Week Ahead: Ho Ho Hum

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The Week Ahead

If you thought last week was quiet, get a load of this one. There's very little data of consequence set to reach market wires this shortened holiday period.

Monday

We suspect the handful of Wall Street survivors still working will take an early look at futures, stick around for the first half hour of trading, and then have long brunches (with cocktail) all week long. As for work, barring any unforeseen geopolitical blowups, there's just not much doing on Monday. Note, the kindling is in place for such a troubling event, so a simple spark could set India and Pakistan aflame, not to mention Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Israel. Otherwise though, the composition of this week is boring.

The Gulf Cooperation Council is scheduled to meet in Muscat, Oman. With OPEC having already acted, this would normally be an overlooked news item. However, with the Supreme Leader of Iran calling upon all Muslims to defend Palestine and with protests taking place all over the world, this meeting should garner a good degree of attention.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to detail money supply for the week ended December 15. This is another bit of data that most would overlook, but as the weeks pass and economists look toward an eventual economic fishtail, and the renewal of inflation, that should all change.

The paper thin earnings schedule includes Cal-Maine Foods (Nasdaq: CALM), Onstream Media (Nasdaq: ONSM) and Rick's Cabaret Int'l (Nasdaq: RICK).

Tuesday

Coming off the period of holiday shopping's last hope, all eyes will be on the ICSC/Goldman Weekly Same-Store Sales Data. Sales were down 0.6% year-to-year on last week's measure, and year-to-year figures should continue sour as far as the eye can see.

The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index seems to have absolutely no logical footing to change trend, so look for further broad reaching price decline for the reported month of October. In any event, October was three months ago, and we already have all the data we need to know that housing continued to deteriorate. In other words, this is a near useless report (except to perhaps local markets) that gets way too much media attention. We need December's data now, or at least November!

At 10:00 AM, look for the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for December. November's data came in at 44.9, and the consensus of economists see 45.5 for December, according to Bloomberg. We were at 87.9 in January...

Go out and rent the film Trading Places, because December's Farm Report is due at 3:00 PM on Tuesday. I wonder how Mortimer Duke is doing this year...

Wednesday

New Year's Eve couldn't have come any sooner. We're sure the majority of you will be glad to be out with the old, no matter what the new year may hold in store. Weekly Jobless Claims marked a 26-year high last week as they rocketed to 586K. We would hope the holiday week didn't greet nearly as many folks with pink slips.

At 9:45, the National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago offers its composite diffusion index of business conditions. November's take on the metric was a lowly 33.8, and December shouldn't be any better for this measure of mostly Chicago area manufacturers. In case you're American and not from the windy city, Chicago is not but a stone's throw from Detroit and the troubled auto sector (hint hint).

The Mortgage Bankers Association's Purchase Applications Report has been a recent anomaly among economic data points, as it has shown life of late. Falling mortgage rates are allowing some folks to refinance, which is never a bad thing.

The EIA will report both its Petroleum Status and Natural Gas data on Wednesday this week. Look for Petroleum Status at the usual 10:35 reporting time. Last week's data noted a surprise and deep draw from inventory. The 3.1 million barrel draw may have had something to do with an onslaught of cold and blustery weather, but most of that occurred last week (speaking for my region of the Northeast). So, I would look for another draw this time around. Natural Gas inventories will be reported at 12:00 PM.

U.S. financial futures and options markets close at 1:00 PM, while the bond market shutters its windows at 2 p.m. The equity exchanges are open all day, while markets in Japan, Brazil and Germany will be closed. Remember, this will be your last day to record capital losses on securities for your 2008 tax return.

Thursday

Happy New Year! Major markets around the world are closed for the holiday. OPEC's big 2.2 million barrel per day production cut begins with the turn of the year. Changes of leadership in the EU and G8 bring Czech and Italian representatives to the fore, respectively. Slovakia is welcomed into the euro zone. Costa Rica must decide by this day whether to join the U.S.-Central American Free Trade Agreement.

Friday

Friday marks the first trading day of 2009 in the U.S., while markets in Russia, Japan, China and others wait until Monday. Barron's notes the significance of the day's direction for the full year's outlook. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, 86.1% of the time, the first five days of trading are predictive of the remainder of the year. This may have something to do with the performance of the prior year, the rhythm of life, and tendency of reversion to the mean. It's also undoubtedly driven by the growth of population and economy, inflation and related tendency for asset value rise. However, it cannot account for wild card factors that often come to play. We happen to see one this year, and hope to note it in a "Year Ahead" article (keep your eye out for it).

The Institute for Supply Managers will report its manufacturing index at 10:00 a.m., the first economic report of the year. The consensus read is for a level of 35.4, down from 36.2 last time around. Also, the SEC's mark-to-market accounting study is due on this day, and should make for some interesting reading on an otherwise light news day.

We wish you all the best for the new year!

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD and AMEX: SDK.