Iran's Presidential Election

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As Iranians go to vote for their President, the world will be watching along with the Iranian nation to see who the winner will be.

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Iran's Presidential Election

A Revolution's Maturity or Precipice

Four men are running for President:

1. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - The incumbent and current president
2. Mir Hossein Mousavi - A member of Iran's Expediency Council and former Prime Minister
   
3. Mohsen Rezaei - A former Chief Commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and a founder of Imam Hossein University. The University has been linked to the rocket test center at Parchin. Rezaei has also been accused of masterminding the July 18th, 1994 Buenos Aires Jewish Cultural Center bombing.
4. Mahdi Karroubi - Former Parliament Speaker

The most familiar candidate is President Ahmadinejad, an arch conservative who is also favored by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Kahmeni. President Ahmadinejad has placed Iran at the forefront of international news by proceeding with nuclear energy development, rocket development, and calling for the destruction of Israel.

During the last days of the campaign, Ahmadinejad has accused his opponents (chiefly Mir Hossein Mousavi) of being agents of Israel, and of possibly countering the election results in the event of an Ahmadinejad victory. These accusations have drawn rebukes from Expediency Council Chairman (and former President) Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rasfanjani. Rasfanjani has publicly called upon Ayatollah Ali Kahmeni to rebuke Ahmadinejad. A "scolding" of sorts was issued by the Council of Guardians late Thursday afternoon.

Also on Thursday, the Islamic Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari threatened to "put down" any protests in the event mass demonstrations take place. Mass demonstrations are expected by the opposition (most notably Mousavi) in the event that Ahmadinejad wins the election. Jafari's assertion, if not accusation, is that the losing side will claim voting fraud.

Needless to say, the opposition has claimed that using the IRGC to put down demonstrations is a sign and threat that the arch conservatives will retain power at any means.

The election is commencing in an atmosphere of distrust, uncertainty and high tension. This isn't saying that all hell won't break loose after the election results are finalized, but whoever the winner is will face a nation with a number of issues. Among them are: a severely strained economy coupled with a high unemployment rate; an economy largely reliant on oil and gas; a contentious relationship with the outside world due to its ongoing nuclear programmes; and a population eager for change (nearly one half of Iran's population is under age 30).

If Ahmadinejad wins, not much will change vis-a-vis the international scene. Tests will continue on Iran's rockets and the nuclear programs. Domestically, Iran could be in for a rough ride, if his victory is by a close margin. Supporters of Mousavi will challenge the outcome, and that undoubtedly will be followed by demonstrations and clashes with the security forces. The legitimacy of the election and of the government will be in question. This could very well raise the possibility of dissension and infighting within the leadership of Iran, leading to a period of paralysis.

A sizable margin of victory for Ahmadinejad will leave doubters, but probably less social upheaval and political paralysis. Either way, a second Ahmadinejad term will leave Iran under the control of a very conservative, anti-western and strongly nationalist government. The world, and in particular, the U.S. and Russia will have to deal with an aspiring Persian Gulf power.

One item that must be kept in mind and remembered is that both Ahmadinejad and Mousavi have pledged to continue Iran's nuclear and rocket programmes. This is a reality that the world will have to deal with on June 13th, just as it did on June 11th.

A Mousavi victory might bring an opening with the west; that will depend on what support Mousavi receives from Ayatollah Khameni and the IRGC. It will also depend on how the world receives Mousavi. Mousavi will have multiple challenges, and will need to walk the proverbial fence between conservatives and pragmatists.

Regardless, Iran's next president will need to address domestic issues. The Iranian people are young, vibrant and ready to take their place in society. The President of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be the person and face of their future.


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