Wall Street Greek: Iran's New Hope - Space, the Next Frontier

By Daniel Salem Padovano - Global Affairs & Geopolitics:

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Iran's satellite, Omid (Hope) achieved low Earth orbit on February 2nd, 2009 and is scheduled to stay aloft for two months. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) lies in the region between 80 miles and 1,200 miles above Earth. The site of last Monday's launch was not disclosed, however, Iran has three launch facilities: at Emamshahr, Semnan (both in northeastern Iran) and at Qom in western Iran.

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One peculiarity of Iranian geography is that in order to attain a polar launch route, Iranian launch pathways all lead over Central Asia and eastern Russia (Siberia). This increases the chance of any potential glitches, lest a launch vehicle and/or a payload fail to achieve orbit and land on someones lawn. This also places any launch vector over areas where either Russian or American systems could attempt an intercept of an Iranian launch. There would only be about 5 to 7 minutes for a ground or sea based interception to be successful.

Most orbital space flights follow what is called a "Polar" flight path. This begins with a curved launch path from liftoff, curving northeastwards until orbit is reached. This allows the launch vehicle to use and follow the Earth's rotation and gravitation to achieve orbit efficiently. As all current launch facilities are in the northern hemisphere, launches traditionally follow an easterly or northeasterly trajectory.

The stated reasons for Iran's space program are so Iran can expand both its telephone communications and Internet access, and monitor underground seismic activity. Iran's stated goals are to increase all telephone communication access (both land line and cellular) from an estimated 22 million lines to 80 million lines. Internet access is planned to increase from 5.5 million lines to 35 million lines.

A second goal is for Iranian satellites to monitor seismic movements for potential earthquakes. Iran is situated on an active geological plate and is subject to numerous and often devastating earthquakes. There's no doubt that communications and monitoring capability could warn victims of an impending quake or speed rescue and recovery operations.

The Military Angle

Iranian scientists and engineers are intelligent, skilled and talented. This is something that most of the world tends to ignore or disavow. Although ostensibly for communications and seismic observation, it would be easy for Iran to develop a working GPS and military communications ability to better coordinate and see all battlefields. In military terms, this ability can easily place Iran at the forefront of military tactics. Any space based communications / ground monitoring system provides the launching state with "C4" capability; C4 being: command, communications, control and computers.

"A scary prospect is Iran having this ability for the start of the next Hamas-Israel-Hezbollah war, or during any Persian Gulf conflict."

The technology exists; all Iran needs to do is either buy the stuff or build / improvise on what they are building now, and then get it "up there". A scary prospect is Iran having this ability for the start of the next Hamas-Israel-Hezbollah war, or during any Persian Gulf conflict.

On the military front, Iran's immediate space aim may be to attain regional tactical superiority as opposed to being capable of launching a nuclear weapon via rocket (that is a secondary goal and probably a few years away). Iran's Shahab (Meteor)-3 launch vehicles are capable of reaching parts of southern Russia, western China and the Indian Ocean.

Monday's launch was carried out on what is believed to be either a Safir (Emissary or Ambassador) - 2 or 3 launch vehicle. The Safir is about 70 feet in length and 4 feet wide, and the making is similar to the American Redstone rocket. Redstone ushered in America's space era in 1958 with the launch of Explorer 1. The Safir-2 / 3 is a medium range ballistic missile with an 800 mile range. It is based on the North Korean No-dong 1 rocket, which in turn is a modified version of the Soviet era SS-4.

What is significant with this launch is that the rocket is a single-stage launch vehicle utilizing a liquid fuel propellant. Single-stage rockets afford a quicker time to orbit, and coupled with liquid propellant, also afford a more chemically stable fuel supply (less likely to ignite and vaporize the space craft).

Iranian rocket research is progressing and a Safir-3 may be the next launch vehicle. The Safir-3 is regarded as a version of Iran's longer range rockets, the Shahab series. The Shahab-3 has an estimated range of some 1,200 miles. The next version, the Shahab-4 is thought to have a range of some 4,000 miles, placing it in the inter-continental ballistic missile class (ICBM).

It is interesting to note that the Gulf States, while wealthy beyond measure, have not even attempted nor aspired to reach space. Yet, Iran which has many economic disadvantages has managed to become the twelfth space faring nation. Iraq was the first Islamic state to reach orbit (in 1989), however, the program never fully matured. Iran is now the sole Islamic state to achieve this stature and ability.

March 20 - 21 will be interesting, as that is Nowruz, the Persian New Year, and it is possible that another launch may occur then. Iran is planning several more launches prior to placing an official fully functioning communications satellite aloft at this same time next year. Next year's launch may feature a newer version of the Safir class, or quite possibly a Shahab class launch vehicle.

A manned space program is in the beginning stages with hopes of a manned space flight before 2020.