This Week: GDP + EPS = Double Trouble

By The Greek - Economy & Markets

Visit the front pages of Wall Street Greek and Market Moving News to see our current coverage of economic reports and financial markets.

The ongoing bear party invites a dose of double trouble for stocks this week. Investors should not be surprised by the rush of earnings misses, slashing of corporate guidance and announcements of business consolidation that will likely drive stocks this week. Economists are also expecting the worst for the fourth quarter reporting of gross domestic product on Friday, so a mauling seems certain for the market.

(Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD, AMEX: SDK, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: SDS)

The Week Ahead

Monday

Happy Lunar New Year! The Year of the Ox is supposed to be a prosperous one for people who work like oxen. I should be okay then...

Because of this week's delayed publishing of this article, the day's duo of economic reports have already hit the wire. Leading Economic Indicators for December unexpectedly rose 0.3%, against consensus expectations for a 0.3% decline. Needless to say, that was quite a surprise! However, the increase had much to do with the massive expansion of money supply and the yield spread. Those two prospective factors offset continued declines in building permits, the average workweek, supplier deliveries, and initial unemployment claims. In other words, we're in the desert, so don't bank on that oasis you see ahead of you.

Existing Home Sales, reported for December, were also improved and above consensus! Wait a second here, are we so use to darkness that we don't recognize daylight any longer? Existing home sales were reported running at an annual pace of 4.74 million in December, versus expectations for 4.4 million. November's read showed sales running at 4.49 million.

Monday's earnings schedule highlights reports from Alberto Culver (NYSE: ACV), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Crane (NYSE: CR), Danaher (NYSE: DHR), Eaton (NYSE: ETN), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), Heritage Oaks Bancorp (Nasdaq: HEOP), JDA Software (Nasdaq: JDAS), Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), McKesson (NYSE: MCK), Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), Old National Bancorp (NYSE: ONB), Olin Corp. (NYSE: OLN), Pactiv (NYSE: PTV), Park National (NYSE: PRK), Peoples Bancorp (Nasdaq: PEBO), QLogic (Nasdaq: QLGC), Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX), Reinsurance Group of America (NYSE: RGA), Sealed Air (NYSE: SEE), Steak 'n Shake (NYSE: SNS), Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq: STLD), Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN), Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN), VMware (NYSE: VMW), Volterra Semiconductor (Nasdaq: VLTR), W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW), Weatherford (NYSE: WFT), WellCare Health (NYSE: WCG), Wyeth (NYSE: WYE), Zions Bancorp (Nasdaq: ZION) and Zoran (Nasdaq: ZRAN).

Tuesday

Tuesday's market focus, besides a likely flood of dire corporate reports, should be attending to the start of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Considering the Fed has pretty much gone to zero already on rates, a debate on Fed impotence/virility should be center of attention. The Bank of Japan will publish its December meeting minutes as well.

Last week's ICSC Weekly Same-Store Sales data reportedly benefited from retail markdowns post the holidays. You see, week-to-week sales rose, however, when compared against the prior year, sales declined 1.8%. Look for deep deterioration to take a grip of this report now, and for retailers to see their hardest days since The Great Depression.

The Conference Board is scheduled to report on Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. The consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg sees a slight improvement in store this month (to 39, from 38). Needless to say, both are tragically low. Speaking of tragic, the S&P Case Shiller Index is reported at 9:00 AM, and it might be useful if it weren't reported two months too late. The data for November will be noted on this day.

