THURSDAY: Twitter Mania & Market Schizophrenia
Thursday’s Market
Market ETF
|
November 7
|
Year-to-Date
|
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)
|
-0.4%
|
+23.9%
|
SPDR Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA)
|
-0.1%
|
+20.3%
|
PowerShares (Nasdaq: QQQ)
|
-1.0%
|
+26.2%
|
U.S. stocks look to have hit their yearly highs by this point and profit taking is highly suggested here.
Economic Events
ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE
|
|||
Economic Data Point
|
Prior Period
|
Expected
|
Actual
|
THURSDAY
|
|||
GDP Report Q3 (Advance)
|
2.5%
|
2.0%
|
2.8%
|
-37.6
|
-37.9
|
||
345K
|
335K
|
336K
|
|
38 Bcf
|
35 Bcf
|
||
Chain Store Sales (Oct.)
|
|||
43.5%
|
43.8%
|
||
Consumer Credit (Sept.)
|
$13.6 B
|
$12.0 B
|
|
A schizophrenic economic situation is evident in the reported data versus forward expectations today. While third quarter GDP was reported stronger than expected today in its Advance report, economists across Wall Street are lowering their expectations for the fourth quarter. The catalyst may be a temporary one in the government shutdown and debt ceiling drivers, but political posturing indicates issues will continue again into 2014.
Employment data confirms that the more current economic situation is worse, not better. Today, though, weekly jobless claims improved a bit. The Employment Situation Report for the month of October is expected to show a different picture tomorrow, with just 120K net new jobs expected to be created. Even the unemployment rate is expected to deteriorate this time around, despite the fact that people are still dropping out of the workforce count and undermining the denominator.
Meanwhile, the consumer mood seems to be sliding even further, despite the conclusion of D.C. destructiveness. Today’s consumer comfort measure showed worsening consumer sentiment just ahead of the pivotal holiday shopping period. In fact, I heard on television last evening that a poll showed an increased number of Americans will not shop at all on Black Friday, which is historically one of the biggest shopping days of the year.
Overseas Markets
EUROPE
|
CLOSE
|
ASIA/PACIFIC
|
CLOSE
|
EURO STOXX 50
|
-0.4%
|
NIKKEI 225
|
-0.8%
|
German DAX
|
+0.5%
|
Hang Seng
|
-0.7%
|
CAC 40
|
-0.1%
|
S&P/ASX 200
|
-0.2%
|
FTSE 100
|
-0.7%
|
Korean KOSPI
|
-0.5%
|
Bloomberg GCC 200 Mideast
|
+0.7%
|
BSE India SENSEX
|
-0.4%
|
European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi unexpectedly cut euro-zone benchmark interest rates, citing a lack of inflation and an economy in need of further support. While this sent European shares lower today, since the mood was one of economic improvement and capital gains, stocks should recover tomorrow as investors realize their bank is behind them. The German market rallied on the day in contrast, and that offers another perspective. Perhaps investors in less developed nations are worried their buying power is weakening, while industrialized Germany sees this as a boon to industry; it’s something to consider.
Commodity Markets (Afternoon)
WTI Crude
|
-0.5%
|
Brent Crude
|
-1.4%
|
NYMEX Natural Gas
|
+1.3%
|
RBOB Gasoline
|
-1.9%
|
Gold Spot
|
-0.6%
|
Silver Spot
|
-0.6%
|
COMEX Copper
|
+0.3%
|
CBOT Corn
|
+0.4%
|
CBOT Wheat
|
+0.5%
|
CBOT Soybeans
|
+1.4%
|
ICE Cocoa
|
-1.9%
|
ICE Sugar
|
-0.2%
|
ICE Orange Juice Conc.
|
+0.1%
|
CME Lumber
|
+2.2%
|
CME Live Cattle
|
-0.1%
|
Lumber prices soared today, while cocoa fell sharply. Beyond individual catalysts, today’s ECB move forces dollar users to consider its relative strength. I’m seeing some chaos in this group today though, likely for commodity specific reasons (weather) and some confusion otherwise. For these reasons, I’m going to refrain from offering analytical description. I continue to have great concern for fiat currency globally over the long-term, which is an intolerable view for those full of pride and ego about their currencies, economies and personal wealth. What man never considers in his plan is the unexpected event, and dangers abound; and he tends to forget that he is cursed to toil as well, for those with understanding.
Corporate Events
Twitter (Nasdaq: TWTR) mania has gripped the market today, as the social media giant came to market through IPO. The stock is up 77% on the day, which for some is a sign of success. Truth be told, for those who were raising the capital, it seems they left some money on the table (they could have gotten more for their equity). Soon enough, though, investors will realize that the valuation of this issue is excessive, even on a relative basis to peers like Facebook (NYSE: FB) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG).
