Strong Job Creation Catalyzes Stock Gains
Investors put their concerns about Fed tapering aside Friday morning, and instead celebrated stronger job creation than was expected for the month of October. Nonfarm payrolls far exceeded economists’ expectations, which incorporated concerns about the impact of the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate on hiring. Find all information and analysis you need about international markets, commodities, the economy and stocks below.
The regular driver of stocks lately has been swinging expectations about Federal Reserve asset purchases. However, today investors put those worries aside and enjoyed good news for once. In fact, they celebrated it, with the broader markets reversing a three-day downward trend.
Economic Events
-R symbolizes “revised”
Nonfarm payrolls were so much better than expected this morning that investors could not help themselves but to celebrate the news. Some 204K net jobs were reported created in October, which were 80 grand more than the economists’ consensus view. Also, the prior month’s dismal data was revised higher, so economic recovery may not be on hold after all. Private payrolls drove the rise, as evident in the table above, but the federal data decline does not reflect direct government shutdown impact, as federal employees out on leave collected pay in the reported period and did not qualify for such counting. The unemployment rate did deteriorate in the period even despite further erosion to the workforce count. It really does not matter, since we all know very well by now that the real unemployment rate is much higher than 7.3%. We may calculate our now famous adjusted rate later today, but the U-6 figure produced by the government shows 13.8% underemployment, which is bad enough.
Investors likely also liked the fact that personal spending grew 0.2% in October, as consumer sentiment was falling apart through the month and even into November. Today’s mood measure by the University of Michigan showed further deterioration in confidence, and less confidence than economists expected. Read what we publish at Seeking Alpha over the weekend regarding the economy and Fed asset purchases, as it will serve as a complementary note to this article.
Overseas Markets
Well, well, well, the trend continued into Friday, with Europe on the decline as the FTSE 100 improved. The Europeans are focused on the concern expressed by the ECB about the regional economy, where American investors would be celebrating yesterday’s supportive central bank action. It’s an interesting contrast in psychology that must be relative to the significant differences between capitalism and socialism. In the capitalist U.S., selfish investment interests trump broader economic views (trust me, I know that by the amount of traffic to stock articles versus economy articles); yet in Europe we see the people focus on concern for the whole marketplace.
Commodity Markets (10:52 AM)
Energy commodities have found traction on the nascent economic highlights of the day. With economic demand comes demand for energy resources, and so higher pricing. Looking at gold, take note that this latest decline in precious metals may offer the last great opportunity to defend against fiat currency disintegration. I would look for floors and opportunity to own mankind’s fallback currency. The trick is finding the most solid floor, rather than falling through level after level to the basement and breaking your bank account legs in the process.
Corporate Events
The buzz is still about Twitter (Nasdaq: TWTR) today and its high flying valuation. Still, the most active list below is full of very active shares.
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Friday’s News
Market ETF
|
November 8
|
Year-to-Date
|
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
|
+0.8%
|
+23.8%
|
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
|
+0.4%
|
+19.8%
|
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)
|
+1.0%
|
+26.2%
|
The regular driver of stocks lately has been swinging expectations about Federal Reserve asset purchases. However, today investors put those worries aside and enjoyed good news for once. In fact, they celebrated it, with the broader markets reversing a three-day downward trend.
Economic Events
ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
|
|
||
Economic Data Point
|
Prior Period
|
Expected
|
Actual
|
FRIDAY
|
|
|
|
Employment Report (Oct.)
|
|
|
|
-Nonfarm Payrolls
|
163K R
|
120K
|
204K
|
-Private Payrolls
|
150K R
|
128K
|
212K
|
-Federal Public Payrolls
|
|
|
-12K
|
-Unemployment Rate
|
7.2%
|
7.3%
|
7.3%
|
|
|
|
|
-Personal Spending
|
+0.3% R
|
+0.2%
|
+0.2%
|
-Personal Income
|
+0.5% R
|
+0.3%
|
+0.5%
|
-Core PCE Price Index
|
+0.1% R
|
+0.1%
|
+0.1%
|
73.2
|
75.0
|
72.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nonfarm payrolls were so much better than expected this morning that investors could not help themselves but to celebrate the news. Some 204K net jobs were reported created in October, which were 80 grand more than the economists’ consensus view. Also, the prior month’s dismal data was revised higher, so economic recovery may not be on hold after all. Private payrolls drove the rise, as evident in the table above, but the federal data decline does not reflect direct government shutdown impact, as federal employees out on leave collected pay in the reported period and did not qualify for such counting. The unemployment rate did deteriorate in the period even despite further erosion to the workforce count. It really does not matter, since we all know very well by now that the real unemployment rate is much higher than 7.3%. We may calculate our now famous adjusted rate later today, but the U-6 figure produced by the government shows 13.8% underemployment, which is bad enough.
Investors likely also liked the fact that personal spending grew 0.2% in October, as consumer sentiment was falling apart through the month and even into November. Today’s mood measure by the University of Michigan showed further deterioration in confidence, and less confidence than economists expected. Read what we publish at Seeking Alpha over the weekend regarding the economy and Fed asset purchases, as it will serve as a complementary note to this article.