Tuesday's earnings news includes Alliance Financial (Nasdaq: ALNC), Altera (Nasdaq: ALTR), Amylin Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMLN), Avery Dennison (NYSE: AVY), BJ Services (NYSE: BJS), Black Box (Nasdaq: BBOX), Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), Callaway Golf (NYSE: ELY), Carpenter Technology (NYSE: CRS), Check Point Software (Nasdaq: CHKP), Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL), DuPont (NYSE: DD), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC), Energizer (NYSE: ENR), First Cash (Nasdaq: FCFS), FPL Group (NYSE: FPL), Gilead (Nasdaq: GILD), Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: JAC), Lexmark Int'l (NYSE: LXK), Molex (Nasdaq: MOLX), Nomura Holdings (Nasdaq: NRSCF.PK), Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC), Nucor (NYSE: NUE), Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), Plantronics (NYSE: PLT), Rayonier (NYSE: RYN), RF Micro Devices (Nasdaq: RFMD), Siemens AG (NYSE: SI), St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ), Sterling Bancorp (NYSE: STL), STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM), Stryker (NYSE: SYK), Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: JAVA), Tellabs (Nasdaq: TLAB), Temple-Inland (NYSE: TIN), The Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY), The McGraw-Hill Cos. (NYSE: MHP), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), US Steel (NYSE: X), Valero (NYSE: VLO), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Waters (NYSE: WAT), Websense (Nasdaq: WBSN) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO).

Wednesday

It's that time of year again. Turn on CNBC and watch the "Money Honey" reporting live from Davos, Switzerland. The famed World Economic Forum runs from January 28th through February 1st, and kicks off with an address by Russian PM Vladimir Putin. Get this, Vlad baby is declaring that foreign investment in Russia will be treated like domestic companies are... Sure Vlad, we just met you... We don't remember what happened to British Petroleum (NYSE: BP), nor do we recall the scores of imprisoned (possibly dead) domestic entrepreneurs in Siberia.

The FOMC announcement and policy statement at 2:15 should get a collective "ho hum" from the pits, unless the language in the statement diverges from bland. There's a decent chance of that, as these are anything but bland times we live in. The Fed is expected to keep its rate "target range" between zero and 0.25%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association weekly Purchase Applications Report is set for its usual pre-market reporting (a tumble weed rolls by). At 10:30, the regular EIA Petroleum Status Report should get extra attention this week. OPEC claims production cuts are up to par, and that consortium members are sticking to their quotas. Even so, demand seems to be waning at least as quickly. If factories are not closed, then they are being idled for weeks, like General Motors (NYSE: GM) announced on Monday. Shut plants mean less energy usage and heating needs, which in turn means less demand for fossil fuels. That does not even speak for the declining demand for gasoline as layed off workers stay home and watch Oprah.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) kicks off its financial services conference on Wednesday. The earnings schedule highlights news from Adaptec (Nasdaq: ADPT), Affymetrix (Nasdaq: AFFX), Airgas (NYSE: ARG), AirTran (NYSE: AAI), Ameriprise Fin'l (NYSE: AMP), Astoria Fin'l (NYSE: AF), AT&T (NYSE: T), Avocent (Nasdaq: AVCT), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Becton, Dickinson (NYSE: BDX), Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP), Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX), Cabot (NYSE: CBT), CACI Int'l (NYSE: CAI), Canon (NYSE: CAJ), Cirrus Logic (Nasdaq: CRUS), Citrix Systems (Nasdaq: CTXS), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Covance (NYSE: CVD), Energen (NYSE: EGN), Fair Isaac (NYSE: FIC), FormFactor (Nasdaq: FORM), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Green Mountain Coffee (Nasdaq: GMCR), Hess (NYSE: HES), Hoku Scientific (Nasdaq: HOKU), Lam Research (Nasdaq: LCRX), LandStar System (Nasdaq: LSTR), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LSI Corp. (NYSE: LSI), Manitowoc (NYSE: MTW), MeadWestvaco (NYSE: MWV), Methanex (Nasdaq: MEOH), Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Praxair (NYSE: PX), Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), Regis (NYSE: RGS), Robert Half (NYSE: RHI), Ryland (NYSE: RYL), SAP AG (NYSE: SAP), Sepracor (Nasdaq: SEPR), Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), Susquehanna Bancshares (Nasdaq: SUSQ), Symantec (Nasdaq: SYMC), Teradyne (NYSE: TER), Tetra Tech (Nasdaq: TTEK), Allstate (NYSE: ALL), Boeing (NYSE: BA), New York Times (NYSE: NYT), Tidewater (NYSE: TDW), Tractor Supply (Nasdaq: TSCO), Tyco Electronics (NYSE: TEL), USG (NYSE: USG), WellPoint (NYSE: WLP), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and World Acceptance (Nasdaq: WRLD).

