Wall Street Greek

Editor's Picks | Energy | Market Outlook | Gold | Real Estate | Stocks | Politics
Wall Street, Greek

The Wall Street Greek blog is the sexy & syndicated financial securities markets publication of former Senior Equity Analyst Markos N. Kaminis. Our stock market blog reaches reputable publishers & private networks and is an unbiased, independent Wall Street research resource on the economy, stocks, gold & currency, energy & oil, real estate and more. Wall Street & Greece should be as honest, dependable and passionate as The Greek.


Seeking Alpha

Friday, February 11, 2011

Pharaoh Speaks, Egypt Shakes

Pharaoh Speaks Egypt shakes Mubarak leaves Cairo
Egypt Insists

Reports from Egypt state that President Mubarak has left the capitol, and after protests intensified, has also let go of control of the nation. Wall Street Greek Global Affairs Analyst Daniel Padovano discusses and analyzes how a bridge to new government might progress from here. Mr. Padovano is a Historian and Geopolitics Expert, with a focus on Middle Eastern Affairs.


Relative Tickers: NYSE: EGPT, NYSE: VOD, OTC: EGYMF.PK, OTC: TEGPY.PK, Nasdaq: TRAMX, Nasdaq: TRIAX, NYSE: CEL, AMEX: ISL, NYSE: NOC, NYSE: RTN, NYSE: ATK, NYSE: LMT, NYSE: BA, NYSE: HON, NYSE: GD, NYSE: COL, NYSE: GR, NYSE: LLL, NYSE: SAI, Nasdaq: FLIR, NYSE: ERJ, NYSE: SPR, Nasdaq: BEAV, NYSE: TDG, NYSE: CAE, NYSE: HXL, NYSE: ESL, NYSE: TDY, NYSE: CW, NYSE: HEI, NYSE: TGI, NYSE: ORB, NYSE: AIR, Nasdaq: KAMN, Nasdaq: AVAV, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: HAL, NYSE: SLB, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: COP, NYSE: NBL, NYSE: BHI, NYSE: SII, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ

Pharaoh Speaks, Egypt Shakes



Egypt geopolitical analystLast evening, President Mubarak addressed Egypt. It was widely expected that he announce his resignation. That did not happen; instead, President Mubarak announced that he would remain as President so he could oversee the transition and political reforms. Mubarak did transfer some of his Presidential powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman. Since the speech, turmoil and frustration in Egypt greatly increased.

Demonstrations spread to more government related locations, including the state broadcasting center and the Presidential Palace. Those opposing President Mubarak and his regime wanted nothing less than for Mubarak to officially leave office, which occurred by the people's will this morning.

The Egyptian military's High Command issued a telling statement yesterday prior to Mubarak's address. In that statement, the military reiterated that it is "the guardian of the Motherland". This is true, as the military has ruled Egypt since the 1952 Free Officer's Revolution. All of Egypt's presidents: Naguib, Nasir, Sadat and Mubarak were military officers.

The legitimacy of that revolution is now questioned and doubted by the public. That reality and blame is Mubarak's. A large majority of Egypt's population have known no other regime other than that descended from the 1952 revolution. The people of Egypt believe that Mubarak has betrayed them; the real threat to Mubarak's tenure was that the military might share that same sentiment. If so, then Mubarak would become the military's, and therefore the Revolution's, most dangerous liability. As that threat played out into reality, Egypt could wait no longer.

Military intervention thus became very likely to maintain public order and to maintain Egypt. The goals of the 1952 Free Officer's Movement (and) Revolution were to make Egypt a modern state. The revolution is secular and nationalistic in nature; religious parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood and liberal parties such as the Wafd were seen as dangers to this. It is highly unlikely that the military would abdicate its "guardian" role and allow mob rule or the Muslim Brotherhood to change Egypt.

The situation was not sustainable as Mubarak left it last evening. Egyptians were being hurt, and the military so far has not demonstrated any sign that it will risk the good will and respect the public has for it. On the other hand, it is doubtful that the military will allow "mob rule" to threaten the country. At some point, the protesters and the state regime will have to meet. The very survival of Egypt as it is known today is at stake.

As Mubarak has acceded to demands to leave office, or been assisted in that decision, the military will most likely intervene at least as an overseer. Any transition and reforms will be the responsibility of the military and whatever power centers are called in to manage change. Public resentment of authoritarian rule is very high, and thus a prolonged military rule will probably be rejected (in time) as well.

The 1952 Revolution shook off a weak and corrupted monarchy and brought Egypt directly into the modern era. The goal of Egyptians ruling themselves may very well be the legacy of that Revolution, although not in a manner envisioned by the Free Officers of 1952.

Egypt forum message board chat

This article should interest investors in: Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSE: EGPT), Egyptian Mobile (OTC: EGYMF.PK), Telecom Egypt (OTC: TEGPY.PK), T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East (Nasdaq: TRAMX), T. Rowe Price Institutional Africa & Middle East (Nasdaq: TRIAX), Cellcom Israel (NYSE: CEL), Aberdeen Israel Fund (AMEX: ISL), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Boeing (NYSE: BA), NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), HEICO (NYSE: HEI), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Kaman Corp. (Nasdaq: KAMN), AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV), Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC), DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), Hawk (AMEX: HWK), LMI Aerospace (Nasdaq: LMIA), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

hair coloring 10028 New York

Labels: , , ,

free email financial newsletter Bookmark and Share

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home