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Thursday, October 07, 2010

Did Obama Leak Employment Data in his Bowie Stump Speech?

Obama leaks employment report data in Bowie Stump speech
President Obama gave a stump speech today in support of Democratic candidates at Bowie State University in Bowie, Maryland. Within it he discussed the streak of gains in private nonfarm payrolls. Is he implying something about September's result, which will be reported Friday morning? He must already know the numbers...

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Did Obama Leak Employment Data in his Bowie Stump Speech?



political analystAt his campaign speech for Maryland Democrats at Bowie State University, the President may have revealed something about the Employment Situation Report for the month of September. President Obama noted that private sector jobs have grown eight months in a row, which measures through August. Those were his words. Since its December 2009 low, the private sector has added 763K jobs on net, and so we know it has grown from the low each month. The count reaches eight through August's report, and so he has not told us directly what September will show. But what does he imply by bringing the subject up one day ahead of the latest data?

The President must be aware by now of the Employment numbers for September. There are two ways to look at his statement today. Either he highlighted his point about private sector job growth because he knows it continued in September, it's on his mind, and he will talk about it again tomorrow, or he said it because he realized this would be his last chance to make the point (if September marks a decrease in private payrolls). I would lean toward the first point, because if September's data alters the trend, then his point renders mute to the people he spoke to today. However, the likelihood of a broader audience hearing the news was slim (until now), so perhaps strategists just banked on an unsophisticated audience not noticing any change should it be pending...

ADP's estimate for the private sector job market indicates its expectations for a 39K decrease in September, which would end that eight month streak. If the Labor Department's report shows growth, it would not be the first time the tally did not closely match ADP's estimate.

So the question is then, what does the President know, and how did it affect his speech today.

What do you think?

More on his Speech

The President's stump speech keyed on a choice. He noted to the college crowd that the Republican candidates would like to reduce spending for education, and he pointed out Maryland's nation leading education record (for its public schools).

In response to his statement about the Republicans, and in telling fashion, the President declared that for as long as he is President and the Democrats control Congress, he will not cut education spending while allowing the tax breaks for the rich to continue. So he offered voters a choice, tax breaks for the wealthy (vote Republican) or education support (vote Democrat). Given the target audience was dominated by a college crowd, it has now been well geared to vote Democrat.

So the Democratic political argument is centered on where spending will be reduced, while the Republican party calls the tax cut an economic stimulant (despite little spending effect) and focuses on the general accusation of a spend happy Democratic Party and fiscal imprudence.

I have to say that the President was on top of his game, delivering a powerful and convincing stump speech, well directed and well said. He was both personal and convincing.

I remind you that I am an Independent voter.

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5 Comments:

Blogger JB said...

How could ADP be that far off? Give them a 10% margin of error, that is at best, a 35,000 private sector loss. Didn't the FED also cut 70,000 Census jobs? I know that isn't private sector, but tomorrow seems to be setting up for a nasty number. Add to that State and Municipal reductions, you could get a headline # of 131,000 job losses in September.

5:18 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're usually a realistic thinker, but there is something about Obama that makes you think illogically.

Federal education spending is a waste. That is, the increased spending does not improve student performance.

Federal Education spending is just a subsidy to teacher's unions and overwhelminly liberal colleges.

So, basically, Obama is not taking any tough, bold or even new stand....he's pandering to traditional democratic constituents. Marvelous.

5:35 PM  
Anonymous The Greek said...

Anonymous,

I wonder if I'm "illogical about Obama" because of your political party affiliation. I've noticed this is often the case when I take a position on either side of the table!

The main theme of the article was to explore the possibility that Obama knows the numbers and is signaling something. Like an opposing baseball team, we should try to read his body language and in this case wording to get a lead on Friday's release. I was not trying to do so when watching C-SPAN today though; I just happened upon the statement and it struck me as possibly important.

I only include other discussion of his speech, because I watched it and found it powerful and moving. I thought readers of both parties would have found it an interesting view. Did you know he was heckled and also several people fainted at the event... It was very strange.

I'm not an expert in everything, and I hear your argument regarding education spending. I'm sure there are some hard core Dems who will differ in view, and likely offer a similarly convincing argument. They are welcome to do so, as I think our readers would like to know how this is viewed by the other side as well.

Thank you for your insight. It is sincerely appreciated, welcomed and requested for the future.

10:29 PM  
Anonymous Greek said...

Uncle,

I was expecting a poor result Friday as well, until Obama made his statement. I just cannot understand why he would highlight the fact if the trend will change tomorrow.

10:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why make the assumption (to Anon) that Fed Ed spending is a waste and that it only goes to unions and liberal colleges? Sounds like ideology to me.

You know, there are countries where Federal subsidies do something called "leveling the playing field" for communities in working class areas. Seems a good thing to me.

11:22 AM  

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