This Week: Groundhog Day Economic Replay

By The Greek - Economy & Markets

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This week's economic reports and earnings schedule should offer the same tone of dire data that last week produced, and the week before that... and the week before that... It's the financial equivalent of the Bill Murray film Groundhog Day, where he relives the same day over and over again. This horrific bear market and dreaded economic down-slide is getting monotonous. However, marking a bottom in a cyclical trough requires investors' overwhelmingly counting on a hopeless scenario. The question is, how do you mark bottom in a secular bear market? Does that occur when Warren Buffet trades his stocks in for food, water and guns?

The Week Ahead

Monday

Monday's schedule was covered separately this week and can be seen via this link.

Tuesday

Honda Motors (NYSE: HMC) reported January sales on Monday, but the majority of the industry will note results on Tuesday. The consensus of economists expects no change from December, with sales measuring 7.7 million. Ford (NYSE: F) recently laid off more folks, but indicated it would not need government aid. General Motors (NYSE: GM) may be another story though, and we'll get a sense of things on Tuesday...

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) publishes its regular Weekly Same-Store Sales Report in the pre-market. Last week, ICSC noted sales dropped off a cliff, diving 2.4% year-to-year. The nation's business activity was likely significantly impacted during the measured period by the well-watched inauguration, so this week's sales may actually improve slightly. However, judging by Macy's (NYSE: M) news on Monday, maybe not... The department store legend announced the cutting of 7K employees and its dividend to boot.

December's Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled for Wednesday release, and the Groundhog saw his shadow, so forget about the seasonal spring boom... We've another six weeks of housing winter in store, or months, or more. Bloomberg's consensus again sees more of the same doldrums for this index, forecasting a reading of 82.3 to match November's level. Recall that New Home Sales were absolutely missing in December, while Existing Sales picked up the slack. We're guessing some of those existing homes are not all that old.

Turn your C-SPAN on because a House Committee will discuss how to effectively stimulate bank lending. They might try solving the seemingly ageless and imposible Palestinian problem, as it could be easier to do. Overseas, Australia's central bank is expected to cut its key rate by a full percentage point.

The earnings schedule is heavy all week, but also look for Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) to move on Tuesday as the FDA will review one of its drugs targeted for acute coronary syndrome. The EPS schedule highlights reports from Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), Celanese (NYSE: CE), Centex (NYSE: CTX), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE: CME), Corinthian Colleges (Nasdaq: COCO), Cummins (NYSE: CMI), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS), Fiserv (Nasdaq: FISV), Jack Henry & Associates (Nasdaq: JKHY), Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO), Merck (NYSE: MRK), MetLife (NYSE: MET), Motorola (NYSE: MOT), Myriad Genetics (Nasdaq: MYGN), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Pentair (NYSE: PNR), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC), PSE&G (NYSE: PEG), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Schering Plough (NYSE: SGP), Techne (Nasdaq: TECH), The Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW), The Pantry (Nasdaq: PTRY), Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO), Tyco Int'l (NYSE: TYC), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM).

Wednesday

The monthly parade of employment reports begins on Wednesday. Challenger, Gray & Christmas is first, at 7:30 a.m., with its data on monthly announced corporate layoffs. December's data measured layoffs at 166,348, versus 181,671 in November. We do not have a consensus figure for January, but anecdotal evidence points to a number at least near December's, and likely higher.

The ADP Employment Report, at 8:15, is a useful predictor (sometimes) of the DOL's monthly tally. But your interest in ADP's data may be a sign of impatience, since the big government version (including public sector jobs) comes just two days later. Still, those who can accurately discern how this report might reflect the government data may have some advantage going into Friday. Last month, ADP terrified the market and set it up for a controlled response to the government data, which proved not as bad. Last time around, ADP noted a whopping 693K net job loss for December.

At 10:00 a.m., ISM's Nonmanufacturing Report should note further contraction of the vast service sector in January. Bloomberg's consensus of economists forecasts January's index will measure 39.0, versus 40.6 in December. Look for the regular mortgage activity report in the early morning, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30. It's now or never for OPEC production cuts to make impact, but that depends on if its pace of supply constraint is keeping up with demand drop-off.

The week after the Fed policy decision usually sees regional Fed presidents attending speaking engagements. It also allows the economist with understanding of human psychology to discern what's on the collective mind of the Fed. Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto will address one particular group on Wednesday. Up on Capitol Hill, the House Financial Services Committee takes a look at the Madoff case, and how in the h_ll regulators missed the wrongdoing for so long, and after so many warnings.

Indonesian markets will be keenly attuned to the nation's central bank decision. In the states, a busy EPS schedule highlights news from 99 Cents Only (NYSE: NDN), Akamai (Nasdaq: AKAM), Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), Allergan (NYSE: AGN), Arch Chemicals (NYSE: ARJ), ArvinMeritor (NYSE: ARM), Atmel (Nasdaq: ATML), BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), BMC Software (NYSE: BMC), Cadence Design (Nasdaq: CDNS), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Clorox (NYSE: CLX), Coherent (Nasdaq: COHR), Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), Diebold (NYSE: DBD), Drugstore.com (Nasdaq: DSCM), ExpressJet (NYSE: XJT), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), Hain Celestial (Nasdaq: HAIN), Harman Int'l (NYSE: HAR), Imperial Sugar (Nasdaq: IPSU), Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), MKS Instruments (Nasdaq: MKSI), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Nobel Learning (Nasdaq: NLCI), Novellus (Nasdaq: NVLS), ON Semiconductor (Nasdaq: ONNN), Panasonic (NYSE: PC), Philip Morris (NYSE: PM), Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), Prudential (NYSE: PRU), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE), Sunoco (NYSE: SUN), The Brinks Co. (NYSE: BCO), THQ, Inc. (Nasdaq: THQI), Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Torchmark (NYSE: TMK), Tupperware (NYSE: TUP), Visa (NYSE: V) and more.

