To Declare China a Currency Manipulator or Not

That is the Question!

And it will be answered this week, when the US Treasury publishes its report on the currency and trade activities of our trading partners. The report is centered around China, and recent hearings have implied that Treasury Chief Geithner might finally formally write what he spoke almost immediately into his tenure at the Treasury, that China is indeed manipulating its currency and affecting trade in an unfair manner. Between this report, International Trade data and the Import/Export Prices release, and given China's big Communist confab, the theme of our copy is clear this week.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

(Tickers: NYSE: GE, Nasdaq: CABL, NYSE: ENZ, NYSE: FHN, NYSE: GCI, NYSE: GPC, Nasdaq: INFY, NYSE: KNL, NYSE: MAT, NYSE: PBR, NYSE: WBS, NYSE: GPS, Nasdaq: HALO, NYSE: RTP, Nasdaq: GOOG, NYSE: AMD, NYSE: SWY, NYSE: GWW, Nasdaq: CBSH, Nasdaq: CBST, NYSE: FCS, Nasdaq: HRLY, NYSE: IDT, Nasdaq: JOEZ, Nasdaq: LSTR, Nasdaq: MSW, AMEX: NG, NYSE: VMI, NYSE: WGO, NYSE: CHK, NYSE: JPM, Nasdaq: ACGY, Nasdaq: ADTN, Nasdaq: APOL, Nasdaq: ASML, Nasdaq: ADAT, Nasdaq: OZRK, NYSE: CMN, NYSE: DAB, NYSE: HST, Nasdaq: IGTE, Nasdaq: MTOX, Nasdaq: SPTN, Nasdaq: TESS, Nasdaq: UFPI, Nasdaq: WDFC, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: BLX, Nasdaq: CNBKA, NYSE: CSX, Nasdaq: EXFO, Nasdaq: FAST, NYSE: KED, Nasdaq: KMGB, NYSE: MG, NYSE: ODC, Nasdaq: SURG, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ)

To Declare China a Currency Manipulator or Not? That is the Question!

The Weekly Schedule:

By The Greek,

We covered Monday's stock market schedule in an earlier article. While the bond market was closed on Columbus Day, along with many government and private organizations, the stock market was open in the United States.

Tuesday

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its September meeting at 2:00 PM ET Tuesday. With QE2 (quantitative easing II) at the tip of everyone's tongues these days, and market trading tied to it too, every word within the meeting minutes will be viewed from a certain perspective Tuesday. It's hard to say how the market will find the information, but it has priced in expectations for easing and is looking for reasons to believe in it. In the end, I think it's possible the market might be let down by less action than the blockbuster moves it seems to demand at this point. And we wonder how much zip the Fed's last few bullets have.

At 11:45 AM, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig addresses the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) at its annual meeting in Denver. Hoenig plans to speak to the economic outlook and monetary policy challenges.

Seeking to cure one of the many recent ailments of Wall Street, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold a hearing to receive reporting on the flash crash of this past year and high-frequency trading, which was at the root of it. Meanwhile President Obama will hold a tele-town meeting targeted to get the youth vote out in November. The event will be co-hosted by MTV, BET and CMT moderators.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reports on Weekly Same-Store Sales in the premarket Tuesday as always. There is no forecast to mark against, but last week's result for the period ending October 2 showed a drop in weekly sales of 0.8%. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased 2.4%. Redbook also measures the year-to-year change weekly, and reported a 2.7% increase. Both signified slower rates of growth versus recent trend. Monthly Retail Sales is due later in the week.

Markets will be closed in Venezuela and Brazil Tuesday.

The New York Value Investing Congress meets today. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) hold investor meetings. Denbury Resources Inc. (NYSE: DNR) presents at the IPAA Oil & Gas Investment Symposium San Francisco. Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) appears in the Pacific Crest Hosted Bus Tour.