HIGHLIGHTED EPS REPORTS
|
|
Company
|
Ticker
|
THURSDAY
|
|
Visteon
|
NYSE: VC
|
US Concrete
|
Nasdaq: USCR
|
Rofin-Sinar
|
Nasdaq: RSTI
|
ANSYS
|
Nasdaq: ANSS
|
Alliant Energy
|
NYSE: LNT
|
Verso Paper
|
NYSE: VRS
|
Winthrop Realty Trust
|
NYSE: FUR
|
American Realty Capital
|
Nasdaq: ARCP
|
Martin Marietta
|
NYSE: MLM
|
Wendy’s
|
NYSE: WEN
|
Cinemark
|
NYSE: CNK
|
Fairway
|
Nasdaq: FWM
|
TCP Capital
|
Nasdaq: TCPC
|
Cedar Fair
|
NYSE: FUN
|
Meridian Bioscience
|
Nasdaq: VIVO
|
FTI Consulting
|
NYSE: FCN
|
OneBeacon
|
NYSE: OB
|
Memorial Production Partners
|
Nasdaq: MEMP
|
Kips Bay Medical
|
Nasdaq: KIPS
|
Repligen
|
Nasdaq: RGEN
|
Rentech
|
NYSE: RTK
|
Calpine
|
NYSE: CPN
|
StoneMor
|
Nasdaq: STON
|
Prestige Brands
|
NYSE: PBH
|
Cincinnati Bell
|
NYSE: CBB
|
AMC Networks
|
Nasdaq: AMCX
|
Kulicke & Soffa
|
Nasdaq: KLIC
|
Starwood
|
NYSE: STWD
|
Royal Gold
|
Nasdaq: RGLD
|
Koppers
|
NYSE: KOP
|
Tetra Technologies
|
NYSE: TTI
|
RBC Bearings
|
Nasdaq: ROLL
|
Harsco
|
NYSE: HSC
|
AES
|
NYSE: AES
|
Alliant Techsystems
|
NYSE: ATK
|
Fuel Systems Solutions
|
Nasdaq: FSYS
|
Health Net
|
NYSE: HNT
|
Chiquita
|
NYSE: CQB
|
Radian
|
NYSE: RDN
|
Rockwell Automation
|
NYSE: ROK
|
US Physical Therapy
|
Nasdaq: USPH
|
Beazer Homes
|
NYSE: BZH
|
TreeHouse Foods
|
NYSE: THS
|
James River Coal
|
Nasdaq: JRCC
|
Gartner
|
NYSE: IT
|
Groupon
|
Nasdaq: GRPN
|
Double Eagle Petroleum
|
Nasdaq: DBLE
|
Wet Seal
|
Nasdaq: WTSLA
|
Costco
|
Nasdaq: COST
|
Discovery Laboratories
|
Nasdaq: DSCO
|
PharmAthene
|
NYSE: PIP
|
Jones Soda
|
Nasdaq: JSDA
|
Gap
|
NYSE: GPS
|
EOG Resources
|
NYSE: EOG
|
Main Street Capital
|
NYSE: MAIN
|
Clean Energy Fuels
|
Nasdaq: CLNE
|
Echelon
|
Nasdaq: ELON
|
Annie’s
|
Nasdaq: BNNY
|
Summit Midstream
|
Nasdaq: SMLP
|
National Fuel Gas
|
NYSE: NFG
|
Rentrak
|
Nasdaq: RENT
|
Autobytel
|
Nasdaq: ABTL
|
NVIDIA
|
Nasdaq: NVDA
|
Gaiam
|
Nasdaq: GAIA
|
Pixelworks
|
Nasdaq: PXLW
|
Bebe stores
|
Nasdaq: BEBE
|
Raptor Pharmaceutical
|
Nasdaq: RPTP
|
Westar Energy
|
NYSE: WR
|
Nelnet
|
NYSE: NNI
|
Molycorp
|
NYSE: MCP
|
Capstone Turbine
|
Nasdaq: CPST
|
Walt Disney
|
NYSE: DIS
|
MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
|
|
BIGGEST GAINERS
|
% Gain
|
Twitter (Nasdaq: TWTR)
|
+77%
|
Geron (Nasdaq: GERN)
|
+76%
|
NeuroMetrix (Nasdaq: NURO)
|
+40%
|
LivePerson (Nasdaq: LPSN)
|
+24%
|
Higher One (NYSE: ONE)
|
+22%
|
Celidex Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CLDX)
|
+20%
|
Heska (Nasdaq: HSKA)
|
+19%
|
DexCom (Nasdaq: DXCM)
|
+21%
|
Westell Technologies (Nasdaq: WSTL)
|
+19%
|
St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE)
|
+17%
|
BIGGEST LOSERS
|
% Drop
|
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: NBY)
|
-43%
|
InnerWorkings (Nasdaq: INWK)
|
-36%
|
China Sunergy (Nasdaq: CSUN)
|
-26%
|
Checkpoint Systems (NYSE: CKP)
|
-23%
|
Novatel Wireless (Nasdaq: NVTL)
|
-23%
|
Suntech Power (NYSE: STP)
|
-23%
|
Response Genetics (Nasdaq: RGDX)
|
-21%
|
Ion Geophysical (NYSE: IO)
|
-18%
|
Oxygen Biotherapeutics (Nasdaq: OXBT)
|
-18%
|
Career Education (Nasdaq: CECO)
|
-19%
|
Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
Labels: Market-Outlook, Market-Outlook-2013-Q4
posted by The Greek | 1:58 PM
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