The Greek Not Impressed by Jobless Claims Improvement

Job Market

Another week, another solidly improved weekly initial jobless claims count. While that helped the Dow up 0.7% Thursday, it does not necessarily offer the best of news - says The Greek.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: AA, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BA, NYSE: CAT, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: DD, NYSE: DIS, NYSE: HD, NYSE: HPQ, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: JNJ, NYSE: KFT, NYSE: KO, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: MRK, Nasdaq: MSFT, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: PG, NYSE: T, NYSE: TRV, NYSE: UTX, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: DE, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: CO, NYSE: FRO, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ

The Greek Not Impressed by Jobless Claims Improvement

For the period ending March 19, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims offered mildly positive news, falling by 5,000, to 382K. The weekly flow has been slowly but steadily improving, and the four-week moving average shows exactly that, sliding by 1,500 this week, to 386,750.

For the period ending March 12, the insured unemployment rate matched the week just prior to it, at 3.0%. That ratio counted approximately 3.721 million people, a decrease of 2K. The four-week moving average here also shows improvement, with that count better by 28K, to 3.755 million. However, what matters more is the total number unemployed covered under all programs, including the unemployment insurance extension program. That tally measures a still hefty 8.766 million for the period ending March 5.

The improvement is welcomed, but the pace of it, along with the likelihood that general corporate hiring is still a cautious activity, remains a concern. The general economic view is that a pace of 300K new benefits filers allows for net job creation in the economy. At 380+, we are not yet qualifying.

While the unemployment rate has been reported improved over recent months, we’ve disputed the credibility of those reports, and last saw the rate at 9.4%, versus the government’s published 8.9%. We unfortunately expect the decrease in the workforce behind the government’s number is not due to reverse migration, but due to the despair of the long-term unemployed.

We worry that as gasoline prices and food prices rise, more than consumer spending decline threatens. With police layoffs a norm among municipalities, we expect crime rates will increase substantially and protesting on American soil will resemble some of what we’ve seen overseas. Yet, we thus far remain much better off here in America, since the cost of inflation has not yet dented our substantially higher average incomes.

FYI:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 5 were in Alaska (6.7 percent), Puerto Rico (5.1), Idaho (5.0), Montana (5.0), Rhode Island (5.0), Oregon (4.9), Pennsylvania (4.8), Wisconsin (4.8), New Jersey (4.6), and Connecticut (4.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 12 were in North Carolina (+930), Florida (+776), Oregon (+582), Puerto Rico (+509), and South Carolina (+484), while the largest decreases were in New York (-16,917), California (-5,490), Pennsylvania (-1,907), Massachusetts (-1,778), and Washington (-1,429).



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). The day’s earnings included Deere (NYSE: DE), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), China Cord Blood (NYSE: CO) and Frontline (NYSE: FRO).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.