Let's Debate the Employment Situation
The latest "Topic of Debate" covers the employment situation. How bad is it? How bad will it get? We are polling the readership to get an idea what the collective consciousness thinks.
This past week showed unemployment rose another two-tenths to 5.7% in July, but the mysterious birth/death rate plays a role in perverting those numbers, or does it? And, what of the part-time employed who are working less than enough to feed their families, and yet unaccounted for among the unemployed. This group has increased significantly over the past twelve months. "The Greek" authored an article on the topic recently. See "Unemployment Rate Jumps."
So, are things worse than what the modest rate implies? Just how bad might things get? Do you agree with "The Greek," in that a wave of newly jobless is about to hit the labor market, arriving from the consumer discretionary sector? Please pay your two cents through the "COMMENT" link below.
Topic of Debate Archive
posted by The Greek | 2:38 PM
3 Comments:
I think the employment situation is worse than what has been reported since much entepreurial work hasn't been counted. House flipping was a way for many to make an income but that has dried up.
This is true, and a great point. I'm sure the real estate market created a lot of independent investors over the recent past, and these folks are probably idle now.
However, a lot of these guys (the semi-successful or those who wanted access to data in the agency) were also employed as real estate agents and they are included in the unemployment data, and a driver of decline in July in fact.
Your mention of entrepreneurs is interesting. I believe a lot of folks who lose their job or leave work, then take a shot at their dream. Guys like me go out and try to make it happen. These people have been employing folks this year, as small business employment had grown while medium to larger businesses were shedding jobs. However, recently, small businesses retrenched and my guess is that hard times will lead many of these fledgling endeavors to fail.
The impact of those failures might also help fuel a burst higher in unemployment. Thanks for your comment Richard.
I tend to agree that the unemployment percentage is both too low as reported and will go higher as we move into the fall.
The "underemployed" as noted, are not counted and if memory serves me correctly, this was the case during the recession of the late 1970's and early 1980's.
What I did not see addressed in the blog was how the hard core unemployed (those out of work for over one year or those who have just given up seeking employment) would change the REAL unemployment percentage.
One other item to look at is university/college and properitial school enrollment. Traditionally, people attempt to return to school in economic downturns in order to re-train or at least qualify for some type of loan deferment.
The current student loan (largely affecting private loans, not federal loans) crisis will definitely affect those seeking refuge in the halls of higher / vocational education this time around as private loans are more difficult to come by than in years past.
Some student loan lenders (issuing private student loans, not federal ones) have suspended or halted giving loans; others have become more conservative in their lending.
These moves may very well place higher / vocational education beyond the reach of some potential studet borrowers.
An increase in former students unable to meet their repayment obligations may / will seek forberances and hardship deferments on student loans may provide a peek into how the economy is working or not working.
Regardless, this will be a long fall and winter with the recession probably extending well into 2010.
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