The EPS schedule includes news from Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S.A (NYSE: BLX), Century Bancorp (Nasdaq: CNBKA), CSX (NYSE: CSX), Exfo Electro-Optical Engineering (Nasdaq: EXFO), Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST), Kayne Anderson Energy (NYSE: KED), KMG Chemicals (Nasdaq: KMGB), Mistras Group (NYSE: MG), Oil-Dri Corp. of America (NYSE: ODC) and Synergetics USA (Nasdaq: SURG).

Wednesday

The SEC is scheduled to vote on derivatives rules under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

The Import/Export Prices data release at 8:30 AM ET might get a bit more attention than usual Wednesday, given the emphasis on China and fair trade this week. Economists see import prices declining 0.2% in September, which compares to a 0.6% increase in August. 58% of the import price rise in August was attributable to a 1.7% increase in fuel prices, but the remainder, still a good portion of imports, rose 0.3% and contributed as well. Export prices increased 0.8% in August, driven largely by a 4.2% increase in the price of agricultural goods. Wheat prices, especially, have risen on Russia's export ban and weather impact to its supply, and the global disruption it has caused.

The Mortgage Bankers Association last week reported that an October 4 change in FHA loan requirements likely spurred last minute purchase activity. In the week ending October 1, the Market Composite Index of mortgage volume decreased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, the Purchase Index rose 9.3% on demand for FHA applications. If that's the case, we should see some more impact in this week's report. The Refinance Index decreased by 2.5%, despite decreases in the contracted rate for the average fixed rate mortgage. 30-year rates dropped to 4.25% from 4.38%, while 15-year contracts fell to 3.73%, from 3.77%. This is the kind of thing that troubles Pimco's Bill Gross, and makes him speak of financial crisis and leads us to speak of economic muscle attrition. When rates decrease, economic activity is supposed to increase! Troubling...

Look for September's Treasury Budget data at 2:00 PM ET. Economists expect September to show a $32.0 billion deficit. Over the past five and ten year periods, September has produced reliable surpluses of $41.0 billion and $39.9 billion on average, respectively, but last year's period produced a deficit of $45.2 billion, given the economic situation. For the fiscal year-to-date through August, the treasury budget deficit stood at $1.26 trillion.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke contributes to the discussion on business innovation at a Cleveland Fed event in Pittsburgh. Look for Bernanke's remarks around 4:10 PM ET. At 6:45 PM ET, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker addresses business leaders in Chapel Hill, NC.

The corporate docket includes Chesapeake Energy's (NYSE: CHK) Institutional Investor & Analyst Meeting. The EPS schedule keys on reports from J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Acergy S.A. (Nasdaq: ACGY), ADTRAN (Nasdaq: ADTN), Apollo Group (Nasdaq: APOL), ASML Holdings (Nasdaq: ASML), Authentidate Holding (Nasdaq: ADAT), Bank of the Ozarks (Nasdaq: OZRK), Cantel Medical (NYSE: CMN), Dave & Buster's (NYSE: DAB), Host Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HST), iGate (Nasdaq: IGTE), MEDTOX Scientific (Nasdaq: MTOX), Spartan Stores (Nasdaq: SPTN), Tessco (Nasdaq: TESS), Universal Forest Products (Nasdaq: UFPI) and WD-40 (Nasdaq: WDFC).

Thursday

Again, with China in the headlines, the International Trade Report will get more than its usual attention at 8:30 AM ET. This latest report covering August is expected to show the trade gap expanded to $44.3 billion, from the $42.8 billion deficit posted in July.

The Producer Price Index for September is due at 8:30 as well. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Headline PPI to show a 0.1% increase, matching against the 0.4% jump seen in August. Core PPI is expected to have increased by 0.1% as well, following the August gain of the same rate.

Weekly Jobless Claims fell by 11K last week, to 445K. The four-week moving average marked its sixth straight decline, moving to 455,750. This week's data covers the period ending October 9, and has economists looking for a reading of 443K. And, The Greek has been sensing improvement in these figures; could sub-400K be in our near future? We think so, but so what. We need economic expansion and job growth. Who is left to fire anyway?