Thursday

Economic data flow picks up Thursday and intensifies further on Friday. On Thursday morning, look for the Durable Goods Orders Report and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data at 8:30 a.m. ET. Durable Goods Orders are forecast to drop 2.0% in December, after a 1.0% decline in November. Initial Jobless Claims, which jumped back up last week after a short hiatus below the 500K level, are expected to run around 575K at this read (589 last week).

Bloomberg's consensus of economists forecasts December's New Home Sales ran at an annual rate of 400K. The sales pace stood at 407K a month ago. We've had some contrasting data on this topic of late, but one tends to trust the negative at this point. The EIA Natural Gas Report is due at its usual 10:30 reporting time. Also, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled to offer its latest monetary policy decision.

Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW) will provide an update on its operations and the earnings schedule keys news from 1-800-Flowers.com (Nasdaq: FLWS), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Affiliated Computer (NYSE: ACS), Alaska Airlines (NYSE: ALK), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Altria Group (NYSE: MO), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP), AmeriCredit (NYSE: ACF), AutoNation (NYSE: AN), Ball Corp. (NYSE: BLL), Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK), Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Cash America (NYSE: CSH), Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG), CEMEX (NYSE: CX), Chattem (Nasdaq: CHTT), Chubb (NYSE: CB), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), Columbia Sportswear (Nasdaq: COLM), Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL), Digital River (Nasdaq: DRIV), Dollar Fin'l (Nasdaq: DLLR), Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK), Electronics for Imaging (Nasdaq: EFII), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Ford Motor (NYSE: F), Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Gold Fields Ltd (NYSE: GFI), Integrated Device Tech (Nasdaq: IDTI), Int'l Speedway (Nasdaq: ISCA), Int'l Paper (NYSE: IP), Investment Technology Group (NYSE: ITG), JetBlue Airways (Nasdaq: JBLU), Kennametal (NYSE: KMT), KLA-Tencor (Nasdaq: KLAC), Maxim Integrated (Nasdaq: MXIM), Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW), Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL), OptionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PerkinElmer (NYSE: PKI), PMC-Sierra (Nasdaq: PMCS), Polaris (NYSE: PII), Quixote (Nasdaq: QUIX), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Smith Int'l (NYSE: SII), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), US Airways (NYSE: LCC) and more.

Friday

We're guessing you'll all be peaking through your fingers when fourth quarter GDP is reported on Friday morning. Economists are expecting dramatic economic contraction of 5.4%. The economy backed up 0.5% in Q3. The consensus for the death count ranges from 3% to 7%, so the market has a lot of room to range on the news and thus we have the makings of a market-moving event.

Also at 8:30, the Employment Cost Index is seen increasing 0.7%; only a slight rise here, as companies cut benefits and employees both! Also note that as companies consolidate costs, they often replace higher paid employees with new folks.

The National Association of Purchasing Managers Chicago posts its Purchasing Managers Index at 9:45. NAPM's measure is expected to slip to 34.0, from 34.1 in December. Readings below 50 signify business contraction, so it would be difficult to find solace in a reading a little higher than expected. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment read is set for 10:00 a.m. Friday. Economists forecast a reading of 61.9, vs. the same level at last check.

With the Russia/Ukraine gas row seemingly settled, the Prime Minister of Belarus is expected in Moscow to discuss its partnership with the unruly Ruskies. Farm Prices are due at 3:00 PM.

The earnings schedule highlights news from Active Power (Nasdaq: ACPW), Ametek (NYSE: AME), Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Gannett (NYSE: GCI), Harte-Hanks (NYSE: HHS), Honda Motor (NYSE: HMC), Honeywell (NYSE: HON), Horizon Lines (NYSE: HRZ), Idexx Labs (Nasdaq: IDXX), Johnson Outdoors (Nasdaq: JOUT), Kulicke & Soffa (Nasdaq: KLIC), Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK), PACCAR (Nasdaq: PCAR), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) and Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.