Week Ahead: Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas
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By The Greek - Economy & Markets:
My favorite Christmas song seems to apply to the entire world this year. It's a hopeful tune that is sure to bring a tear to many an eye this frigid season. Allow me to get a little sentimental, and offer you a pat on the back. Remember your heart and...
"Have yourself a merry little Christmas;
Let your heart be light.
Next year all our troubles will be out of sight.
Have yourself a merry little Christmas,
make the yuletide gay.
Next year, all our troubles will be miles away."
(Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD, AMEX: SDK)
The market seemed to have decided to throw in the towel last week, a couple times, but then good old Uncle Sam came to the rescue again. The Fed somehow mustered up a last bit of magic dust, taking unprecedented action to bring rates into a target range of 0%-0.25%. Better yet, we expect it will do what TARP was supposed to, kind of. The Fed will buy up mortgage securities, unclogging the system, possibly.
The excitement lasted until Thursday's employment report, which while noting less claims than the week before, still held well above 500,000 new jobless filers. The unemployment report was not the only bad news stacking up against investors last week. The Philly Fed Index remained horribly pessimistic, and Leading Indicators for November measured down 0.4%. Talking heads openly speculated about Q4 GDP contraction of 4% or more, and I happened to catch one on Bloomberg Radio predict 6-8%. Meanwhile, the President spoke about "orderly bankruptcy" as a possibility for automakers. That really upset the market on Thursday.
However, the message was clarified on Friday, when the Feds presented Detroit with $17 billion to tide General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler over through March. The money didn't come easy, but families in the Midwest could at least now breath a sigh of relief through the holidays, not to mention the rest of us.
The Week Ahead
Hanukkah has already begun, and the typically light trading week will be shortened by Thursday's marking of Christmas for Christians the world over. The market reopens on Friday, for a traditionally negligible trading session. Without much scheduled for Monday or Friday, a slew of economic reports get packed into Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Monday
Corporate events seem sure to guide the market's direction on Monday. There's not a smidgen of economic news scheduled. Overseas, Nicolas Sarkozy and EC President Jose' Manuel Barroso headline a meeting of the EU with Brazil. This follows last week's summit of Latin American nations with China and Russia. Note, a certain superpower neighbor seems to be getting the cold shoulder from its southern brothers.
Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) has scheduled a news conference, within which it is widely expected to cut its forecast for 2009, and potentially announce cost consolidations of its own to match efforts seen in Detroit.
On Sunday, I passed a guy holding a giant sign that read "80% OFF". As I walked out into the street to see what desperate store might be offering the big sale, the poor guy who was stuck with the job of standing out there in the cold insisted, "the last day is tomorrow bud." Circuit City (NYSE: CC) is set to start its bankruptcy proceeding Monday you see. I'll say one thing: the sale worked in Manhattan, as the store shelves were bare; and boy did I feel stupid for missing it. I expect creditors will be pleasantly surprised with what they find in the coffers though, as shoppers were especially hungry for bottom line sales this year. When remembering your favorite Greek, I would like a new laptop and a digital camera Santa Claus...
Lehman Brothers has a request for the bankruptcy court on Monday as well, as it seeks approval to sell its Neuberger Berman division to the managers of the business. The day's earnings schedule highlights news from Park Electrochemical (NYSE: PKE), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), Steelcase (NYSE: SCS), TIBCO Software (Nasdaq: TIBX) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG).
Tuesday
So many things could go wrong on Tuesday, but none related to Japan since the nation will be celebrating the Emperor's birthday. The market might get a jolt from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's speech in Paris, since he's been interpreted as considering a pause of expansionary monetary action. I would suggest a trip to Athens for a wake up call Mr. Trichet. Governments throughout Europe should be under similar pressure before 2009 is through though, so trouble might find him anyway. This news played havoc with the dollar last week, but looks to be more problematic for Europe over the long-term, considering the severity of global economic contraction.
States-side, in the pre-market, the final reporting of third quarter GDP should bring economists' forecasts for Q4 front and center. That's not a good thing. The estimated final tally for Q3 is seen matching the last take of -0.5%, but Q4 will steal the show. The Corporate Profits Report for November is also due at 8:30.
However, the data that should have the most significant impact on stocks will emanate from the housing sector on Tuesday. Both New and Existing Home Sales are due, and all other sector reports have offered deteriorating results. Just last week, the Housing Market Index, produced by the National Association of Home Builders, stayed stuck at the miserable level of 9 posted in October. Also, November's Housing Starts came in at a pace more than a hundred thousand short of consensus expectations. We expect economists would be better prepared for Tuesday's duo of dire data, but the forecasts are split in indicating so.
Scheduled for 10:00 AM, November Existing Home Sales are seen running at an annual pace of 4.9 million. October sales managed 4.98 million. New Home Sales, also due at 10:00, are forecast to fall to a pace of just 420K, from 433K in October. This may prove conservative, as the worst pain is being felt by home building industry.
Two sentiment measures are due at 10:00 as well. State Street's Investor Confidence Index will likely sink lower than the November reading of 57.0, which up until now, marked the low-point for the year. The final University of Michigan/Reuters reading for December is seen deteriorating to 58.6, from 59.1 at last check.
