	-1.1%
CAC 40	+2.6%	S&P/ASX 200	+1.0%
FTSE 100	+1.3%	Korean KOSPI	-0.4%
Greek ASE	+0.01%	BSE India SENSEX	+0.1%

Shares declined in China today, when the critical maker of things reported slower growth in its manufacturing sector. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI collapsed to a two-month low of 50.5 in April, down from 51.6 in March. Considering that a mark of 50.0 delineates between expansion and contraction, this is critical news about the state of global demand for goods made out of China. It’s also bad for those selling into China’s expansion and its expanding middle class. It’s the latest strong point indicating the global economy is slipping again.

Euro-zone services and factory output contracted in April, marking the 15th consecutive month of segment recession. The Purchasing Managers Index data was really lousy out of Europe any way you look at it. Germany slipped, with its composite index and general data falling deeper into contraction territory. France improved, but only in the pace of its miserable contraction. This is really bad economic news for both America and the global market. Yet, stocks were significantly higher across Europe today because of hope that more bad news might lead the Europeans away from austerity and towards expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. Please, don’t catch a falling long sword here though, cause Europeans be stubborn.

PMI Index	April Level	Previous
Flash Eurozone Composite Output	46.5	46.5
Flash Eurozone Services	46.6	46.4
Flash Eurozone Manufacturing	46.5	46.8
F E Manufacturing Output	46.3	46.7
Flash Germany Composite Output	48.8	50.6
Flash France Composite Output	44.2	41.9

Economic Reports

The weekly retail same-store sales data comes first Tuesday for the week ended April 20. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed a week-to-week sales decrease of 1.1%, versus the 0.7% increase the week before. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 2.0%, versus the 2.1% increase in the prior week. The data may be affected by the impact of Boston being essentially shut down in the period.

Just before 9:00 AM ET, catch the Markit Economics PMI Manufacturing Index (Flash). We just noted recent weakness in manufacturing data seems to be spreading (see the bottom of this report). Thus, this report could confirm issue or offer a point of contention. Economists are forecasting just a slight moderation in this data point, with the index seen falling to 54.2 in April, from 54.6 at the end of March. The trend for this data point is reflecting deterioration, falling from 54.9 at mid-month in March.

A second manufacturing data point arrives at 10:00 AM when the Richmond Fed provides its latest Manufacturing Index. This report for the month of April is expected to show the index held steady at a mark of 3.0.

Two important housing data points find the wire on Tuesday, with the New Home Sales Report and the FHFA House Price Index due. Investors can look for the New Home Sales data for March at 10:00 AM. Economists expect the annual pace of sales to have edged up a bit to a pace of 419K in March, from 411K in February. The FHFA House Price Index is expected to show prices rose by 0.7% in February, which would be better than January’s increase of 0.6%. The trend here has been one of accelerating price rise, with December showing an increase of 0.5%.

The Senate Banking Committee is hearing from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as it provides its Semi-Annual Report to Congress.

Commodity Markets (8:07 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.8%
Brent Crude	-0.7%
RBOB Gasoline	-1.2%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.1%
Gold Spot	-0.3%
Silver Spot	-1.9%
COMEX Copper	-1.3%
CBOT Corn	-0.6%
CBOT Wheat	-1.1%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.1%
ICE Sugar	-0.1%
ICE Cocoa	+0.8%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	Unchanged
CME Live Cattle	+0.0%

The energy sector is lower today because of the lousy economic data out of China and Europe. I would continue to sell the energy complex here; though the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) is actually higher in the premarket. I suppose this is also on the hope of central bank action; it’s a false hope though – sell energy.

Foreign Ministers of NATO nations are meeting on this day.

Corporate Events

In corporate news, it’s put up or shut up time for Apple (AAPL) as it reports earnings after not having had anything helpful to say for several months now. Publicis Group (OTC: PUBGY.PK) is meeting with investors, and Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is giving a company tour. Patriot Coal is in bankruptcy court.

