Dispelling Kuwaiti Alert Rumor

By Yal - Middle Eastern Affairs:
(Contributed to by Daniel P.)

Article interests (AMEX: GAF, DIA, SPY, DOG, SDS, QLD), (Nasdaq: ISRQ, ISRX, GULF, QQQQ, AMDEX, AMDAX, XISLX, AMDCX, TRAMX, TRIAX), (NYSE: NYX, LMT, COL, NOC, ATK, GD)

Reports have been circulating since early August that Kuwait is at a heightened level of alert. Some even went as far as saying "NUCLEAR ARMADA ON ITS WAY TO IRAN." Sources cited that the USS Theodore Roosevelt was already on its way to the Gulf and that the USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Strike Group Seven - the USS Iwo Jima as well as French and British ships were reportedly following close behind.

The Iranian press picked up the story and repeated it all over again and again - from there it was copied to many websites around the world.

What caused those reports on a pending attack is unknown. We wonder if there was a connection to massive oil futures contracts that were unwinding at the time.

The Truth
The USS Theodore Roosevelt is still at Norfolk until Sep 8th. Our sources indicate that there is no unusual activity anywhere in the Gulf and that the only activity in Kuwait is related to its preparation for Ramadan, which starts next month. Folks, it is Ramadan - Nobody would attack Iran during Ramadan, when religious feelings are at their peak. Any attack on a Muslim nation during this time may undermine stability throughout the regimens of the ME. Ramadan runs from September 1st through the 30th, with Id el-Fiter in early October.

Daniel Adds - (Daniel is slated to pick up global affairs coverage for "The Greek" shortly)
Other sources indicate the U.S. has two Air Carrier Groups and one Marine Expeditionary Group (read 3 aircraft carriers) in the Indian Ocean. The two Air Carrier Groups would comprise some 40 ships and 6 submarines, more or less. The Marine Group comprises about 12 ships. It is a sizable contingent even without the assets currently in the Gulf region itself.

Yal Notes Anecdotal Hints...
The only counter indication to our argument is that Israel's Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, has put his Tel-Aviv penthouse up for sale (listed at $17M in case you are interested) - does he think that property values in Tel-Aviv are about to go down? They might for various reasons that have nothing to do with any security situation...





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