OPEC meets this week, and the consortium is expected to maintain its production quotas at current levels. The EIA reports on both Petroleum and Natural Gas on Thursday this week, due to the holiday. Look for the Natural Gas Report at its usual 10:30 reporting time, and the Petroleum Report at 11:00. Last week's natural gas data, covering the period ending October 1, showed natural gas inventory increased by 85 Bcf. At current levels, natural gas inventory stands 149 Bcf less than last year at this time and 220 Bcf above the 5-year average. In the period ending October 1, crude oil inventory increased by 3.1 million barrels. Total motor gasoline inventory decreased by 2.6 million barrels. Both gas and oil stood above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

The U.S. Business Council meets Thursday. In corporate news, look for Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Halozyme (Nasdaq: HALO) to hold analyst meetings. Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) reports on its third-quarter output. The EPS schedule highlights reports from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), Safeway (NYSE: SWY), W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW), Commerce Bancshares (Nasdaq: CBSH), Cubist Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: CBST), Fairchild Semiconductor Int’l (NYSE: FCS), Herley Industries (Nasdaq: HRLY), IDT Corp. (NYSE: IDT), Joe's Jeans (Nasdaq: JOEZ), Landstar System (Nasdaq: LSTR), Mission West Properties (Nasdaq: MSW), NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG), Valmont (NYSE: VMI) and Winnebago (NYSE: WGO).

Friday

The holiday shortened week concludes with a bang. The news schedule will be powerful even before the five economic report releases hit the wire.

The US Treasury is due to publish its highly anticipated report on foreign countries' exchange rate policies. This is the report in which the Treasury might label China a currency manipulator, and trade war might ensue. We are looking for less poignant language, but still a stronger message to be sent China's way this time around. At least that's what was implied in the latest Congressional hearings on the subject. Meanwhile, on the same day, China's Communist Party Central Committee holds its annual meeting, from which perhaps a rebuttal might come. Also, a World Policy Conference is occurring in Morocco on global governance Friday.

"The market will be monitoring Bernanke for any signs of quantitative easing. Hopefully, he's taken his medicine to stop that uncomfortable sounding situation though."

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the Boston Fed's conference on Revisiting Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment Friday morning at 8:15 AM ET. The timely topic has market enthusiasts giddy for potential hints with regard to QE2. The market will be monitoring Bernanke for any signs of quantitative easing. Hopefully, he's taken his medicine to stop that uncomfortable sounding situation though. Also in the early morning, look for Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart's Q&A session with the Executive Women of Goizueta, in Atlanta.

Retail Sales are due for the month of September at 8:30 AM ET. Economists are looking for an increase of 0.5% this time around, with ex-auto sales rising 0.4%. Sales increased 0.4% in August and 0.6% when excluding automobiles.

The Consumer Price Index is also due for September at 8:30. Economists see the Headline CPI increasing 0.2%, and Core CPI rising 0.1%. That would compare against August change of +0.3% and 0%, respectively, in August.

Look for the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 as well. The New York Fed's reading of area manufacturing is expected to mark the General Business Conditions Index at 8.0, which compares to 4.14 in September.

At 9:55 AM, catch the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. This mid-month reading is expected to show confidence gained slightly, with economists forecasting the metric to mark 69.0, versus 68.2 at the end of September. That is an insignificant change folks, so be careful not to read too much into it if the result matches expectations.

Business Inventories are due for August at 10:00 AM ET. Economists see an increase of 0.4%, versus the 1.0% gain in July. We'll need to see sales rise at a faster pace for any enthusiasm to build around the data-point.

The Rock & Roll Pop Auction is taking place; it will be run by Gotta Have It!

If you filed for an extension to file your taxes, today is likely your deadline to finally do so.

Look for EPS results from GE (NYSE: GE), China Cablecom (Nasdaq: CABL), Enzo Biochem (NYSE: ENZ), First Horizon National (NYSE: FHN), Gannett (NYSE: GCI), Genuine Parts (NYSE: GPC), Infosys Technologies (Nasdaq: INFY), Knoll (NYSE: KNL), Mattel (NYSE: MAT), Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) and Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS).



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.