Did Obama Leak Employment Data in his Bowie Stump Speech?

President Obama gave a stump speech today in support of Democratic candidates at Bowie State University in Bowie, Maryland. Within it he discussed the streak of gains in private nonfarm payrolls. Is he implying something about September's result, which will be reported Friday morning? He must already know the numbers...

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Did Obama Leak Employment Data in his Bowie Stump Speech?

At his campaign speech for Maryland Democrats at Bowie State University, the President may have revealed something about the Employment Situation Report for the month of September. President Obama noted that private sector jobs have grown eight months in a row, which measures through August. Those were his words. Since its December 2009 low, the private sector has added 763K jobs on net, and so we know it has grown from the low each month. The count reaches eight through August's report, and so he has not told us directly what September will show. But what does he imply by bringing the subject up one day ahead of the latest data?

The President must be aware by now of the Employment numbers for September. There are two ways to look at his statement today. Either he highlighted his point about private sector job growth because he knows it continued in September, it's on his mind, and he will talk about it again tomorrow, or he said it because he realized this would be his last chance to make the point (if September marks a decrease in private payrolls). I would lean toward the first point, because if September's data alters the trend, then his point renders mute to the people he spoke to today. However, the likelihood of a broader audience hearing the news was slim (until now), so perhaps strategists just banked on an unsophisticated audience not noticing any change should it be pending...

ADP's estimate for the private sector job market indicates its expectations for a 39K decrease in September, which would end that eight month streak. If the Labor Department's report shows growth, it would not be the first time the tally did not closely match ADP's estimate.

So the question is then, what does the President know, and how did it affect his speech today.

What do you think?

More on his Speech

The President's stump speech keyed on a choice. He noted to the college crowd that the Republican candidates would like to reduce spending for education, and he pointed out Maryland's nation leading education record (for its public schools).

In response to his statement about the Republicans, and in telling fashion, the President declared that for as long as he is President and the Democrats control Congress, he will not cut education spending while allowing the tax breaks for the rich to continue. So he offered voters a choice, tax breaks for the wealthy (vote Republican) or education support (vote Democrat). Given the target audience was dominated by a college crowd, it has now been well geared to vote Democrat.

So the Democratic political argument is centered on where spending will be reduced, while the Republican party calls the tax cut an economic stimulant (despite little spending effect) and focuses on the general accusation of a spend happy Democratic Party and fiscal imprudence.

I have to say that the President was on top of his game, delivering a powerful and convincing stump speech, well directed and well said. He was both personal and convincing.

I remind you that I am an Independent voter.



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