Wall Street Greek: Weekly Jobless Claims Enthuse Stocks

Job Market

Weekly jobless claims improved further in the latest measured period, and likely without coincidence, the Dow Jones Industrials Average is up over 1.0% through morning trading.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: AA, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BA, NYSE: CAT, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: DD, NYSE: DIS, NYSE: HD, NYSE: HPQ, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: JNJ, NYSE: KFT, NYSE: KO, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: MRK, Nasdaq: MSFT, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: PG, NYSE: T, NYSE: TRV, NYSE: UTX, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: DE, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: CO, NYSE: FRO, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ

Weekly Jobless Claims Enthuse Stocks

Over recent months, we've highlighted the sensitivity of the market to weekly jobless claims data and the labor market generally. It was long ago understood that there existed a divide between economic recovery as defined by GDP and the economic situation as felt on Main Street. That has a lot to do with near double-digit unemployment and mid-teens under-employment, which lead to tempered spending and a shift in the outlets of spending toward the discount stores (NYSE: WMT, NYSE: DG, NYSE: FDO, Nasdaq: DLTR, Nasdaq: COST).

The market is having a good day today, which represents a change for recent times, and it likely has a lot to do with the day's economic data, starting with Weekly Jobless Claims. Unemployment Claims were reported for the March 12 period, and they were improved by 16,000, to a weekly rate of 385K.

Over recent months, as we approached the 400K threshold, the market grew increasingly enthusiastic. We now seem to have solidly breached that mark, and the continued improvement toward a level (about 300K) that supports reduction to the unemployment rate rightly serves to solidify stocks. Unemployment was reported at 8.9% in February, though we estimate it is closer to 9.4%. Under-employment remains in the mid-teens, though is improving as well.

The four-week moving average also highlights the trend, and shows a decrease of 7,000 claims this week, to a level of 386,250. This data offers something more bankable, as weekly rates fluctuate more readily on noise or irrelevant factors. The four-week moving average serves to weed out noise, and so clearly shows the improving and stock market enthusing trend.

Insured unemployment through the March 5 period improved by 80,000, to a level of 3.71 million after seasonal adjustment. Some 3.0% of the labor force fell into this pool, unchanged from the week prior. The unadjusted rate was 3.4%, down two-tenths of a percent from the prior week's measure. This rate was 4.1% a year ago. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs, including the extension programs, for the week ending Feb 26 was 8,953,610.

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, during the week ending Feb 26.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Feb. 26 were in Alaska (6.7 percent), Rhode Island (5.5), Montana (5.4), Pennsylvania (5.3), Idaho (5.1), Oregon (5.1), Puerto Rico (5.0), Wisconsin (4.9), New Jersey (4.8), and Connecticut (4.7).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 5 were in New York (+17,926), California (+13,388), Illinois (+4,514), Pennsylvania (+3,907), and Texas (+2,828), while the largest decreases were in Massachusetts (-2,482), Oregon (-1,680), Rhode Island (-1,120), Connecticut (-838), and Florida (-687).

Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). The day’s earnings included Deere (NYSE: DE), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), China Cord Blood (NYSE: CO) and Frontline (NYSE: FRO).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.