Tuesday’s Market – Data Should Disturb Upon Digestion

Stock futures were looking modestly higher just before 9:00 AM ET, but data out of the U.S. may cost us as it is digested. A survey of small businessmen turned decidedly downward in April and reflects poorly on the state of affairs on Main Street. Data from China showed moderate price change, indicating the nation’s central bank may not have to be too aggressive in efforts to contain inflation as the economy grows. However, closer inspection should lead to concern about the sustainability of the latest surge in China given weakness in Europe and nascent issues in the U.S. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: VOO) could give back yesterday's gains as the market is reminded of its latest issues.

Overseas Markets

EUROPE	8:30 AM ET	ASIA/PACIFIC	8:30 AM
EURO STOXX 50	+0.4%	NIKKEI 225	Unchanged
German DAX	+0.1%	Hang Seng	+0.7%
CAC 40	+0.3%	S&P/ASX 200	+1.5%
FTSE 100	+0.4%	Korean KOSPI	+0.1%
Greek ASE	+5.0%	BSE India SENSEX	-1.1%

China reported on March price change at the consumer and producer levels Tuesday. China’s Consumer Price Index increased 2.1% over the prior year period in March. It was less than was expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswire. It was also markedly lower than February’s 3.2% price increase. Services prices increased 3.1% and food prices rose 2.7%. The Producer Price Index fell 1.9%, roughly in line with economists’ views for a 2.0% decline and more than February’s drop of 1.6%. The mild price change poses a question about the strength of a nascent Chinese economic surge.

Economic Reports

The National Federation of Small Business (NFIB) reported its Small Business Optimism Index this morning. After three months of modest gains, the measure of business sentiment dropped 1.3 percentage points in April, to 89.5. The economists’ consensus expectation for April was for a slight deterioration to a mark of 90.6, from 90.8 previously. The absolute value of this measure reflects general discontent among small businessmen. Of the 10 index components, 6 declined, including labor market indicators, inventory investment plans and sales expectations. This looks to be yet another indicator of economic issue, among many now. Indeed, the economic message is getting harder to ignore.

The regular retail same-store sales data was released in the premarket as well. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed a week-to-week sales increase of just 0.7% in the reported period, against the 4.7% gain the week before. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 2.1%, versus the 1.9% increase in the prior week. This data was impacted by Easter and should be discounted as such.

At 10:00 AM ET, look for the monthly Wholesale Trade Report. In this report for the month of February, economists are expecting just a 0.5% increase in wholesale inventories, against the 1.2% gain the month before. You’ll want to compare the month’s inventory growth to the change in sales for a more complete perspective.

Investors bothered by this month’s Employment Report will want to catch the latest JOLTS Survey Tuesday for news on job openings and labor turnover.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speaks Tuesday, giving an address he’s entitled, “Ending Too Big to Fail is Going to be Hard Work,” at the Global Society of Fellows meeting at the University of Richmond.

Commodity Markets (8:15 AM ET)

WTI Crude	+0.2%
Brent Crude	+0.6%
RBOB Gasoline	+0.9%
NYMEX Natural Gas	-0.3%
Gold Spot	+0.2%
Silver Spot	+0.4%
COMEX Copper	+1.1%
CBOT Corn	+0.5%
CBOT Wheat	-0.5%
CBOT Soybeans	-0.1%
ICE Sugar	-0.4%
ICE Cocoa	-0.1%
ICE Orange Juice Conc.	+0.4%
CME Live Cattle	+0.1%

Corporate Events

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) fired CEO Ron Johnson, a long overdue action after the man destroyed millions in market value with an aggressive and abrupt change to corporate strategy. The stock should recover from here if old strategies engaging customers with deal offers are immediately restored full force. We warned early that Johnson’s changes were Too Much Change Too Soon for J.C. Penney and we were right.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) kicked off earnings season with its report last night. The stock is down 1.0% in the premarket even after beating Wall Street expectations. An aluminum glut is hurting pricing, and issues in Europe are costing the company against its U.S. plane and auto industry demand.

Look for investor and analyst days at First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), Agrium (NYSE: AGU) and Coronado Biosciences (Nasdaq: CNDO). The Telsey Advisory Group Spring Conference brings presentations by Alliance Data (NYSE: ADS), Guess (NYSE: GES), Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN) and Pandora Media (NYSE: P). Advanced Energy Industries (Nasdaq: AEIS) has set time for a special announcement. Infoblox (Nasdaq: BLOX) is having a customer conference call. Look for earnings news from SeaChange International (Nasdaq: SEAC), Zep (NYSE: ZEP), American DG Energy (Nasdaq: ADGE), Chinacache International (Nasdaq: CCIH), PriceSmart (Nasdaq: PSMT) and Synergy Resources (Nasdaq: SYRG). The IPO wire has major homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home and Knot Offshore Partners coming to market.

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