Thursday

Thursday regularly offers the busiest news day, and this one will not vary far from trend. First thing's first... overseas markets will lead off the day with central bank decisions out of the Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB). The BOE is expected to cut rates by 50 BPS to 1.0%. The ECB is seen holding steady, but cutting in March, according to Barron's. I would have to disagree on this one, and look for a cut this month. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser will address a group here in the USA.

As usual, intense interest surrounds the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report, which is released at 8:30. The consensus forecast stands at 583K this time around, compared to last week's measure of 588K. There's a good chance we'll break 600K, so buckle up. The Monster Employment Index is also due in the early morning on Thursday. Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW) produces this metric of online job availability and demand. December's measuring of the index placed it at 131, versus 143 in November.

Individual retailers begin reporting their chain store sales results on Thursday, making this week an extremely dangerous one for long positions. The Productivity and Costs Report for the fourth quarter is also due this morning. Bloomberg's consensus of economists places productivity expectations at +1.1% and costs at +2.9%.

The RBC CASH Index, a sentiment measure, is due at 9:00 a.m. It hit a six-year low in January's read, touching 13.3, down from 15.3 in December. We can't see much reason for rise this month. Unemployment has risen, stocks have declined, the economy has never looked as fragile, and global economies are equally concerning.

Factory Orders are due at 10:00 a.m. Bloomberg's group forecasts a December decrease of 3.0%, versus a 4.6% drop in November. There's no inconsistency with logic in any of the week's deteriorating metrics, including this one.

Emerald Asset Management kicks off its 16th Annual Emerald Groundhog Day Investment Forum in Philadelphia on Thursday, and The Greek will be there. The day's earnings schedule highlights news from Alkermes (Nasdaq: ALKS), Avanex (Nasdaq: AVNX), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Bebe Stores (Nasdaq: BEBE), Brookfield Properties (NYSE: BPO), Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH), CardioDynamics (Nasdaq: CDIC), Carlisle Cos. (NYSE: CSL), Cepheid (Nasdaq: CPHD), CIGNA (NYSE: CI), Cincinnati Bell (NYSE: CBB), Cohu (Nasdaq: COHU), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), Eagle Materials (NYSE: EXP), Earthlink (Nasdaq: ELNK), Echelon (Nasdaq: ELON), Elizabeth Arden (Nasdaq: RDEN), EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq: ESLR), Exide (Nasdaq: XIDE), FEI Co. (Nasdaq: FEIC), Flowers Foods (NYSE: FLO), Gartner (NYSE: IT), GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG), Healthways (Nasdaq: HWAY), IDEX (NYSE: IEX), IMS Health (NYSE: RX), JDSU (Nasdaq: JDSU), Kellogg (NYSE: K), Lennox (NYSE: LI), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), MF Global (NYSE: MF), MICROS Systems (Nasdaq: MCRS), Millipore (NYSE: MIL), Moody's (NYSE: MCO), National Fuel Gas (NYSE: NFG), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN), Pitney Bowes (NYSE: PBI), Ralcorp (NYSE: RAH), ResMed (NYSE: RMD), Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP), Seattle Genetics (Nasdaq: SGEN), Sonic Foundry (Nasdaq: SOFO), Sonoco Brands (NYSE: SON), Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE), Tenneco (NYSE: TEN), Terremark Worldwide (Nasdaq: TMRK), Estee' Lauder (NYSE: EL), The Hanover Insurance Group (NYSE: THG), Timberland (NYSE: TBL), Unilever N.V. (NYSE: UN), VeriSign (Nasdaq: VRSN), Watson Wyatt Worldwide (NYSE: WW), Western Union (NYSE: WU) and many more believe it or not.

Friday

The Employment Situation Report headlines Friday's news, if it's not the story of the entire week. Expectations for unemployment edged up as recently as this past week, and that's concerning. Economists now expect a February measure of 7.5%, which compares against January's 7.2%. As the weeks pass, economist after economist raises his cyclical end-point for unemployment.

Nonfarm Payrolls are seen shedding 524K this time around, exactly matching last month's measurement. Again, there's a good chance we'll surpass 600K net jobs lost on the month. Average hourly earnings are seen backing up a bit, and this trend looks to continue as states like New York ask employees to take pay cuts. That's not to mention the firing of higher paid employees and bonus cuts.

At 3:00 p.m., look for the Consumer Credit Report for December. Credit is expected to decline by $3.5 billion, compared to the $7.9 billion decline in November. It'll take a while for all the air to come out of this balloon.

Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) is set to post a notable loss, and the rest of the earnings schedule highlights news from Aon (NYSE: AOC), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Beacon Roofing Supply (Nasdaq: BECN), BioCryst (Nasdaq: BCRX), Biogen Idec (Nasdaq: BIIB), British Airways (Nasdaq: BAIRY.PK), CNA Surety (NYSE: SUR), Hillenbrand (NYSE: HI), Infineon (NYSE: IFX), LaBarge (NYSE: LB), Mitsubishi UFJ (NYSE: MTU), Sensient (NYSE: SXT), TECO Energy (NYSE: TE), U.S. Global Investors (Nasdaq: GROW), Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY), White Mountains Insurance (NYSE: WTM) and a few more...

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. (Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD, AMEX: SDK)