Overseas Markets
EUROPE
|
CLOSE
|
ASIA/PACIFIC
|
CLOSE
|
EURO STOXX 50
|
-0.3%
|
NIKKEI 225
|
-1.0%
|
German DAX
|
-0.1%
|
Hang Seng
|
-0.6%
|
CAC 40
|
-0.5%
|
S&P/ASX 200
|
-0.4%
|
FTSE 100
|
+0.1%
|
Korean KOSPI
|
-1.0%
|
Bloomberg GCC 200 Mideast
|
+0.0%
|
BSE India SENSEX
|
-0.7%
|
Well, well, well, the trend continued into Friday, with Europe on the decline as the FTSE 100 improved. The Europeans are focused on the concern expressed by the ECB about the regional economy, where American investors would be celebrating yesterday’s supportive central bank action. It’s an interesting contrast in psychology that must be relative to the significant differences between capitalism and socialism. In the capitalist U.S., selfish investment interests trump broader economic views (trust me, I know that by the amount of traffic to stock articles versus economy articles); yet in Europe we see the people focus on concern for the whole marketplace.
Commodity Markets (10:52 AM)
WTI Crude
|
-0.0%
|
Brent Crude
|
+0.3%
|
NYMEX Natural Gas
|
+1.4%
|
RBOB Gasoline
|
+0.5%
|
Gold Spot
|
-1.7%
|
Silver Spot
|
-1.5%
|
COMEX Copper
|
-0.2%
|
CBOT Corn
|
-0.6%
|
CBOT Wheat
|
-0.2%
|
CBOT Soybeans
|
+0.4%
|
ICE Cocoa
|
-0.7%
|
ICE Sugar
|
-0.1%
|
ICE Orange Juice Conc.
|
+0.6%
|
CME Lumber
|
+1.6%
|
CME Live Cattle
|
+0.3%
|
Energy commodities have found traction on the nascent economic highlights of the day. With economic demand comes demand for energy resources, and so higher pricing. Looking at gold, take note that this latest decline in precious metals may offer the last great opportunity to defend against fiat currency disintegration. I would look for floors and opportunity to own mankind’s fallback currency. The trick is finding the most solid floor, rather than falling through level after level to the basement and breaking your bank account legs in the process.
Corporate Events
The buzz is still about Twitter (Nasdaq: TWTR) today and its high flying valuation. Still, the most active list below is full of very active shares.
HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
|
|
Company
|
Ticker
|
FRIDAY
|
|
Cogent Communications
|
Nasdaq: CCOI
|
Aqua America
|
NYSE: WTR
|
HMS Holdings
|
Nasdaq: HMSY
|
EW Scripps
|
NYSE: SSP
|
PICO Holdings
|
Nasdaq: PICO
|
NeuLion
|
OTC: NEUL
|
DiamondRock Hospitality
|
NYSE: DRH
|
Leap Wireless
|
Nasdaq: LEAP
|
Mobile Mini
|
Nasdaq: MINI
|
Cablevision
|
NYSE: CVC
|
Apollo Investment
|
Nasdaq: AINV
|
Mechanical Technology
|
Nasdaq: MKTY
|
Arbor Realty Trust
|
NYSE: ABR
|
Crosstex Energy
|
Nasdaq: XTEX
|
Geeknet
|
Nasdaq: GKNT
|
Magnum Hunter Resources
|
NYSE: MHR
|
McDonald’s
|
NYSE: MCD
|
Nathan’s Famous
|
Nasdaq: NATH
|
Revolution Lighting
|
Nasdaq: NEXS
|
Giga-tronics
|
Nasdaq: GIGA
|
BPZ Resources
|
NYSE: BPZ
|
Synutra International
|
Nasdaq: SYUT
|
United Community Financial
|
Nasdaq: UCFC
|
Isramco
|
Nasdaq: ISRL
|
Tesoro Logistics
|
NYSE: TLLP
|
MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
|
|
BIGGEST GAINERS
|
% Gain
|
Northwest Biotherapeutics (Nasdaq: NWBOW)
|
+103%
|
Santarus (Nasdaq: SNTS)
|
+38%
|
XG Technology (Nasdaq: XGTI)
|
+37%
|
Sequenom (Nasdaq: SQNM)
|
+25%
|
Revolution Lighting (Nasdaq: RVLT)
|
+24%
|
HMS Holdings (Nasdaq: HMSY)
|
+24%
|
Universal Display (Nasdaq: OLED)
|
+24%
|
Horizon Pharma (Nasdaq: HZNP)
|
+23%
|
Infinity Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: INFI)
|
+19%
|
Spherix Inc. (Nasdaq: SPEX)
|
+21%
|
BIGGEST LOSERS
|
% Drop
|
Sanofi (Nasdaq: GCVRZ)
|
-57%
|
Tremor Video (Nasdaq: TRMR)
|
-47%
|
Nuverra Environmental (NYSE: NES)
|
-32%
|
NetSol Technologies (Nasdaq: NTWK)
|
-29%
|
YuMe, Inc. (Nasdaq: YUME)
|
-23%
|
Uni-Pixel (Nasdaq: UNXL)
|
-20%
|
Erickson Air-Crane (NYSE: EAC)
|
-15%
|
Rocket Fuel (Nasdaq: FUEL)
|
-14%
|
AVG Technologies (NYSE: AVG)
|
-14%
|
Approach Resources (Nasdaq: AREX)
|
-12%
|
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Labels: Market-Outlook, Market-Outlook-2013-Q4
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