The ICSC-Goldman Weekly Same-Store Sales change fell back into negative territory last week. Sales fell 0.4% year-over-year. We would expect more of the same this week as well. The day's earnings schedule highlights news from American Greetings (NYSE: AM), FSI International (Nasdaq: FSII) and Micron Technology (NYSE: MU).
Wednesday
With the holiday forthcoming, markets will close early on Wednesday. Equities, futures and options stop trading at 1 PM, while the bond market stays open until 2:00. Since the markets will be closed on Thursday, many of the reports regularly scheduled for Thursday will be moved up. This makes for a hectic short day.
Jobless Claims top our radar every Thursday now, though Wednesday this week. Economists are looking for a sum of 552K new claims filers for the most recent reporting period, versus 554K last week. Personal Income and Outlays are scheduled for release at 8:30. Income is forecast unchanged in November (+0.3% Oct.), while Spending is seen decreasing 0.7%, versus a 1.0% drop in October. Needless to say, the retail sector is next in line for the chopping block, if that's not yet evident to you. Many a prognosticator has been recommending select picks in the destroyed group, but we think you would be better served just avoiding the minefield altogether.
November's Durable Goods Orders are expected to fall a full 3.0%, after a steep drop of 6.2% in October. For the life of us, we can't imagine the reason why, with the auto and housing industry knee deep in it. Look for the Mortgage Bankers Association Report as well. Weekly mortgage activity has benefited from lower rates, and we expect the same continued last week.
The weekly EIA Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Reports will both be released on Wednesday this week. Cold began to grip much of the nation last week, but significantly warm weather pervaded in the Northeast, a big heating oil consumption region. Last week, we noted our expectation for oil prices to continue dropping until the weekly EIA report eventually shows a draw down of inventories. Recall, inventories have increased now 11 out of the last 12 reports, and oil inventories are at the high end of their range for this time of year. Still, that point we're looking for will mark the time to buy oil, or anticipation of it will.
Thursday
Merry Christmas! The Bank of Japan offers us the gift of its minutes from the November policy meeting. That doesn't even beat coal on this cold December. Major stock markets are closed throughout the world, and we wish you a merry Christmas.
Friday
The bond market closes at 2:00 PM on Friday, and equity markets will be closed in Hong Kong, U.K., Switzerland and Germany for Boxing Day. Markets should be closed in the U.S. as well, but they will open for trading, and dare I say greed. Enjoy the season with warm hearts.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.
By The Greek - Economy & Markets:My favorite Christmas song seems to apply to the entire world this year. It's a hopeful tune that is sure to bring a tear to many an eye this frigid season. Allow me to get a little sentimental, and offer you a pat on the back. Remember your heart and...
"Have yourself a merry little Christmas;
Let your heart be light.
Next year all our troubles will be out of sight.
Have yourself a merry little Christmas,
make the yuletide gay.
Next year, all our troubles will be miles away."
(Article interests: AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: NYX, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD, AMEX: XLF, AMEX: IWM, AMEX: TWM, AMEX: IWD, AMEX: SDK)
The market seemed to have decided to throw in the towel last week, a couple times, but then good old Uncle Sam came to the rescue again. The Fed somehow mustered up a last bit of magic dust, taking unprecedented action to bring rates into a target range of 0%-0.25%. Better yet, we expect it will do what TARP was supposed to, kind of. The Fed will buy up mortgage securities, unclogging the system, possibly.
The excitement lasted until Thursday's employment report, which while noting less claims than the week before, still held well above 500,000 new jobless filers. The unemployment report was not the only bad news stacking up against investors last week. The Philly Fed Index remained horribly pessimistic, and Leading Indicators for November measured down 0.4%. Talking heads openly speculated about Q4 GDP contraction of 4% or more, and I happened to catch one on Bloomberg Radio predict 6-8%. Meanwhile, the President spoke about "orderly bankruptcy" as a possibility for automakers. That really upset the market on Thursday.
However, the message was clarified on Friday, when the Feds presented Detroit with $17 billion to tide General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler over through March. The money didn't come easy, but families in the Midwest could at least now breath a sigh of relief through the holidays, not to mention the rest of us.
The Week Ahead
Hanukkah has already begun, and the typically light trading week will be shortened by Thursday's marking of Christmas for Christians the world over. The market reopens on Friday, for a traditionally negligible trading session. Without much scheduled for Monday or Friday, a slew of economic reports get packed into Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Monday
Corporate events seem sure to guide the market's direction on Monday. There's not a smidgen of economic news scheduled. Overseas, Nicolas Sarkozy and EC President Jose' Manuel Barroso headline a meeting of the EU with Brazil. This follows last week's summit of Latin American nations with China and Russia. Note, a certain superpower neighbor seems to be getting the cold shoulder from its southern brothers.
Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) has scheduled a news conference, within which it is widely expected to cut its forecast for 2009, and potentially announce cost consolidations of its own to match efforts seen in Detroit.
