Tuesday – A Different Investment Perspective on the Day After

A day after the tragic events that unfolded at the Boston Marathon, the perspective has changed completely. Up until the moment of the explosions, capital was rushing into the dollar and dollar equivalents and suddenly out of stocks on failing economic data. Capital was also strangely moving out of gold and precious metal relatives like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV). However, today, we see stocks shaky especially in nations where terrorism would seem more likely – for instance in the U.K., Japan and Greece. Gold has found a bid as well, and is up sharply in the spot market today. The market remembers now why it ever coveted the safe haven security. With no follow up event occurring yesterday or so far this morning, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is indicating a higher open for stocks, up 0.7% premarket.

Economic Events

Housing Starts will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. This report covers new residential construction starts and also offers information on new permit issuance for construction. In this report for March, economists expect the annual pace of housing starts increased to 930K, from 917K in February. The economists’ consensus for permit issuance stands at 942K, which would be down from the prior month’s pace of 946K.

Following the recent reporting of the PPI, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due today at 8:30 AM ET. Economists see this measure of inflation unchanged for March. However, when excluding volatile food and energy prices, the Core CPI is expected to have grown at a 0.2% pace, matching the pace of the prior month.

Keeping with consumer info, look for the weekly retail same-store sales data in the premarket as well. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed a week-to-week sales increase of 0.7%, versus the 4.7% increase the week before. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 2.1%, versus the 1.9% increase in the prior week. This data was still skewed by Easter and Passover and should be discounted as such.

Industrial Production will be reported at 9:15 AM ET. The economists’ consensus sees industrial production higher by 0.2% in March, versus the 0.7% increase in February. Capacity Utilization is seen moderating to 78.3% in March, versus the 79.6% usage rate in February. Data has been softening in manufacturing, and this report could confirm that. Manufacturing production is seen increasing by just 0.1%, versus the 0.8% increase the month before.

Several Fed speakers are on the board for Tuesday, with Vice Chair Janet Yellen, Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke, New York Fed President William Dudley and Minneapolis Fed Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota all scheduled to speak in the afternoon.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:05 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	Close
EURO STOXX 50	-0.1%	NIKKEI 225	-0.4%
German DAX	-0.0%	Hang Seng	-0.5%
CAC 40	-0.1%	S&P/ASX 200	-0.3%
FTSE 100	-0.2%	Korean KOSPI	+0.1%
Greek ASE	-2.1%	BSE India SENSEX	+2.1%

Overseas, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is taking part in a debate on bank capital requirements and bonus compensation.

Commodity Markets (7:50 AM ET)

WTI Crude	-0.2%
Brent Crude	-0.7%
RBOB Gasoline	-0.0%
NYMEX Natural Gas	+0.3%
Gold Spot	+3.8%
Silver Spot	+4.9%
COMEX Copper	0.0%
CBOT Corn	-0.2%
CBOT Wheat	-0.4%
CBOT Soybeans	+0.7%
ICE Sugar	+1.0%
ICE Cocoa	+1.4%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	-1.2%
CME Live Cattle	+0.3%

Corporate Events

The House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing to discuss whether Dodd-Frank gives the government the right to break up financial institutions. The SEC is having a round table on how to make fixed income markets more transparent.

In corporate news, look for the annual shareholder meeting of Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK). The IPAA OGIS New York Conference brings presentation by Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) and Range Resources (NYSE: RRC). Look for earnings news from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), Comerica (NYSE: CMA), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) and W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), United Rentals (NYSE: URI), Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) and others.

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