Look for earnings news from Apple, Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN), Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR), E.I. du Pont (NYSE: DD), Forest Laboratories (NYSE: FRX), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Gannett (NYSE: GCI), A. O. Smith (NYSE: AOS), Accuride (NYSE: ACW), Air Products & Chemicals (NYSE: APD), AK Steel (NYSE: AKS), Alliance Fiber Optic (Nasdaq: AFOP), AMAG Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMAG), AmSurg (Nasdaq: AMSG), Anaren (Nasdaq: ANEN), Anixter Int’l (NYSE: AXE), Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI), ARM Holdings (Nasdaq: ARMH), Astec Industries (Nasdaq: ASTE), AT&T (NYSE: T), Brinker Int’l (NYSE: EAT), Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM), C.R. Bard (NYSE: BCR), Capella Education (Nasdaq: CPLA), Centene (NYSE: CNC), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Coach (NYSE: COH), Community Bank System (NYSE: CBU), Cree (Nasdaq: CREE), CTS (NYSE: CTS), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), DeVry (NYSE: DV), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS), Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW), Entegris (Nasdaq: ENTG), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Everest Re (NYSE: RE), Exactech (Nasdaq: EXAC), F.N.B. (NYSE: FNB), First Commonwealth (NYSE: FCF), FirstMerit (Nasdaq: FMER), Flagstar Bancorp (NYSE: FBC), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI), Gentex (Nasdaq: GNTX), Great Southern (Nasdaq: GSBC), Hanesbrands (NYSE: HBI), Harmonic (Nasdaq: HLIT), Hawaiian Holdings (NYSE: HA), HomeAway (Nasdaq: AWAY), Hudson Valley (NYSE: HVB), IDEXX Laboratories (Nasdaq: IDXX), II-VI (Nasdaq: IIVI), Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW), Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR), iRobot (Nasdaq: IRBT), Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: IRWD), ITC Holdings (NYSE: ITC), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Kaiser Aluminum (Nasdaq: KALU), Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE), Lexmark (NYSE: LXK), Manhattan Associates (Nasdaq: MANH), Mecox Lane (Nasdaq: MCOX), Merchants Bancshares (Nasdaq: MBVT), Molex (Nasdaq: MOLX), Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR), Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX), Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC), Oceaneering Int’l (NYSE: OII), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), Owens & Minor (NYSE: OMI), Owens-Illinois (NYSE: OI), PACCAR (Nasdaq: PCAR), Pacific Biosciences of California (Nasdaq: PACB), Panera Bread (Nasdaq: PNRA), Peapack-Gladstone (NYSE: PGC), Pentair (NYSE: PNR), Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII), Polycom (Nasdaq: PLCM), Pzena Investment Management (NYSE: PZN), Quidel (Nasdaq: QDEL), RadioShack (NYSE: RSH), Regions Financial (NYSE: RF), Renasant (Nasdaq: RNST), Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI), RF Micro Devices (Nasdaq: RFMD), Robert Half Int’l (NYSE: RHI), Rock-Tenn (NYSE: RKT), Rocky Brands (Nasdaq: RCKY), Ryder System (NYSE: R), S&T Bancorp (Nasdaq: STBA), Sensata (NYSE: ST), Signature Bank (Nasdaq: SBNY), Sonic Automotive (NYSE: SAH), Spark Networks (NYSE: LOV), Spectranetics (Nasdaq: SPNC), StanCorp Financial (NYSE: SFG), Super Micro Computer (Nasdaq: SMCI), Synovus (NYSE: SNV), Tal Education (NYSE: XRS), Torchmark (NYSE: TMK), Total System Services (NYSE: TSS), Trustmark (Nasdaq: TRMK), Twin Disc (Nasdaq: TWIN), Union First Market Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSH), Unisys (NYSE: UIS), US Airways (NYSE: LCC), USANA Health (Nasdaq: USNA), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Vascular Solutions (Nasdaq: VASC), VMware (NYSE: VMW), Vocus (Nasdaq: VOCS), Waters (NYSE: WAT), W.R. Berkley (NYSE: WRB), Waddell & Reed (NYSE: WDR), Xerox (NYSE: XRX), Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) and Zix Corp. (Nasdaq: ZIXI).

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