Week Ahead – Earnings Season is Here
Chinese economic data will again play an important role for American stocks this week, after last week’s import data sent stocks celebrating. On Monday, China will publish GDP and retail sales data. I wonder if it’s not up to par, whether the market will reevaluate the gains it booked last week. We debunked the import data for you last week.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda talks about the economy Monday.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. The General Business Conditions Index has shown regional manufacturing expansion over recent months’. This month, economists see the index slipping slightly to 7.5, from 9.24.
The Treasury International Capital (TIC) Report for February reaches the wire at 9:00 AM ET. This report sheds light on foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities and helps to color the picture regarding the sanctity of the dollar, which I believe is a false faith.
The National Association of Homebuilders’ (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is due at 10:00 AM ET. This measure of the mood of homebuilders can be skewed by its inclusion of great numbers of smaller independent builders. In today’s market, where the large well-capitalized publicly traded builders have gobbled up market share from bankrupt and troubled smaller players, two very separate sets of opinions exist about the market. Economists are looking for a slight improvement in the HMI in April, to 45, from 44 in March. Readings above 50 indicate a mostly positive perspective of the housing market, and so you can see the issue for smaller builders has a voice here.
April 15 marks the deadline for Americans to file their taxes for 2012.
In corporate news, banks and credit card companies report master trust data for March. The IPAA OGIS New York Conference brings presentations by Approach Resources (Nasdaq: AREX) and Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO). Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE: TMO) is having a conference call to discuss its definitive agreement to acquire Life Technologies Corp. (Nasdaq: LIFE). Acorda Therapeutics (Nasdaq: ACOR) is having a conference call to discuss study findings for AMPYRA tablets (dalfampridine). Look for earnings news from Citigroup (NYSE: C), M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB), Concur Technologies (Nasdaq: CNQR), First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC), Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS) and many more.
Housing Starts will be reported at 8:30 AM ET. This report covers new residential construction starts and also offers information on new permit issuance for construction. In this report for March, economists expect the annual pace of housing starts increased to 930K, from 917K in February. The economists’ consensus for permit issuance stands at 942K, which would be down from the prior month’s pace of 946K.
Following the recent reporting of the PPI, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due today at 8:30 AM ET. Economists see this measure of inflation unchanged for March. However, when excluding volatile food and energy prices, the Core CPI is expected to have grown at a 0.2% pace, matching the pace of the prior month.
Keeping with consumer info, look for the weekly retail same-store sales data in the premarket as well. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed a week-to-week sales increase of 0.7%, versus the 4.7% increase the week before. On a year-to-year basis, sales were higher by 2.1%, versus the 1.9% increase in the prior week. This data was still skewed by Easter and Passover and should be discounted as such.
Industrial Production will be reported at 9:15 AM ET. The economists’ consensus sees industrial production higher by 0.2% in March, versus the 0.7% increase in February. Capacity Utilization is seen moderating to 78.3% in March, versus the 79.6% usage rate in February. Data has been softening in manufacturing, and this report could confirm that. Manufacturing production is seen increasing by just 0.1%, versus the 0.8% increase the month before.
Several Fed speakers are on the board for Tuesday, with Vice Chair Janet Yellen, Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke, New York Fed President William Dudley and Minneapolis Fed Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota all scheduled to speak in the afternoon.
Overseas, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is taking part in a debate on bank capital requirements and bonus compensation.
The House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing to discuss whether Dodd-Frank gives the government the right to break up financial institutions. The SEC is having a round table on how to make fixed income markets more transparent.
In corporate news, look for the annual shareholder meeting of Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK). The IPAA OGIS New York Conference brings presentation by Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). Look for earnings news from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), Comerica (NYSE: CMA), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) and W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW).
The latest mortgage activity data arrives from the Mortgage Bankers Association Wednesday before the market open. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 5 showed mortgage applications increased by 4.5%. Applications tied to the purchases of homes decreased 1.0%, while the Refinance Index increased by 6.0%. Interest rates fell in the period, but this data is often not perfectly reflective of the business environment around holidays. In this case, Easter and Passover added noise.
The Federal Reserve issues its Beige Book of regional economic activity at 2:00 PM ET. Several Fed speakers are on the board for Wednesday, with public appearances by Jeremy Stein, James Bullard and Eric Rosengren scheduled.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to release its Global Financial Stability report on systemic risks today.
Look for the EIA’s regular Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week’s report covering the week ending April 5 showed crude oil inventory increased by 0.3 million barrels, and remained well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventory increased by 1.7 million barrels and are at the upper limit of the average range.
In corporate news, there is an investor day event scheduled at The Gap (NYSE: GPS). In Bankruptcy Court, you’ll find Pinnacle Airlines (OTC: PNCLQ.PK) and Kodak (OTC: EKDKQ.PK). Intelsat is pricing 21.7 million shares at $21 to $25 a share today. Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is splitting its shares 4-for-1. The EPS schedule highlights reports from American Express (NYSE: AXP), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK), Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) and St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ).
There is just one report due before the market open Thursday. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due for report at 8:30. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 6 showed weekly claims fell by 42K, to 346K. The four-week moving average for jobless claims rose 3K to 358K. Economists see claims at about the same level this week.
After stabilizing recently, Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index, a weekly measure of the consumer mood, edged up 0.1 points last week, reaching a mark of -34.0. However, consumers are not in a good mood, as was evidenced by the recent drops seen in the Conference Board and University of Michigan monthly measures.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Business Outlook Survey measures the regional manufacturing mood. The report for the month of April is expected to show index improvement to a mark of 3.3, up from 2.0 in March.
The Conference Board will publish its monthly Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see this forward looking economic measure marking 0.2% improvement in March, which is a slower pace than February’s 0.5% increase.
Look for Fed speak Thursday from representatives Kocherlakota, Lacker and Bloom-Raskin. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is holding a press conference Thursday.
The EIA’s Natural Gas Report is due Thursday at 10:30 AM. Last week’s report covering the period ending April 5 showed working gas in storage declined by 14 Bcf. Stocks were 804 Bcf less than last year at this time and 66 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of year.
The corporate wire has the IPO of SeaWorld Entertainment, which will price 20 million shares between $24 and $27. Bankruptcy Court hosts Revel Resort and Casino, which is seeking a $40 million loan from J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). The EPS slate highlights presentations by Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG), Baxter International (NYSE: BAX), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) and Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq: FITB).
G-20 finance ministers and central bankers will gather in Washington D.C. for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank. The IMF will issue its World Economic Outlook. Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein is speaking at a symposium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The corporate wire has the earnings of McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), Honeywell (NYSE: HON), Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Laboratory Corp. of America (NYSE: LH) and State Street (NYSE: STT).
You might also enjoy some of our recent work including:
The Real Unemployment Rate & Its Economic Implications
H7N9 Bird Flu Strain Could Impact McDonald’s
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