On Sunday, I passed a guy holding a giant sign that read "80% OFF". As I walked out into the street to see what desperate store might be offering the big sale, the poor guy who was stuck with the job of standing out there in the cold insisted, "the last day is tomorrow bud." Circuit City (NYSE: CC) is set to start its bankruptcy proceeding Monday you see. I'll say one thing: the sale worked in Manhattan, as the store shelves were bare; and boy did I feel stupid for missing it. I expect creditors will be pleasantly surprised with what they find in the coffers though, as shoppers were especially hungry for bottom line sales this year. When remembering your favorite Greek, I would like a new laptop and a digital camera Santa Claus...
Lehman Brothers has a request for the bankruptcy court on Monday as well, as it seeks approval to sell its Neuberger Berman division to the managers of the business. The day's earnings schedule highlights news from Park Electrochemical (NYSE: PKE), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), Steelcase (NYSE: SCS), TIBCO Software (Nasdaq: TIBX) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG).
Tuesday
So many things could go wrong on Tuesday, but none related to Japan since the nation will be celebrating the Emperor's birthday. The market might get a jolt from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's speech in Paris, since he's been interpreted as considering a pause of expansionary monetary action. I would suggest a trip to Athens for a wake up call Mr. Trichet. Governments throughout Europe should be under similar pressure before 2009 is through though, so trouble might find him anyway. This news played havoc with the dollar last week, but looks to be more problematic for Europe over the long-term, considering the severity of global economic contraction.
States-side, in the pre-market, the final reporting of third quarter GDP should bring economists' forecasts for Q4 front and center. That's not a good thing. The estimated final tally for Q3 is seen matching the last take of -0.5%, but Q4 will steal the show. The Corporate Profits Report for November is also due at 8:30.
However, the data that should have the most significant impact on stocks will emanate from the housing sector on Tuesday. Both New and Existing Home Sales are due, and all other sector reports have offered deteriorating results. Just last week, the Housing Market Index, produced by the National Association of Home Builders, stayed stuck at the miserable level of 9 posted in October. Also, November's Housing Starts came in at a pace more than a hundred thousand short of consensus expectations. We expect economists would be better prepared for Tuesday's duo of dire data, but the forecasts are split in indicating so.
Scheduled for 10:00 AM, November Existing Home Sales are seen running at an annual pace of 4.9 million. October sales managed 4.98 million. New Home Sales, also due at 10:00, are forecast to fall to a pace of just 420K, from 433K in October. This may prove conservative, as the worst pain is being felt by home building industry.
Two sentiment measures are due at 10:00 as well. State Street's Investor Confidence Index will likely sink lower than the November reading of 57.0, which up until now, marked the low-point for the year. The final University of Michigan/Reuters reading for December is seen deteriorating to 58.6, from 59.1 at last check.
The ICSC-Goldman Weekly Same-Store Sales change fell back into negative territory last week. Sales fell 0.4% year-over-year. We would expect more of the same this week as well. The day's earnings schedule highlights news from American Greetings (NYSE: AM), FSI International (Nasdaq: FSII) and Micron Technology (NYSE: MU).
Wednesday
With the holiday forthcoming, markets will close early on Wednesday. Equities, futures and options stop trading at 1 PM, while the bond market stays open until 2:00. Since the markets will be closed on Thursday, many of the reports regularly scheduled for Thursday will be moved up. This makes for a hectic short day.
Jobless Claims top our radar every Thursday now, though Wednesday this week. Economists are looking for a sum of 552K new claims filers for the most recent reporting period, versus 554K last week. Personal Income and Outlays are scheduled for release at 8:30. Income is forecast unchanged in November (+0.3% Oct.), while Spending is seen decreasing 0.7%, versus a 1.0% drop in October. Needless to say, the retail sector is next in line for the chopping block, if that's not yet evident to you. Many a prognosticator has been recommending select picks in the destroyed group, but we think you would be better served just avoiding the minefield altogether.
November's Durable Goods Orders are expected to fall a full 3.0%, after a steep drop of 6.2% in October. For the life of us, we can't imagine the reason why, with the auto and housing industry knee deep in it. Look for the Mortgage Bankers Association Report as well. Weekly mortgage activity has benefited from lower rates, and we expect the same continued last week.
The weekly EIA Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Reports will both be released on Wednesday this week. Cold began to grip much of the nation last week, but significantly warm weather pervaded in the Northeast, a big heating oil consumption region. Last week, we noted our expectation for oil prices to continue dropping until the weekly EIA report eventually shows a draw down of inventories. Recall, inventories have increased now 11 out of the last 12 reports, and oil inventories are at the high end of their range for this time of year. Still, that point we're looking for will mark the time to buy oil, or anticipation of it will.
Thursday
Merry Christmas! The Bank of Japan offers us the gift of its minutes from the November policy meeting. That doesn't even beat coal on this cold December. Major stock markets are closed throughout the world, and we wish you a merry Christmas.
Friday
The bond market closes at 2:00 PM on Friday, and equity markets will be closed in Hong Kong, U.K., Switzerland and Germany for Boxing Day. Markets should be closed in the U.S. as well, but they will open for trading, and dare I say greed. Enjoy the season with warm hearts.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there.
Labels: Week Ahead
posted by The Greek | 10:15 AM
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